Baseball is one of my favorite sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 13-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Nestor Cortes ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)
- Sean Manaea ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel)
Cortes and Manaea are both expected to command greater than 30% ownership on DraftKings, and it wouldn’t shock me if Manaea was over 40%. Not only does he have one of the best matchups of the day, but his $9,000 salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. That’s going to make him tough for most people to avoid.
Manaea is taking on the Diamondbacks, who have been an extremely favorable target against left-handed pitchers. They rank just 26th in wRC+ in that split, and they also have the ninth-highest strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks are also implied for just 3.4 runs, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Manaea has put together arguably the best season of his career in his first year with the Padres. His 9.37 K/9 is the second-best mark of his career, as is his 3.55 xERA. Both of his previous career bests came in different seasons, so this has been his most complete year for fantasy purposes.
Still, there are some red flags with Manaea on Tuesday. His Statcast profile remains subpar, ranking in the 22nd percentile for average exit velocity and the 43rd percentile for hard-hit rate. Manaea boasts just a .262 batting average on balls in play, so he has gotten a bit lucky in that department.
Additionally, the Diamondbacks have gotten a bit of sharp support, and they’ll have a quality pitcher of their own on the mound in Zac Gallen. That makes Manaea just a -130 favorite, and with Manny Machado likely still out, Manaea owns a bit lower win probability than usual.
Overall, Manaea dominates the projections in our MLB Models, owning the top median and ceiling marks in THE BAT at just the sixth-highest salary. That’s a tough combination to fade, but I think being underweight is the correct strategy.
Cortes is the tougher pitcher to make a case against. He entered the year with virtually no fanfare, but he has emerged as the best pitcher on the best staff in baseball. He’s pitched to an absurd 1.94 ERA through his first 12 starts, and his 2.34 xERA suggests he hasn’t been particularly lucky.
He possesses an elite ceiling every time he takes the mound, and his ceiling is amplified Tuesday vs. the Rays. They own the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, so Cortes should be able to pile up whiffs in this spot. The Rays implied team total of 3.1 runs is also the lowest mark on the slate, and Cortes figures to be a sizable favorite when the betting line is posted. There is quite simply nothing not to like about this matchup.
Even with his inflated ownership, Cortes is someone I will have plenty of on Tuesday. His ceiling projection trails Manaea’s in our MLB Models, but I think it’s substantially higher.
Alternative DFS Pitchers
