Friday features Game 5 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees starting at 7:08 p.m. ET.
The single-game format will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — last year they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers — but they still have the potential to provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Game 5 features a rematch from Game 2, with Justin Verlander taking on James Paxton. Verlander clearly out-pitched Paxton in their first meeting, and the Astros ultimately pulled out the win in extra innings. He logged seven strikeouts over 6.2 innings while allowing just two earned runs.
Verlander has dominated for most of the season. He pitched to a 2.58 ERA and 3.27 FIP while striking out 12.11 batters per 9 innings. Not bad for a 36-year-old who was largely believed to be washed up when the Astros acquired him in 2017. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he was a bit lucky this season, but it was still an excellent year.
He has the clear edge in Vegas data in today’s contest despite pitching on the road. He owns -139 moneyline odds and a 3.5 opponent implied team total, and stud caliber pitchers have historically averaged 21.63 DraftKings points with comparable marks in both categories (per the Trends tool).
Pitching on the road also shouldn’t be an issue. He actually owned slightly better marks in FIP and K/9 when pitching away from Minute Maid Park this season, and he limited opposing batters to a .235 wOBA.
Facing the Yankees obviously won’t be easy, but Verlander deserves to be treated as an elite DFS option.
Paxton is a different story. He lasted just 2.1 innings in Game 2, despite the fact that he allowed just one earned run. There was a bunch of traffic on the bases — he allowed four hits and two walks — but manager Aaron Boone decided he’d rather go to his bullpen than let his starter try to pitch through it. It’s hard to imagine that Boone won’t have a similar quick hook with Paxton today, which makes him a risky option.
That said, he still has some upside. He’s priced at just $8,600 on DraftKings, which is extremely cheap for a starter in the showdown format. To put that in perspective, Brad Peacock, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Colin McHugh are all more expensive despite pitching out of the bullpen. If Paxton pitches well, he has the potential to be the best pure value on the slate.
Unfortunately, pitching well against the Astros’ is borderline impossible. Their lineup is loaded from top to bottom, and they ranked first in wRC+ vs. southpaws during the regular season. They also posted the lowest strikeout rate vs. left-handers, which is a brutal combination. Paxton’s current strikeout prop is listed at just 4.5, which is significantly lower than Verlander’s prop of 7.5.
Overall, there is going to be value in targeting the Yankees’ pitching staff today, you just have to decide if that will come from Paxton or the bullpen.
If you are fading Paxton, you’ll want to load up on at least one reliever from the Yankees. No one in their pen pitched more than one inning yesterday, so they should be ready to go in an elimination game.
Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle are the most likely options to pitch multiple innings. Green went 2.0 innings in Game 2 of this series, while Kahnle pitched 2.1. Both pitchers also offer significant strikeout upside: Green struck out 98 batters over 69.0 innings during the regular season, and Kahnle struck out 88 batters over 61.1 innings.
Zack Britton is another minimum-priced option on DraftKings, and he pitched in each of the first three games during this series. That said, his odds of getting multiple innings are much slimmer.
Finally, Aroldis Chapman is a huge threat at the end of the game. He hasn’t pitched since Game 1, so he should be available at some point during this contest. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Boone turn to him in a close game even if his team doesn’t have a lead. Chapman is one of the biggest strikeout threats in baseball, so he’s always in play in the Showdown format.
The Astros’ bullpen isn’t nearly as valuable. Josh James, Joe Smith, and Will Harris have all pitched between 2.1 and 2.2 innings in this series, but none seems likely to throw enough pitches to be viable fantasy options.
The only option worth considering is Roberto Osuna, who has pitched 4.0 scoreless innings vs. the Yankees during the postseason. He’s managed just two strikeouts over that time frame, but the length is more important than the strikeouts. There’s definitely a scenario where A.J. Hinch hands the ball directly from Verlander to Osuna if his starter can give him seven innings.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Altuve (R)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 6. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 7. Carlos Correa (R)
- 8. Robinson Chirinos (R)
- 9. Jake Marisnick (R)
This Astros lineup is an absolute juggernaut. Correa has delivered some huge hits for this team during the postseason, and he can’t even crack the top-six in the batting order. He could legitimately hit in the top three for most MLB teams. Marisnick will replace Josh Reddick at the bottom of the lineup, which makes sense considering the matchup vs. Paxton. He’ll have the splits advantage, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Reddick enter the game as a pinch-hitter if the Yankees have a right-hander on the mound.
Springer has had just two hits in this series, but both of them have left the yard. He’s typically at his best vs. right-handers, but he’s found some success vs. Paxton throughout his career. He’s tallied eight hits over 33 career at-bats, and three of those hits have been HRs. He leads all batters in ceiling projection in our MLB Models.
Altuve and Bregman both stand out as elite options in this matchup. They’ve both crushed left-handers this season, with Altuve posting a 176 wRC+ and Bregman posting a 205 wRC+. They may not get more than two at bats vs. Paxton, but both guys are capable of taking advantage.
Chirinos is super cheap at just $4,400 on DraftKings, and that undersells what this guy can do with his bat. He’s posted a .396 wOBA and .195 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, so he’s capable of doing some damage. He’s a great value option who could fly a bit under the radar.
Yankees Lineup
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 5. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 6. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 7. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 8. Giovanny Urshella (R)
- 9. Brett Gardner (L)
The Yankees’ bats have been quiet for most of this series, so Boone is making some changes to his lineup. For starters, Stanton is back in the lineup and batting cleanup, which is a huge addition. He was limited for most of the season, but he’s capable of changing a game with one swing of the bat. Torres moves up to the No. 3 spot in the order, which drops Hicks down to No. 5. Gardner is all the way down to the No. 9 spot in the lineup, which will slide Gregorius up to No. 7.
The Yankees lineup isn’t quite as dangerous as the Astros’, but it’s still one of the best in baseball. They ranked third in wRC+ and ISO vs. right-handers during the regular season. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them get to Verlander in this contest. If that happens, they’re going to provide massive value. Virtually every batter on the team has been priced down: Only LeMahieu and Torres are currently priced above $8,000 on DraftKings.
Hicks and Stanton are both particularly underpriced given their spots in the lineup. Both batters are above average vs. right-handers, but Hicks has actually displayed more power over the past 12 months. His .257 ISO vs. right-handers ranks third on the team.
Judge is also cheaper than usual at just $7,600, and he hit a two-run bomb off Verlander in Game 2. He’s elite vs. left-handed pitchers, but his 121 wRC+ vs. right-handers is still solid.
Sanchez went yard in Game 4 of this series, and he’s capable of hitting HRs in bunches. He owns the top ISO vs. right-handers over the past 12 months among the Yankees’ starters, so he’s capable of finding the seats again in this contest.
Finally, Gregorius is worth some consideration if you like batter vs. pitcher statistics. He has the best track record vs. Verlander, posting a .333 AVG and .444 OBP vs. Verlander over 18 career plate appearances. Two of those hits have gone for extra bases, so he has some power upside as well.
Pictured: Astros SP Justin Verlander (35)
Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
