The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer a 10-game all-day slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET, along with five-game main slates beginning at 6:35 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there is one pitcher who costs more than $10,000:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,200, CLE vs. CWS
Carrasco hasn’t been as bad as his 5.60 ERA shows since his 3.31 xFIP is around 2.3 runs lower. He also possesses an excellent 33.1% strikeout rate and 28.5% K-BB% rate this year. Carrasco is in a favorable spot Thursday afternoon as he’s set to take on a projected White Sox lineup that has a 26.6% strikeout rate and .299 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months.
Additionally, Carrasco and the Indians lead the slate in K Prediction (8.2), opponent implied run total (3.6), and they’re hefty -219 moneyline favorites. If you’re looking to pay up on the all-day or early slate, Carrasco is the play.
Values
The value options are incredibly underwhelming on both the early and main slate, which likely makes paying up the best form of even roster construction.
Michael Wacha could be a viable SP2 candidate on DraftKings with his 87% Bargain Rating. He doesn’t have much upside with his 5.2 K Prediction, but the Cardinals are sitting at -141 on the moneyline and the Pirates are implied for a meager 3.9 runs. Wacha has also done a solid job at limiting contact over his past two starts, allowing hitters to average a 197-foot average distance and 26% hard-hit rate.
Rich Hill has an 87% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s only had two starts since coming off the injured list. There is some risk in rostering Hill since you never know how long he’ll stay in to pitch and the Nationals rank second in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season. That said, the Nationals are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs while the Dodgers check in at -150 on the moneyline.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: I’ve pretty much avoided him all season, but he’s hard not to consider on the early slate that has limited options when he’s against a projected Marlins lineup with a 26.9% strikeout rate and .276 wOBA against righties.
Patrick Corbin: He and the Nationals are +138 underdogs, but he’s an intriguing play with his 8.8 K Prediction. But, rostering him won’t come without risks as the Dodgers own a middling 24.7% strikeout rate and rank ninth in wRC+ against lefties this season.
Pictured: Patrick Corbin (46), Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports
J.A. Happ: Speaking of question marks… Happ has been awful this season, pitching to a 5.04 xFIP, but the Mariners projected lineup has a slate-high 27.7% strikeout rate and mediocre .296 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Mariners do rank fourth in wRC+ against lefties this season, but Happ could scratch and claw to hit value with his 6.8 K Prediction. And if he’s lucky enough to get his second win (-165 moneyline) of the season, that certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians.
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Jason Kipnis (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (L)
- 4. Carlos Santana (S)
Total salary: $17,200
At the time of writing, the Indians’ 5.1 implied run total trails only the Rockies’ 5.9 implied run total at Coors Field. They’ll take on the lefty Manny Banuelos, who had a rough start in his last outing for the White Sox, surrendering nine earned runs and 10 hits against the Red Sox in 2.2 innings.
The matchup against the lefty is good news for the switch-hitting Lindor, who will be on the positive side of his batting splits. Over the past year, Lindor has hit lefties to the tune of an elite .405 wOBA and .232 ISO. Santana will also be on the positive side of his splits, posting a .396 wOBA and .218 ISO. Additionally, he’s generated a good amount of hard contact over the past two weeks, owning a 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate.
One of the top stacks in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel’s main slate belongs to the New York Yankees.
- 1. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Luke Voit (R)
- 4. Miguel Andujar (R)
- 5. Gleyber Torres (R)
Total salary: $14,100
The Yankees’ 5.1 implied run total is among the highest on the main slate as they’re set to square off against the struggling Mike Leake. He’s pitched to a 4.68 xFIP this season, and over his past two starts, he’s allowed opposing hitters to average a massive 96-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
His poor Statcast data could bode well for this stack considering they all have exit velocities over 93-mph, and three of the four hitters carry hard-hit rates of 43% or higher. If you have the extra salary, you could sub in Gary Sanchez, who is sporting a robust 245-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Jurickson Profar could be a source of salary relief if you’re looking to pay up for some Coors Field hitters. He has a decent amount of power against righties, posting a .214 ISO against them over the past 12 months, and he’s in good form, evidenced by his 227-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. All of which exceed his 15-day/12-month averages.
Alex Bregman is the top-priced third baseman on FanDuel and second-most expensive third baseman on DraftKings. But, he could be worth it in this spot. He smashes lefties, hitting them to the tune of a .415 wOBA and .274 ISO over the past year. Moreover, he’s absolutely throttling the baseball right now, owning a robust 264-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate.
Paul Goldschmidt has been in a bit of a slump of late, averaging a -4.96 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. However, Thursday’s spot is intriguing with his .392 wOBA and .252 ISO against righties over the past year. He also has a +35 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) so positive regression could be headed his way. He’s still been drawing excellent contact over the past 15 days, evidenced by his 229-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
