The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Gil ($10,300) New York Yankees (-149) at New York Mets
There’s not really a true “stud” option on Wednesday’s abridged evening slate, but Gil leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling.
Which isn’t to say Gil doesn’t have “stud” numbers this season. His ERA is 2.77 with a 29.3% strikeout rate — both elite marks. However, he seems to have hit a bit of a rookie wall, allowing 11 earned runs over his last twelve innings. Those came against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Orioles — all tough matchups — which could explain his struggles. The matchup doesn’t get much better today, though, with the Mets a top-10 team against right-handed pitching.
The Mets have a four-run Vegas Total for this one, which isn’t bad but also not what we typically see from pitchers priced in the five figures. That doesn’t mean those runs come against Gil, but it’s still worth noting.
Gil does lead our models in K prediction by a fairly wide margin, so he’s a somewhat risky high-upside play tonight. My interest in him is dependent on his ownership, as he’s probably not worth it if he’s the chalk, but it is interesting if he comes in at a lower number.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryne Nelson ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins
There’s not much going Nelson’s way today except his price tag. He’s just $5,500, with his most notable selling point being his 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. With every other pitcher on the slate more expensive on DraftKings than on FanDuel, Nelson is a notable exception.
In Nelson’s defense, he hasn’t been quite as bad as his 5.18 ERA would indicate. His ERA predictors are all in the mid-fours, which certainly isn’t ideal but is tolerable at his price tag. He has a moderately tough matchup with the Twins (106 wRC+ against righties), but not one that we’re absolutely avoiding at all costs.
He’s also been in better form lately, allowing three runs across 13 innings in his last two starts. Those were against the Nationals and White Sox — so temper your expectations — but he’s had his moments over the last month or so.
Nelson leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal, making him a solid cash game play or GPP salary saver.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Gavin Stone ($8,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-182) at Chicago White Sox
I’m a little surprised at the current ownership projections on Stone, which have him at less than half of Gil’s likely ownership. That will change throughout the day, of course, but it’s still an interesting split.
Stone has by far the best matchup on the slate against the White Sox, the worst offense in the MLB against right-handed pitching. He also has the best Vegas data, with Chicago implied for a slate-low 3.7 runs.
The market isn’t just reacting to the matchup, either. Stone has been good this year, with a 3.04 ERA and 3.75 xERA through 14 starts. Some of his ERA indicators are a bit worse, but we aren’t really worried about regression in a matchup against the White Sox.
While he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, we probably won’t need a high score to take down GPPs, given the landscape of the slate. When considering his price tag and (current) ownership projection, Stone is the best tournament option on the board.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The interesting (annoying) thing about Wednesday’s smaller slate is that while we don’t have many low-total games, there are no obvious standout teams either. Just two teams have implied totals of at least five runs, those being the Red Sox and Dodgers.
Boston has the higher implied total by about a third of a run, while their top-five hitter stack comes in significantly cheaper than the Dodgers. That makes them the fairly obvious top stack on the slate, even without having projections that necessarily stand out relative to their salaries.
They do have an excellent matchup with Blue Jays’ rookie Yariel Rodriguez ($5,000), who has a 5.94 ERA through his first 16.2 innings in the majors. Boston should be able to do enough damage before he’s pulled to score well — at least relative to our other options on the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge ($6,400) New York Yankees at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The only left-handed starter on Wednesday’s slate is the Mets’ Sean Manaea ($7,200). While the Yankees hit lefties worse than righties overall, there is one notable exception. Check it out in PlateIQ:
With the exception of the 11-plate appearance sample size of Jahmal Jones ($2,500), Judge’s numbers stand out in a big way. He’s always a strong play, but with an OPS about 100 points higher against lefties, he’s more of a priority today.
This game also has the best conditions for hitters (assuming it plays) per the RotoGrinders Weather Edge tool.
Freddie Freeman 1B ($5,800) Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde)
The matchup against Erick Fedde ($7,500) is a tough one, so we aren’t getting our typical big projections on the Dodgers. They’re still implied for five runs, though — and not all of their at-bats will be against Fedde.
Obviously, there are plenty of viable hitters on Los Angeles, with Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) always an option. I prefer Freeman at his cost, though. He has a higher batting average against righties (though somewhat less power), and the $700 makes a big difference.
Of course, I’d love to be able to fit and afford both players, but that’s easier said than done.
Spencer Horwitz 1B/2B ($3,900) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
The Blue Jays are implied for a solid 4.4 runs tonight against Kutter Crawford ($8,200) and the Red Sox. After a storming start, Crawford has fallen apart lately, allowing at least five runs in four of his last six.
Toronto doesn’t make it easy to stack against him, thanks to the struggles of their hitters this year, but I’m taking a chance on Horwitz. He’s hitting .348 with a 1.013 OPS through 49 plate appearances. That’s unlikely to continue — he profiles as about a league-average hitter — but it’s still an encouraging sign.
At worst, he’s a relatively cheap number two hitter in a lineup implied for 4.4 runs, with multi-position eligibility including at a thin second base. We could do a lot worse than that.
