It will be a battle of the bullpens in Saturday’s ALCS Game 6 between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros starts at 8:08 p.m. ET. The single-game format will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Both clubs have announced that it will be a “bullpen game” in Game 6. The Astros have decided to save Gerrit Cole for a potential Game 7, and the Yankees are doing the same with Luis Severino.
Chad Green is the most likely candidate to start for the Yankees. He’s been one of their most effective relievers this season and has been able to duplicate that production as a starter. Overall, he posted a 3.72 ERA when starting games while averaging a K/9 of 14.90. According to BetLabs, the Yankees went 11-4 with Green as a starter this season, good for a 73.3% win rate.
The one issue with Green as a starter is his increased HR rate. He allowed 1.86 HRs per nine innings, which was a big spike compared to his number out of the bullpen (1.09). That might just be a result of the small sample size, but it’s still a concern vs. the Astros. The top of their lineup can do some serious damage, and their lineup ranked first in wRC+ vs. right-handers overall.
Unfortunately, DraftKings has also aggressively priced Green up for today’s contest. He’s been listed at just $3,000 for the previous five games of this series, but he’s priced at $6,800 today. That likely makes him too expensive to target, since his ceiling should be capped around two innings.
The Astros are expected to turn to Jose Urquidy, who hasn’t pitched much during the postseason. He pitched 1.2 innings in relief vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, but that was his only appearance.
Urquidy logged 41.0 innings for the Astros at the MLB level this season, and most of that work came as a starter. He was solid over that time frame, posting a 3.95 ERA and 3.68 FIP, and he also posted a respectable 8.78 K/9.
He’s slightly more expensive than Green at $8,200, but has a significantly higher ceiling. He pitched at least four innings in six of his past seven starts, while Green hasn’t lasted more than two innings as a starter. There’s no guarantee that he’ll pitch that much on today’s slate — especially considering he hasn’t worked much during the postseason — but the potential is definitely there.
He has the slight edge in Vegas data on today’s slate. The Astros are currently listed a -135 favorites, giving them the superior mark in implied team total (4.9 runs vs. 4.2 runs). Those marks aren’t as important as they would be on a normal slate, but it’s still something to consider.
These kind of slates are my favorite to target because there is tons of value in the bullpens. Both teams have pitchers who are priced at the minimum that could definitely pitch multiple innings.
Lets start with the Yankees. Tommy Kahnle threw just eight pitches last night, so he should be available today. He’s threw more than one inning Game 2 of this series, when he logged 2.1 innings and scored 9.3 DraftKings points.
Zack Britton was dominant for the Yankees last night, pitching 1.2 innings with two strikeouts. He didn’t allow anyone to reach base either, which kept his pitch count pretty reasonable. It seems likely that we’ll see him at some point today.
Of course, Aroldis Chapman headlines the Yankees bullpen, and they could definitely turn to him for multiple innings if they have the lead. He’s made just two appearances in this series, and he’s struck out four of the seven batters that he’s faced.
Things aren’t as clear for the Astros. They could turn to Josh James after Urquidy, which would limit their appeal. James is priced like a starter, but he’s yet to pitch more than 1.0 inning during the postseason. He has big strikeout upside, but it’s hard to see him paying off his salary barring an increase in workload.
Ryan Pressly, Will Harris, and Joe Smith are more viable at the minimum, but they don’t have the same upside as some of the Yankees’ relievers.
The only member of the Astros’ bullpen I’m seriously considering is Roberto Osuna. He’s yet to allow a run during the ALCS, and he’s pitched 4.0 innings over three appearances. Not only is he the best pitcher in the Astros’ pen, he’s also the most likely to throw more than an inning. That’s an awesome combination.
Batters
Yankees Projected Lineup
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 5. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 6. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 7. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 8. Giovanny Urshella (R)
- 9. Brett Gardner (L)
The Yankees were able to sore four runs off Justin Verlander in the first inning of Game 5, but that was the only scoring they were able to do. It was enough to ultimately win the game, but their offense still isn’t exactly clicking.
Aaron Hicks will have the splits advantage regardless of who’s on the mound for the Astros. He went yard yesterday off Verlander, and he should continue to bat in the top five of the lineup. That makes him one of the best pure values on the slate at just $6,600. He’s been at his best vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which increases his appeal if he does square off with Urquidy.
Stanton and Sanchez have both struggled during the postseason, both players are among the cheapest options in the Yankees’ lineup and capable of providing plenty of value with one swing of the bat. Each has already homered in this series. Sanchez has posted the top ISO vs. right-handers over the past 12 months among the Yankees’ projected starters, while Stanton has owned left-handers throughout his career.
LeMahieu is the most expensive batter for the Yankees, which would’ve seemed impossible before the start of the season. That said, he has absolutely dominated this year and should garner some MVP consideration. He’s posted at least six points in each game this series and has averaged 10.2 DraftKings points per contest. It’s not hard to fit his salary in the lineup if you’re targeting some of the bullpen options.
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 8. Martin Maldonado (R)
- 9. Josh Reddick (L)
If Green does get the start for the Yankees, expect Reddick to return to the lineup. He typically starts vs. right-handed pitchers, which will send Jake Marisnick back to the bench. Maldonado is also expected to handle the catching duties instead of Robinson Chirinos.
The right-handed batters get a boost in this contest. Minute Maid Park has a very short porch in left field, and the Astros’ right-handed batters averaged a 138 wRC+ when playing at home this season. That was the top mark in baseball by a considerable margin.
Springer is one batter in particular that stands out. He’s a classic reverse splits hitter, meaning he’s a righty who actually performs better against right-handed pitching. Specifically, he hit for a lot more power vs. right-handers given his .322 ISO, and 31 of his 39 HRs came against right-handed pitchers. He owns the highest ceiling projection in our MLB Models.
Altuve is known to mash left-handed pitching, but he actually posted a higher wRC+ against right-handers than left-handers when playing at home this season. He’s another elite option.
If I’m fading any of the Astros’ “big three”, it’s going to be Bregman. He was less effective against right-handers than his superstar teammates, and it seems unlikely that he’ll get an at bat vs. a left-hander that isn’t Britton or Chapman in this contest.
Gurriel is one of the stronger value options on the Astros, and he’s another right-handed batter who has performed better against right-handed pitchers this season. He was particularly effective at home, posting a 168 wRC+.
