The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
We have a full night of baseball on our hands tonight with DraftKings and FanDuel offering 14-game main slates starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Blake Snell (L) $11,200, TB @ CLE
- Chris Sale (L) $10,800, BOS @ HOU
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,600, NYM vs. DET
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,100, LAD @ PIT
Snell checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the main slate. He’s been excellent this season, pitching to a 2.37 xFIP with a massive 37.8% strikeout rate. While the Indians rank 25th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season, their projected lineup only has a 22.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
However, Snell’s stellar strikeout numbers still give him a K Prediction of 9.0, the second-highest mark on the day. At the time of writing, he presently leads all pitchers with his median projection. Snell is a strong option against a team with a 3.5 implied run total while the Rays check in at -135 moneyline, but there are other routes to go tonight if you don’t want to pay up.
Sale still managed to strike out 10 Astros in 5.1 innings against them in his last start despite them being great against lefties. I still wouldn’t use Sale in cash games considering the projected Astros lineup owns a 20.5% strikeout rate and .351 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, including ranking first in wRC+ against them this season.
Sale will head into this game with worrisome Statcast data as he’s allowing a 269-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate against over his past two starts. I’d still view Sale as an elite tournament play.
Syndergaard would be my preferred option for cash games when factoring his matchup, along with the slight discount compared to Snell. He’s been slightly disappointing this season, pitching to a 3.72 xFIP, however, his xFIP and an 18.9% K-BB% are above average among 2019 starting pitchers.
It’s a sublime matchup against a projected Tigers lineup that possesses a 27.1% strikeout rate and .261 wOBA against righties over the past year. Not to mention they rank 29th in wRC+ against them this season. Overall, the Mets are the biggest favorite on the night (-283 moneyline) and the Tigers have the lowest opponent implied run total (2.8) 0.6 runs.
Buehler is the last pitcher that checks in above $10,000. However, he carries a weak 4.9 K Prediction against a projected Pirates lineup with an incredibly low 19.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. I’m not really high on him in any format.
Values
Drew Pomeranz and the Giants are slight +115 underdogs against the Diamondbacks, but he’s an intriguing as a tournament punt option on FanDuel or an SP2 option on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he has a 93% Bargain Rating with his $5,900 price tag. There’s some risk with Pomeranz with his 1.70 WHIP, 4.69 xFIP and 10.7% K-BB%, but the matchup is enticing as the projected Diamondbacks lineup has a 26.7% strikeout rate and .289 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Additionally, they’re implied for just 3.7 runs, which is the fourth-lowest total on the slate.
Griffin Canning has been fairly solid this season in his four starts, sporting a 4.13 xFIP and excellent 27.6% strikeout rate. He’s failed to hit value just once those four starts. The Rangers have been pretty good against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking in the top four in both team ISO and wRC+, but their projected lineup also has a 26.9% strikeout rate. He’s not quite the value on DraftKings with his 13% Bargain Rating, but he’s a viable SP2 guy.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios: He has a solid matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has a 26% strikeout rate and subpar .296 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Berrios has a solid K Prediction, and he’s entering this game in good form with a 194-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity and 25% hard-hit rate.
Robbie Ray: He has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, making him more intriguing on that particular site. The projected Giants lineup has a middling 25.6% strikeout rate, but an absurdly low .223 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Overall, his 7.6 K Prediction is the third-highest mark on Friday.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Chad Pinder (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
Total salary: $16,300
Friday night could shape up to be a high-scoring slate with seven teams having implied run totals of at least 5.0. The A’s are one of those five teams, possessing a 5.0 implied run total and Team Value Rating of 72 in our Vegas Dashboard.
They’ll take on Wade LeBlanc, who got throttled in his last start, allowing seven earned runs against the Twins. His poor performance resulted in him having some terrible Statcast data, allowing a 296-foot average distance, 99-mph exit velocity and 66% hard-hit rate.
It should be noted that Davis is questionable with a hip injury, so be sure to pay attention to official lineups as they’re released. If he does play, it’s an elite spot for him considering he owns a .389 wOBA and .338 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months.
Chapman will be on the negative side of his batting splits, but he still possesses a .364 wOBA and .221 ISO against left-handed pitchers. His recent hard-hit rate also exceeds his 12-month average by five percentage points. With the exception of Pinder, everyone in this stack as a Bargain Rating of 87% or higher.
One of the top FanDuel stacks on the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
- 1. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 2. Steve Wilkerson (S)
- 3. Trey Mancini (R)
- 5. Rio Ruiz (L)
Total salary: $14,400
The Orioles will head to Coors Field to take on the right-handed Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has just one start this season in which he allowed four earned runs to the Nationals through five innings.
The matchup against righty will put Wilkerson on the positive side of his splits, possessing an elite .428 wOBA and .296 ISO against them over the past year. He’s also in terrific batted-ball form, averaging a 233-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. All of which exceed his 12-month averages.
It’s also worth noting that at the time of writing, the sharp money is coming in on the Orioles since they’re receiving 32% of the bets, but 66% of the money. Overall, their moneyline odds have moved from +152 to +142 since the lines opened.
Other Batters
The top hitter in the Bales Model belongs to Matt Carpenter. He’s a better value on DraftKings where he possesses a 94% Bargain Rating. He’s in a great spot as the Cardinals are implied for 5.6 runs and the matchup against the righty is good news for Carpenter and his .386 wOBA and .266 ISO. Carpenter has generated an abundance of hard contact over the past two weeks, owning a 97-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate. It also doesn’t hurt that Michael Foltynewicz a .372 wOBA and .381 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
If you have the salary, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are at Coors Field where the Rockies have a slate-high 6.6 implied run total. Arendado has smoked lefties, hitting them to the tune of a .482 wOBA and .411 ISO, and Story possesses a .406 wOBA and .275 ISO and has been smashing the baseball with his 232-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
Albert Pujols could a salary-saving option to get to some of the Coors Field bats. The Angels are implied for 5.1 runs and Pujols has an excellent matchup against Drew Smyly. Pujols has a .258 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months, and he’s in good form with his 227-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Noah Syndergaard
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
