Baseball is officially back, and it’s one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 11-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Carlos Rodon ($10,100 on DraftKings, $11,100 on FanDuel)
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,300 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel)
Rodon is expected to be the highest-owned pitcher by a wide margin on Tuesday. His ownership could approach 60% on DraftKings, and I would expect it to hover around 40% on FanDuel.
However, Rodon looks like the definition of “good chalk” on this slate. He leads all pitchers in a variety of pitching metrics, including opponent implied team total (2.5 runs) and K Prediction (7.42). His -270 moneyline odds also rank second on the slate, trailing only Luis Severino’s mark of -288.
Add it all up, and it’s hard to get away from Rodon vs. the Athletics. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.26 (per the Trends tool).
The matchup vs. the A’s is also elite. Their lineup has been feeble to start the year, particularly against southpaws. They rank just 24th in wRC+, and they also have the third-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Finally, Rodon benefits from getting to pitch in one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. Oracle Park in San Francisco is basically the anti-Coors Field. Rodon was already one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, so he has the potential for a career year with the Giants. He’s off to a phenomenal start, pitching to a 1.06 ERA and a 0.89 FIP through his first three outings.
The only question is how much exposure to Rodon is warranted? I will personally be targeting somewhere around 40-50% on DraftKings and 20-30% on FanDuel. That might make me slightly underweight to the field, but it doesn’t leave me drawing dead if he dominates.
Rodriguez is the other pitcher expected to carry significant ownership on Tuesday, particularly on DraftKings at $6,300. People are going to jam in Rodon and the Dodgers’ offense, so E-Rod’s cheap price tag is a nice way to fit both together.
However, it’s much harder to make a case for Rodriguez. For starters, he simply hasn’t been very good this season. He owns a 4.62 xERA and a 4.53 FIP, and he’s given up a ton of hard contact. Opposing batters have a 53.5% hard-hit rate vs. Rodriguez to start the year, including a 9.3% barrel rate. Rodriguez isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, so he needs a better Statcast profile if he’s going to improve moving forward.
The Twins offense has been average against southpaws to start the year, but Byron Buxton has been a one-man wrecking crew. He’s posted a 289 wRC+ vs. southpaws, and he’s launched three homers in just 13 plate appearances.
Ultimately, I’ll be vastly underweight on Rodriguez and overweight on Buxton and Twins’ stacks in this spot.
Alternative Pitching Options
