Baseball is officially back, and it’s one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s nine-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Yu Darvish ($10,100 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel)
- Andrew Heaney ($8,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel)
Tuesday’s slate is probably the grossest of the early season from a pitching perspective. Most teams are relying on their fifth starter, which leaves an uninspiring group for DFS players to choose from.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Darvish and Heaney are expected to garner a majority of the ownership. Both players are projected for approximately 40% on DraftKings, and Heaney is the clear chalk on FanDuel.
However, I don’t feel particularly comfortable with either player. The best thing Darvish has going for him at the moment is his length. He was one of the few pitchers who lasted six full innings in his first start of the year, and he’ll be making his second turn through the rotation on Tuesday. No one on the slate is projected for more pitches in our MLB Models.
He also benefits from pitching in one of the best venues in baseball. Oracle Park in San Francisco is cavernous, giving Darvish a slate-best Park Factor of 95.
While he’s clearly the safest pitching option on the slate, I’m not sure his upside justifies his projected ownership. The Giants ranked fourth in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers last year, and they ranked third in isolated power. Even in a pitcher’s park, they averaged 4.62 runs per game when playing at home last year.
Darvish also wasn’t as dominant last year as he’s been in the past. He pitched to just a 4.22 ERA and 3.90 FIP, and those marks don’t necessarily justify a $10,100 price tag. Darvish did pitch six scoreless innings in his first outing this season, but he had six walks and didn’t allow a single hit on a ball put in play. That makes him a regression candidate vs. the Giants, and I’m comfortable being underweight on him.
Heaney is the tougher fade for me, particularly on FanDuel. That $7,500 price tag is extremely appealing, and it results in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Still, there are some red flags here. Heaney is a quality strikeout pitcher, but he allows a ton of hard contact when the ball is put in play. He allowed more than two homers per nine innings last year, which is a big reason why he stumbled to a 5.83 ERA.
The Twins offense also has the potential to be vastly improved this year. They were expected to be one of the better offenses in baseball last year but couldn’t get any traction. It’s obviously early in the year, but so far, they’ve posted a 157 wRC+ with a strikeout rate of just 17.3% against left-handed pitchers. Those are outstanding numbers.
The Twins are also currently implied for 4.5 runs, which is really high for a chalk pitcher. On DraftKings, pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.33 (per the Trends tool).
While I’ll have some exposure to Heaney on FanDuel, he’s very easy to avoid on DraftKings.
Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for the Dodgers-Twins game tonight.
Alternative Pitching Options
