Baseball is one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 12-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Justin Verlander ($10,400 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel)
- Aaron Nola ($8,900 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel)
- Robbie Ray ($8,300 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel)
No one stands out as overwhelming chalk on today’s slate, but Verlander, Nola, and Ray are all expected to garner around 30% ownership. Verlander will be on the road against the Twins, while Nola and Ray will be squaring off against each other in Seattle.
Let’s start with Verlander. He’s missed basically each of the past two seasons while recovering from an arm injury, but he’s picked up right where he left off in 2022. He’s pitched to a 1.93 ERA through his first five starts, and he’s now one of the betting favorites to win the AL Cy Young.
However, there are reasons to expect some regression with Verlander moving forward. For starters, his strikeout rate is way down compared to his peak. He’s managed just 8.54 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is well below his mark of 12.11 in 2019. That means he’s relied more on recording outs on balls in play, which he’s done a phenomenal job of. He’s limited opposing batters to a .192 batting average on balls in play, which is absurdly low. Verlander has always done a great job of limiting damage on balls in play, but expecting some regression is reasonable.
Conversely, Nola is someone who I expect better results for moving forward. He has been one of the few pitchers this season that has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. A whopping 21.4% of his fly balls have turned into homers, which is much higher than his career rate of 14.2%.
The homers have really been the only blemish for Nola to start the year. He’s striking out over 10.6 batters per nine innings, and he’s posted a 51.9% groundball rate. If he can get the homers under control – which is very reasonable given the decline in home runs this season – he could be poised for a huge year.
Finally, Ray has been arguably the biggest surprise at pitcher this season. He was always expected to see some regression – 2021 stands out as a major outlier for his career – but strikeouts have never been an issue for Ray. He might walk the entire ballpark, but Ray has posted a K/9 of at least 11.25 in every season since 2016.
That makes his mark of 7.54 through his first six starts this season very concerning. His average fastball velocity is also down nearly 1.5 miles per hour, which is a serious issue. It’s too early to write off Ray completely, but if he can’t find his strikeout form, he’s going to struggle to return fantasy value.
Ray also faces a tough matchup on Tuesday. The Phillies’ offense hasn’t been as potent as expected to start the year, but they’re still loaded with quality power bats. They also have a ton of good hitters from the right-handed batter’s box – Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto to name a few – and right-handed batters have given Ray trouble this season.
Overall, Ray is easily the pitcher I’m least interested in of this trio. There’s a chance I fade him completely, but I will definitely be way underweight compared to the rest of the field. I’ll also be underweight on Verlander, with Nola serving as my favorite option of this group.
Alternative Pitching Options
