The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
There is a full night of baseball on tap Friday night with DraftKings and FanDuel bother offering 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,300, HOU vs. TEX
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,700, TB vs. NYY
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,500, CIN @ SF
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,300, ARI vs. ATL
Verlander has had an OK start to the season from a fantasy perspective, hitting value in just three of his eight starts. His 3.53 xFIP is underwhelming for a pitcher of his caliber, but he does carry an exceptional 30.3% strikeout rate, which typically gives him a high floor in any given game.
He’s a strong option on this slate, but I don’t think I’d consider him a lock by any means. While Verlander boasts an 8.4 K Prediction, the matchup doesn’t stand out with the projected Rangers lineup possessing a middling 24.6% strikeout rate and .324 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against righties over the past year. And this season, they rank 10th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) while carrying the fifth-ranked offense in team ISO against right-handed pitchers.
There’s a cheaper pitcher I like more on FanDuel, which we’ll get to later (it rhymes with Mack Peeler). That said, with the Rangers having an implied run total and the Astros checking in at -253 on the moneyline, Verlander is certainly viable on both sites or as one of your two starters on DraftKings if you’re looking to pay up there.
Glasnow has been excellent this year, possessing a 2.95 xFIP with a 28.8% strikeout rate while averaging a +8.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 71% Consistency Rating. But I don’t think I’d consider him in cash games with the other options available on this slate. The projected Yankees lineup has a low 22.5% strikeout rate and a high .342 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Overall, Glasnow isn’t much of a value at his salary with his -1.76 Projected Plus/Minus in our Models.
Castillo is an intriguing tournament option. He has a 30.3% strikeout rate this year, but the 9.7% walk rate is a slight concern. He fanned nine Giants in his last start against them on May 5, which marks the seventh time in eight starts that he’s struck out at least seven hitters. The Giants don’t have much firepower on offense, sporting a .291 wOBA and ranking 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Greinke is too expensive to consider on a fruitful pitching slate like this. The projected Braves lineup carries a low 20.8% strikeout rate against righties, which is why he’s sporting an abysmal 5.3 K Prediction — not exactly what you’re looking for in a $10,000-plus pitcher.
Values
Zack Wheeler has a 74% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, whose median projection trails only Verlander. You get a decent savings on Wheeler, in a better matchup against the Marlins. Their projected lineup has a middling 24.3% strikeout rate, but they have a mediocre .289 wOBA and rank dead last in wRC+ against righties. Moreover, the Marlins’ 3.0 implied run total is the lowest mark on the slate.
My cash-game rosters will come down to Wheeler and/or Verlander.
Fastballs
Domingo German: He’s an interesting tournament option as the Yankees are +134 underdogs. The Rays rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, but their projected lineup does have a massive 33.5% strikeout rate against them over the past 12 months.
Jake Odorizzi: It’s slightly worrisome that his xFIP is almost two runs higher than his ERA, but he’s in a good spot against a projected Tigers lineup that has a 28% strikeout rate and .292 wOBA, along with ranking 25th in wRC+.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Mark Reynolds (R)
- 6. Ian Desmond (R)
Total salary: $19,800
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado
The Rockies could go lower owned than they do on a typical night since their 5.5 implied run total trails the Angels (6.4) and the Red Sox (5.9). They’ll be up against the lefty Eric Lauer, who has surrendered an abundance of hard contact over his past two starts with his 247-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity, along with a 48% fly-ball rate. Those metrics do not mesh well with Coors Field.
The matchup against the lefty will put Story on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s destroyed lefties over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .435 wOBA and .311 ISO. Story is also in good form, posting a 243-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% fly-ball rate.
Over the past 12 months, Arenado has demolished lefties, sporting a robust .501 wOBA and .406 ISO. Not to mention his absurd 97-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.
The top non-Coors stacks in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Tommy La Stella (R)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (R)
- 6. Brian Goodwin (R)
Total salary: $14,400
The Angels’ 6.4 implied run total leads the entire slate Friday. They’ll square off against Dan Straily, who has been throttled this year, owning a 7.20 xFIP and abysmal 9.8% strikeout rate.
Trout has smoked right-handed pitchers over the past year, possessing a .474 wOBA and .316 ISO against them. Straily’s 48% fly-ball rate over his past two starts could pair well with Trout’s 40% fly-ball rate over the past two weeks. Ohtani will be playing in just his fourth game this season, but over the past 12 months, he owns a .412 wOBA and .333 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Other Batters
The Red Sox also deserve some mention with their 5.9 implied run total. Consequently, their high total has given them a top-four Team Value Rating in our Vegas Dashboard. Mookie Betts has been on fire over his past 10 games, averaging a +3.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating. The righty-righty matchup puts him on the positive side of his splits, as he owns a robust .428 wOBA and .258 ISO against them over the past year.
To get to some of these expensive bats, we’ll need to roster a few cheap ones. One of them could be Freddy Galvis, who is expected to hit from the No. 2 spot for the Blue Jays against Dylan Covey. Galvis’ metrics don’t stand out, but he has a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He could be cheap exposure to the Jays’ respectable 4.9 implied run total.
It didn’t work out yesterday, but I’m fine punting second base and going back to the Jurikson Profar well. He carries a top-six median projection and top-two Projected Plus/Minus in our models, along with a .218 ISO. Profar could also be due for some progression with his +47 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). He owns great Statcast data over the past two weeks with his 236-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate.
If you want to pay down even further at second base, you could consider Jason Kipnis with his .350 wOBA and .195 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Granted, it’s not the best spot as the Indians are implied for a paltry 3.8 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Zack Wheeler
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
