The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a ten-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) Los Angeles Dodgers (-276) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Glasnow is the clear leader in median and ceiling projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models on Wednesday. He’s also the slate’s most expensive pitcher. That means the discussion today isn’t really about whether Glasnow is a “good” play so much as whether or not he’s capable of paying off his salary.
He’s done just that so far this season, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per contest across ten starts. He has a sub-3.00 ERA and strikeout rate above 30%, both elite numbers. He’s also supported those numbers with his underlying metrics, and there’s a case to be made that he’s been even better than his traditional stats indicate.
However, it’s not the easiest matchup against a Diamondbacks team with a slightly above-average overall offense and somewhat low strikeout rate. It probably doesn’t matter for Glasnow given how good he’s been, but at his price point, we need to be picky.
The combination of salary and projected ownership will keep me off Glasnow in large-field GPPs, but he’s a near lock for cash games and smaller tournaments.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Mitch Spence ($4,000) Oakland A’s (-125) vs. Colorado Rockies
One of the factors enabling the high ownership on Glasnow is the presence of Spence. Spence opened the season as a long reliever but is now making his second start for the A’s as they deal with injuries to their pitching staff.
Spence was solid in his first start, pitching 4.2 innings of one run ball against the Royals. Now he gets a massive matchup upgrade against the Rockies, a bottom-five offense with a top-five strikeout rate against righties. Spence should also have a slightly longer leash in his second start now that he’s a bit more stretched out.
His stats this season don’t tell us much since they were primarily in relief appearances, but he has a sub-4.00 ERA and even better underlying numbers. If he can come anywhere close to that level of performance over five innings tonight, he’ll be a massive value at minimum salary.
He leads both systems Pts/Sal projections by a wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jared Jones ($9,600) Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pirates have a rookie pitcher taking the mound today with an upper 90s fastball, 30% strikeout rate, and 2.89 ERA — and it’s not Paul Skenes. While Skenes fits that bill as well, their less-heralded rookie Jared Jones is off to an excellent MLB start in his own right.
He’s averaging north of 20 DraftKings points per game on the strength of the above numbers, and he has excellent Vegas data tonight in his matchup against the Giants. San Francisco is implied for just 3.7 runs, and the Pirates are favored despite their own anemic offense.
With an 18.4% swinging strike rate, Jones has potential for even more punch outs than he’s currently recording. That gives him a shot to challenge for the best score on the slate, especially as Pittsburgh allows him to work deeper into games. He’s lasted at least six full innings in his last three appearances.
Even if he doesn’t quite match the score put up by Glasnow, the $1,000 in savings could go a long way to building a better lineup. He’s my favorite pivot for large-field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres 5.2-run implied total is just slightly off the lead for best on the slate. They’re in Cincinnati tonight at Great American Ball Park, the league’s best venue for home runs. They also have the best Weather Rating for hitters in our models, so it’s good news all around.
They’re matched up with Nick Martinez ($6,600) of the Reds, who has a 4.23 ERA and nearly identical xFIP on the season. He’s not a pitcher we’d go out of our way to stack against, but he’s not one to shy away from either.
Martinez is a righty, and the Padres are tied with the Dodgers for the second-best wRC+ as a team against right-handed pitching. Combined with the excellent conditions for hitters and the reasonable cost of this stack, they’re an elite option tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Danny Jansen C ($4,500) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox (Nick Nastrini)
While the Blue Jays have largely disappointed offensively this season, they’re one of my favorite teams to stack tonight. That’s because of the matchup with Nick Nastrini ($5,500). The White Sox are reluctantly recalling Nastrini from AAA, after he posted a 7.88 ERA in two starts this April.
Using PlateIQ, I looked to see if any Toronto hitters in particular stood out:
Jansen is a fairly obvious choice. He’s hitting .319 with a 1.043 OPS and should feast in this matchup.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($5,400) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
The Rangers’ Dane Dunning ($7,100) has been solid overall this season but vulnerable to left-handed power hitters. He’s allowed a .474 slugging percentage to lefties this season compared to just .342 against righties.
This makes Schwarber a massive problem for Texas tonight. He’s expected to bat lead off in a Phillies lineup projected for 5.4 runs. Schwarber is coming off back-to-back seasons of 45 homers and already has nine this year. Look for him to get number 10 tonight.
Jacob Hurtubise OF ($2,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres (Michael King)
The same conditions that have me interested in the Padres offense also apply to the Reds. I keep finding myself filling out lineups with Hurtubise, who is currently projected to lead off for Cincinnati tonight.
That alone makes him a massive value at minimum price, considering the Reds’ 4.7-run implied total. The rookie has just 13 MLB plate appearances — making his stats effectively meaningless — but he profiles as a speedy, high-contact hitter. I’ll take my chances considering his price point and what he unlocks elsewhere in lineups.
