Baseball is one of my favorite sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Friday’s 14-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Aaron Nola ($10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel)
- Jeffrey Springs ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Friday’s DFS slate is loaded with strong pitching options, with eight starters priced at $9,000 or higher on DraftKings.
However, Nola stands out as the most popular option in the stud tier by a wide margin. Nola has pitched well in 2022, racking up a 3.11 ERA through his first 14 starts, and he has the potential to improve moving forward. His 2.73 xERA is slightly lower than his actual mark, and he has excelled from both a strikeout and a Statcast perspective. He ranks in the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate, which is an excellent combination for a starting pitcher.
Nola draws a solid matchup Friday vs. the Padres. Their offense has been below average against right-handers this season, ranking 18th in wRC+, and they will likely be without Manny Machado once again. He’s been out of the lineup all week with an ankle injury, and he’s been easily the Padres’ best hitter this season.
Nola should also benefit from this matchup being played in San Diego. Petco Park isn’t quite as pitcher-friendly as it’s been in the past, but it still represents a significant upgrade over Citizens Bank Park. Nola has pitched to a 4.10 ERA at home this season, but that figure drops to 2.25 when on the road.
Overall, the Padres’ implied team total of 3.4 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate, and the Phillies are listed as slight -124 road favorites.
Springs isn’t quite in the top tier of the pricing spectrum, but he figures to be the most popular pitcher on the slate. For starters, Springs has been really good this season. He started the year in the Rays’ bullpen, but he has successfully transitioned into a starter. He’s started in each of his past eight appearances, and he’s posted a 2.41 ERA and a 9.22 K/9 over that sample. Those numbers would be even better if not for a subpar outing in his last start where he allowed four earned runs over 4.1 innings.
Overall, that was his only start with a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Springs gets one of the best possible matchups Friday vs. the Pirates. Their offense looks a bit better now than it did at the start of the season, with youngsters Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz giving the team some extra pop. However, both of them are left-handed hitters, so the left-handed Springs will have the splits advantage. For the year, the Pirates rank just 28th in wRC+ and third in strikeout rate against southpaws.
Pittsburgh is currently implied for just 2.9 runs, which is easily the lowest mark on the slate. Springs is also a sizable -200 favorite, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.40 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The only real concern with Springs is his upside. He has yet to pitch more than six innings this season, and he’s not exactly a strikeout maven. He’s yet to record more than seven strikeouts in a start, so he seems unlikely for a massive performance even in a great spot. That makes him a better option for cash games than GPPs. He’s someone that I’ll be considerably underweight on tonight.
MLB DFS Alternative Pitchers
