Baseball is one of my favorite sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 12-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Carlos Rodon ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel)
- Robbie Ray ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
- Frankie Montas ($8,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel)
Friday’s pitching slate is very top-heavy. There aren’t many appealing pitching options priced below $8,000 on DraftKings, so expect most people to pay up at the position. Rodon, Ray, and Montas are all expected to garner at least 30% ownership on this slate.
Rodon is coming off arguably his most impressive start of the year in his last outing. He limited the potent Dodgers offense to just two hits over six scoreless innings, and he added eight strikeouts. Rodon’s ERA currently sits at 3.18, but his advanced metrics are downright elite. He’s striking out 11.49 batters per nine innings, and he ranks in the 80th percentile or better in most expected statistics.
He should be able to have a field day Friday vs. the Pirates. They rank 28th in wRC+ against southpaws this season, and they own the third-highest strikeout rate. Their implied team total of 3.4 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, and Rodon’s K Prediction ranks second as well. Ultimately, he has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Ray has the highest ownership projection of the trio, and he should be extremely popular on FanDuel. His $9,200 salary makes him a significantly better value than Rodon and Montas, who are both priced much more accurately on that site.
Ray’s Vegas data isn’t quite as impressive as Rodon’s – 3.6 opponent implied team total, -128 moneyline odds – but he makes up for it with his strikeout upside. Ray hasn’t been quite as prolific in that department as he has been in years past, but he’s still striking out a respectable 9.39 batters per nine innings. He’s also had at least eight strikeouts in five of 13 starts.
He draws a matchup vs. the Angels on Friday, and he’s catching them at the perfect time. They’ve been anemic offensively against southpaws over the past 14 days, posting a 43 wRC+ and a 29.5% strikeout rate. Both of those are the worst marks in baseball over that time frame.
Montas is arguably the only good baseball player still in Oakland following their offseason purge. He should be a prime target on DraftKings, where he’s priced as just the ninth-most expensive pitcher. He’s the third-most-expensive option on FanDuel, which is quite a disparity.
There’s currently no Vegas data available for this matchup, but the A’s will likely be favored against the Royals. That’s a testament to Montas – he owns a 3.11 xERA this season – but it’s also a testament to the Royals’ dreadful offense. They rank just 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and they own the fourth-worst ISO in that split. Putting the Royals in a cavernous A’s ballpark should result in minimal scoring opportunities.
However, the Royals do put the ball in play. They have the 10th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and Montas isn’t exactly a strikeout maven. His 26.1 strikeout percentage puts him in the 73rd percentile for MLB pitchers.
Ultimately, Montas is the easiest fade of the group in tournaments. He doesn’t possess the same elite ceiling as Rodon and Ray, so he’s a lot tougher to justify as chalk. He’s a viable cash option at his reduced price tag on DraftKings, but there are plenty of scenarios where he does not finish as a top-scoring pitcher.
Alternative DFS Pitchers
