The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,700) San Diego Padres (-135) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite the smaller slate on Wednesday evening, we have plenty of quality pitching options to choose from. Among those is Cease, who has a top-five strikeout rate of 32.5% along with a 3.50 ERA and stronger underlying numbers.
There’s a bit of risk with Cease today, given the difficult matchup with the Dodgers. Los Angeles has the third-best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching — though they’ll be without two of the hitters that in part drive that number. Mookie Betts has been out with an injury since mid-June, and Freddie Freeman is out on personal business until the end of this series.
That explains why Vegas is bullish on Cease and the Padres today. The Dodgers are implied for just 3.4 runs and are underdogs to the Padres. That’s a solid sign that Cease is at least relatively safe. He leads all pitchers in THE BAT in median and ceiling projection while coming in second in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Logan Webb ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-214) vs. Oakland A’s
Somewhere in the middle of the ability and matchup spectrum lies Webb. He has a 3.72 ERA on the season, with a mix of slightly better and slightly worse underlying numbers. His strikeout rate is an uninspiring 20.5%, though his salary is cheap enough he could pay it off without a ton of punchouts.
He’s facing an Oakland team that ranks just below average against right-handed pitching with a 99 wRC+. Oakland’s 3.2 implied runs — the lowest on the slate — tells you what the market thinks of this matchup. Oakland also strikes out at the second-highest rate in the majors against righties, which mitigates some of the downside from Webb’s low rate.
Webb checks in as the leader in the FantasyLabs models in median projection, as well as Pts/Sal projection. While he isn’t exactly cheap, none of the sub-$8,000 options are especially appealing today, so he might be the best chance to save some salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($8,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (+114) at San Diego Padres
Kershaw will be making just his second start of the season tonight after a shoulder injury kept him out of the first few months. His return was four innings of two-run ball against the Giants, and he was pulled with a pitch count in the 70s.
That’s not super confidence-inspiring, so rostering Kershaw tonight requires some speculation. One would think his leash will be a bit longer, as the Dodgers would love to stretch him out for their playoff run in a couple of months. Optimistically, he could have a pitch count in the 80s, with a best case scenario of around six innings.
The reason I’m bullish on Kersahw — besides his salary and ownership projections — is the matchup. While the Padres have a better overall offense than the Giants, they’re considerably worse against lefties. They rank 17th in wRC+, though to their credit have a low strikeout rate.
I wouldn’t invest a ton in Kershaw tonight, but we rarely see him with single-digit ownership and at this price point. He’s worth a sprinkle if multi-entering GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds are the only team on the slate with a team total above five, making them a pretty obvious stacking option. Their price point makes them somewhat hard to fit around two expensive pitchers, but isn’t outlandish considering their team total.
They have the benefit of the best home run park in baseball and a 10% boost on top of that, according to WeatherEdge. That’s a powerful combination and could lead to some massive scores if the ball flies as well as expected.
Opposing starter Kyle Hendricks ($5,700) has a 6.95 ERA on the season, and while he hasn’t been that bad, his underlying numbers are in the mid-four to mid-five range. Along with the conditions, that’s another positive sign.
Keep an eye on the weather report, though, as some storms in the area could mess with this game. It looks mostly promising at the moment, but that could change by game time.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Isaac Paredes 3B ($4,500) Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
Obviously, the same conditions that boost the Reds today apply to the visiting Cubs. They’re taking on lefty Nick Lodolo ($9,200) — a much tougher matchup — with a smaller total of 4.4 runs.
While the Cubs aren’t projecting super well as a team, it’s worth hunting for players with solid splits against lefties. That includes new acquisition Paredes, who has an OPS 130 points higher when facing southpaws. Here are his splits in PlateIQ:
Zach Neto SS ($4,100) Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The Angels are also taking on a lefty starter in Colorado’s Kyle Freeland ($6,000). Freeland comes into the contest with a 6.23 ERA and ERA predictors around 5.00.
The Angels have a healthy 4.7-run implied total, making Neto underpriced as the leadoff hitter in their lineup. More importantly, he has a ridiculous .421 batting average against lefties this season across 60 plate appearances.
That number is unsustainable (especially given the small sample size) but still a solid sign. The biggest drawback is the opportunity cost of not playing the Reds Elly De La Cruz at the same position, but Neto is an excellent leverage option.
