Baseball is one of my favorite sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 12-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Justin Verlander ($10,600 on DraftKings, $10,900 on FanDuel)
- Carlos Rodon ($10,300 on DraftKings, $9,900 on FanDuel)
- Jeffrey Springs ($6,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel)
Tuesday’s slate is loaded with strong pitching options. That includes plenty of high-priced studs, with four pitchers priced at $10,000 or higher on DraftKings.
Of that group, Rodon figures to be the most popular option, and he could realistically approach 40% ownership. Rodon has pitched to a 3.44 ERA to start the year, but that undersells how good he’s been. He’s racked up nearly 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but opposing batters have managed a .333 batting average on balls in play. With some better luck in that department moving forward, he should be able to drop his ERA under three.
However, Rodon’s matchup vs. the Rockies isn’t quite as good as it appears on paper. The Rockies have fared well against southpaws so far this season, even away from the friendly confines of Coors Field. They rank sixth in wRC+ against southpaws on the road, and they’re just 19th in strikeout rate in that split.
Rodon’s Vegas data in this spot is still elite – 3.3 opponent implied team total, -226 moneyline odds – but I’d rather look elsewhere given the massive projected ownership.
Verlander’s ownership should be a touch more reasonable, and his Vegas data is even better than Rodon’s. He’s taking on the Mariners, who are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs, while Verlander is a slate-best -252 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.06 (per the Trends tool).
Verlander hasn’t been quite as impressive as Rodon from a strikeout perspective, averaging just 8.49 per nine innings through his first 10 starts. His strikeout rate still ranks in the 68th percentile, but it’s far from elite. The Mariners aren’t a great matchup for strikeouts either, ranking 16th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers.
Overall, neither of these options looks like a slam dunk. There are enough question marks to warrant being underweight to both players.
Springs is the toughest fade in this group. He’s priced at just $6,300 on DraftKings, which is insanely cheap. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Springs has done nothing but provide value at this salary. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his five previous outings, and he’s remained effective as he’s been stretched out. He’s lasted at least five innings in each of his past three starts, and he’s allowed just four earned runs with 20 strikeouts over that time frame.
Springs draws a tough matchup for fantasy purposes against the Cardinals, who have been one of the toughest teams to strike out this season. However, their batted-ball data remains subpar. They own the second-lowest hard-hit rate and the fourth-lowest average exit velocity, so Springs should be able to limit the damage on balls in play.
Overall, Springs may not have as much upside as usual in this matchup, but he’s extremely reliable at this price tag. That makes him a better option for cash games than tournaments, but he still warrants exposure.
Alternative DFS Pitching Options
