Baseball is officially back, and it’s one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 11-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Corbin Burnes ($10,500 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel)
- Joe Musgrove ($8,600 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel)
Burnes and Musgrove stand out as the two chalkiest pitchers on Tuesday, at least on DraftKings. Musgrove should be a bit more contrarian on FanDuel given his $11,000 salary, but he can be deployed alongside Burnes on DraftKings.
Burnes is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. He took home the NL Cy Young award last year for his dominant performance, pitching to a 2.43 ERA, 1.63 FIP, and 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s off to another strong start in 2022, pitching to a 2.25 ERA over his first two starts.
Burnes also benefits from an outstanding matchup vs. the Pirates. They are expected to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, and they’ve posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers to start the year. Overall, their projected lineup has a paltry .138 wOBA and 31.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. It simply doesn’t get much better than that from a matchup perspective.
Unsurprisingly, Burnes has elite Vegas data in this spot. He’s a massive -275 favorite, and the Pirates are currently implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.61 (per the Trends tool). Burnes has fit this trend on six previous occasions, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.15. Burnes is ultimately going to be tough to avoid, even at massive ownership.
Musgrove is a bit of a dicier proposition, but he has plenty working in his favor as well. For starters, he’s been excellent through his first two starts this year, racking up a 1.42 ERA and a 1.91 FIP over 12 2/3 innings. He’s tallied at least 22.5 DraftKings points in both outings, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.81.
Musgrove also draws an excellent matchup vs. the Reds. His 3.2 opponent implied team total trails only Burnes’, as do his -195 moneyline odds. The Reds have also whiffed at the third-highest frequency against right-handed pitchers this season, and they rank dead-last in wRC+.
Pairing Burnes and Musgrove together on DraftKings makes a ton of sense for cash games, but that duo should be very chalky in tournaments. Both players stand out as excellent plays, but if you use that combination, be very cognizant of ownership with your stacks. You’ll definitely want a few hitters with sub-5% projected ownership to balance things out.
Alternative Pitching Options
