The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings main slates will begin at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. BOS
- Chris Paddack (R) $10,600, SD @ TOR
- Trevor Bauer (R) $10,100, CLE vs. TB
Verlander has been dominant this season, averaging a +5.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating to go along with his 3.45 xFIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. At the time of writing, Verlander and the Astros are -176 favorites while the Red Sox are implied for 3.5 runs, which is pretty solid considering the strength of their opponent.
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Verlander
Verlander carries a favorable 7.9 K Prediction, but he’ll be tested against this projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 22.1% strikeout rate and high .348 wOBA, including the 10th-ranked offense in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Given the high price and difficult matchup, paying down at pitcher may be the ideal roster construction to get to some of the elite bats.
Paddack has an intriguing matchup against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 29.9% strikeout rate and .270 wOBA. However, he’s not the best value with his -3.19 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments with his 28.7% strikeout rate against a team with a high strikeout rate and one that has struggled to generate runs against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in wRC+.
Bauer has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs while striking out five or fewer hitters in each start. He owns a solid 8.4 K Prediction, but given the dynamics of the slate, I’d prefer to pay down from this tier, unless you’re looking to be contrarian in tournaments.
While Bauer projects well in our Models, he carries some risk against an offense that owns a top-seven offense in team ISO and wRC+ against righties this season.
Values
Zack Wheeler is more of a value on DraftKings with his 88% Bargain Rating, but he’s my also preferred cash-game option on FanDuel, where he has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus. Wheeler leads the slate with an 8.7 K Prediction against a projected Tigers lineup that has a massive 32.1% strikeout rate and .260 wOBA, along with ranking 29th in wRC+.
Overall, the Tigers are implied for just 3.4 runs while the Mets are sizeable -180 favorites.
Jake Odorizzi is also a better value on DraftKings with his 77% Bargain Rating, but he’s still in play on FanDuel as a mid-range play. The projected White Sox lineup has a 34% strikeout rate with a mediocre .270 wOBA. His 7.9 K Prediction is one of the higher marks on the slate and the Twins are massive -236 favorites.
Rostering Wheeler and Odorizzi together on DraftKings could allow for some nice flexibility with your hitters.
Fastballs
Brandon Woodruff: He has a 100% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a 7.3 K Prediction against a projected Phillies lineup with a 26.8% strikeout rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Bargain Ratings have averaged +2.21 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Woodruff has been incredibly consistent this season, averaging a +4.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 5. Daniel Murphy (L)
Total salary: $19,900
The Rockies are set to square off against Baltimore righty David Hess. He boasts an absurd 2.47 HR/9 over the past 12 months, and he has substantial fly-ball tendencies, sporting a 49% fly-ball rate over the same time frame. Additionally, he’ll enter this game allowing a massive 280-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 63% fly-ball rate. Those metrics won’t translate well in a hitters park like Coors Field.
Per our Trends tool, hitters who’ve faced pitchers with comparable Statcast data, have averaged an excellent +1.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus since 2015. Overall, the Rockies’ 7.7 implied run total leads the slate by a significant margin. The closest team is the Twins, who are implied for 6.5 runs. It’s safe to say Colorado’s hitters are in a smash spot against Hess.
One of the top FanDuel stacks on the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Ryan Braun (R)
- 6. Eric Thames (L)
Total salary: $13,800
With Coors Field left off of FanDuel’s main slate, the Brewers possess the top stack on FanDuel. Overall, their 5.1 implied run total is the third-highest total. They’ll take on Zach Eflin, who has a pedestrian 13.3% K-BB%, and even though he currently has a 2.72 ERA, his 4.72 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky thus far.
Yelich is in an exceptional spot, as he’s throttled right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .464 wOBA and .354 ISO. Furthermore, Yelich is sporting a 95-mph exit velocity and 41% fly-ball rate over the past two weeks. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data who are hitting in similar lineup spots to Yelich have averaged a +1.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
The Twins have been red hot this year and at the time of writing, they have a robust 6.5 implied team total against Dylan Covey. Covey has been abysmal this season, pitching to a 7.39 xFIP and -9.7% K-BB%. (Yes, you read that correctly: He has a 7.5% strikeout rate and a 17.2% walk rate.)
Meanwhile, Max Kepler boasts a .340 wOBA and .227 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he only has a 14.7% strikeout rate against them over the same time frame. Let’s not forget about his excellent form, sporting a 243-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.
Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Twins designated hitter Max Kepler (26).
Aledmys Diaz is an intriguing salary relief option yet again. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Astros, and he’s hit lefties well over the past year, evidenced by his .349 wOBA and .243 ISO. He’s a solid value on FanDuel with his 70% Bargain Rating.
One of the top hitters in the Bales Model is Max Muncy. He’ll square off with Chris Archer, who has struggled this season with his 5.08 xFIP and 12.1% K-BB%. Muncy has smashed righties over the past 12 months, possessing a .411 wOBA and .297 ISO against them. He’s also in good form, boasting a 238-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. Those numbers could pair well against Archer’s 235-foot average distance and 46% hard-hit rate allowed.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Trevor Story
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
