The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Gil ($10,300) New York Yankees (-191) at Los Angeles Angels
The Yankees have been without their nominal ace, Gerrit Cole, all season. But you wouldn’t know it, thanks to the emergence of Luis Gil. In his first full season, the 26-year-old Gil has a Cole-esque stat line: 2.11 ERA with a 31.7% strikeout rate.
While his underlying metrics suggest some slight regression is incoming, he’s been nearly as good as those stats suggest. Even if regression is due, it’s not likely to happen against the Angels, as they rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.
Los Angeles is one of six teams with a total between 3.6 and 3.8 runs on Wednesday’s evening slate, and Gil has the highest K Prediction of any of the pitchers facing those teams. That makes him the clear top play on the board Monday.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections and is a strong play for cash games and GPPs alike.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bryse Wilson ($6,000) Milwaukee Brewers (+114) vs. Chicago Cubs
Wilson is an interesting case today, as his traditional numbers as a starter are much better than his predictive indicators. The occasional reliever has six starts on the season, with a 2.20 ERA in those games. However, his xFIP is over 5.00, and his BABIP is an unsustainable .218.
Both of which raise some questions about his actual ability. On the other hand, his salary is low enough that even if he performed closer to his underlying numbers, he might still be a good play on Wednesday, especially considering the dearth of cheap options on the evening slate.
It’s not a bad matchup with the Cubs, either. They rank 22nd in wRC+ against righties and sixth in strikeout rate. Both should help keep regression at bay, at least for the time being.
Wilson is on the riskier side, but he leads the FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal. He’s an interesting cash game punt, while solidly in the GPP mix for lineups trying to spend up on hitters.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanaga ($10,600) Chicago Cubs (-135) at Milwaukee Brewers
Given his ridiculous stat line this season, I’m more than willing to play into ownership when rostering Imanaga. He has a 0.84 ERA through nine starts, with a 27.8% strikeout rate. As unsustainable as that ERA may be, his 2.62 xERA is also elite.
If anything, he’s also due for even more strikeouts. His 16% swinging strike rate is the second best in the majors among starters with at least 50 innings pitched, trailing only fellow rookie Jared Jones. For further context, Imanaga ranks just ahead of Chris Sale — whose strikeout rate is 4% higher.
Milwaukee is also an excellent matchup for lefties, ranking bottom ten in wRC+ and top ten in strikeout rate. And that ownership I mentioned earlier? Imanaga’s elevated salary has him well off the lead in both models.
Considering all of the above, he’s my favorite GPP play on the slate. A classic “pay up to be contrarian” option, he’s just $300 more expensive than Gil, with every bit of the upside and considerably lower ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
We’re going to continue to ride the Guardians stack throughout their series in Colorado. It’s mostly worked out, with 19 total runs through the first two games.
On Wednesday, they have another excellent team total of 6.2 — their highest so far in the series. Much of that is due to the pitching matchup with lefty Ty Blach ($5,000). Cleveland is a league-average offense against righties, but they crush southpaws — ranking third in the MLB with a 124 wRC+.
On top of that, Blach isn’t an especially good lefty. He has an ERA of 4.55, xERA a full run higher, and just a 10.5% strikeout rate in 2024. That’s a problem at Coors Field.
The Guardians are expensive, but they would obviously be well worth it if they performed like they did last night. That’s well within the realm of possibility, so it’s worth trying to scrape together the salary.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ezequial Tovar SS ($4,600) Colorado Rockies vs. Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
It’s a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight at Coors Field, which places both offenses on the strong side of their platoon splits. Colorado is implied for 5.1 runs tonight, well below their opponent, but still the second best mark on the board.
Using PlateIQ, I looked to see which Rockies have the best splits against lefties:
That would be Tovar. When factoring in the small sample size of the hitters with better numbers, as well as their position in the Rockies’ lineup, he’s the best play.
Sean Murphy C ($3,500) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
As is often the case, Murphy comes at a cheap price today as he works his way back from injury. He’s made just three appearances this season, with two hits in ten trips to the plate.
However, last year he was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, with an .844 OPS. He should return to something like that form this year, and he occupies a premium spot (number five) in Atlanta’s high-powered lineup.
He’s too cheap for his role in an offense implied for 4.9 runs tonight and is an excellent way to save some salary for Guardians stacks.
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