The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans ($9,800) Kansas City Royals (-178) at Oakland A’s
It’s very close at the top, with Cole Ragans and Joe Ryan ($9,500) neck-and-neck in nearly all of the metrics I look at to evaluate pitchers. Ragans has a slightly lower ERA and xFIP but slightly higher xERA (though all of the metrics for both pitchers are in the low threes), with about a 2% higher strikeout rate.
Ragans has a slightly better Park Factor score with this game being in Oakland, while Ryan has more friendly pitching weather. Even the matchup is eerily similar (when you factor in platoon splits), with Oakland being the better hitting team by a hair but also striking out at a higher rate.
It’s the strikeout potential that ultimately decides this one for me, though. Ragans has the better numbers, is facing a higher strikeout team, and is probably due for some positive regression based on his elite swinging strike rate.
He also has slightly better Vegas data, as he’s a heavier moneyline favorite, and Oakland is implied for 0.1 runs less than Tampa. That makes him the better raw play in my book — and in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs Models. However, if his ownership projection remains considerably higher, Ryan is the better GPP option, as everything else is extremely tight.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hunter Brown ($7,000) Houston Astros (-120) at Chicago White Sox
We’ll get to find out tonight if bad pitching beats bad pitching or vice versa, as Hunter Brown brings his 5.00 ERA into a matchup with the worst offense in baseball. The White Sox’s 77 wRC+ against righties is five points clear of the next worst team, making this easily the best possible matchup for a starter.
There’s also room for some optimism based on Brown’s stat line. He has xERA, xFIP, and SIERA numbers in the 3.70 range, which suggests he’s due for some variance to swing back his way. We’ve seen that lately, as he’s pitched 13 scoreless innings and struck out 16 in his last two starts against the Tigers and Angels.
Those are soft matchups — but not as soft as the one he has today. The combination of recent form and opponent makes Brown a very solid play today, even if he can’t replicate his elite outings from the last two starts. At his price tag, just getting to 20 points on DraftKings would be incredible, and he’s averaged 30 over his last two games.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Gerrit Cole ($9,000) New York Yankees (-175) vs. Baltimore Orioles
We’ve already discussed Joe Ryan as a potential GPP option, but there’s another high-end choice in Gerrit Cole. Cole is scheduled to make his first start of 2024 tonight after being out of action so far with an elbow injury.
He was his usual elite self in 33 starts last season, going 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 27% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate was actually his lowest since 2017 — which is a bit concerning for an older player — but still a strong mark.
He gets a tough matchup in his return against a Baltimore team with a low strikeout rate and a top-five wRC+ against righties. Still, it’s a matchup that the Cole of old could certainly win, and we’ve seen him shut down elite offenses many times.
Of course, there’s no way of knowing if the Cole of old still exists in 2024. With that said, there’s a truism in DFS that if you wait to see it — you’re too late. Cole is projecting for sub-20% ownership in both systems, which is unlikely to happen again if he’s anywhere near his former self tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The series at Coors Field has treated the Dodgers well, with 20 runs scored over the last two days despite the absence of Mookie Betts from their lineup. Even without Betts, they still have four of the top 30 hitters in baseball by wRC+, so it’s not as if the lineup is lacking without their leadoff man.
They also have a tempting matchup against Ryan Feltner ($5,000) tonight, who brings a 5.71 ERA into the contest. While his underlying metrics are better, that discrepancy is mostly due to his home ballpark, so there’s no reason to believe it gets any better tonight.
Feltner is especially bad against lefties, who have a wOBA 74 points higher than righties. Even if you can’t afford the full stack, Ohtani and Freeman should be priorities, with some cheaper left-handed bats in the LA lineup offering options for alternative stacks.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
David Hamilton SS ($4,000) Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman)
While Kevin Gausman ($8,300) is a solid pitcher overall, something stood out to me when looking over this game in PlateIQ:
That would be his numbers against left-handed hitters. They’re bad, which gives us a few options on the Red Sox. While the obvious is Rafael Devers 3B ($5,500), I like the savings by pivoting down to Hamilton. He’s hitting a solid .284 this season with 19 stolen bases through 49 games, and shortstop is relatively thin today.
Gary Sanchez C ($3,700) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Milwaukee is facing a lefty today in Tyler Anderson ($7,700), which means it’s Gary Sanchez time. The Brewers’ backup catcher/DH frequently gets the nod against southpaws, where his numbers are much better.
He has a .794 OPS against lefties and four homers in 46 at-bats — or one per 11.5 ABs. Home run leader Aaron Judge is averaging one every 12.6 ABs. Sanchez is a boom-or-bust option who likely gets pulled when a righty reliever takes the mound, but all it takes is one long ball for him to pay off his salary.
