The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,200) Atlanta Braves (-205) vs. San Francisco Giants
Unlike yesterday where we had a handful of similarly-projecting options at the top, today’s top pitcher is pretty clear. Chris Sale has been dominant this season at age 35, with a 2.79 ERA and even better underlying numbers. He’s also struck out 32.3% of opposing hitters, a top-five mark in the majors.
He doesn’t have the easiest matchup today against the Giants, a top-five offense against left-handed pitching. Still, Sale has been good enough that the matchup probably doesn’t matter much. Vegas seems to think so, at least, with San Francisco implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs today.
It’s hard to poke any holes in the case for Sale, as he combines his elite strikeout rate with an ability to last deep into games. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his last four contests while averaging over six innings per start.
He has the best projections across the board in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models and should be played in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Keider Montero ($4,000) Detroit Tigers (+143) vs. Minnesota Twins
I’m not sure I’m actually going to play Montero, but he’s certainly an interesting option. That’s almost entirely due to his price: DraftKings left him at the minimum salary, but he’s lasted at least four innings in both of his big league appearances this season.
Typically, the $4,000 price point is specifically for openers, while it appears Detroit is using him as a traditional starter. That’s reflected in his 99% Bargain Rating — which means other sites around the industry have him at a comparably higher price.
With that said, now for the bad news. Montero isn’t exactly good. He’s given up nine earned runs in 8.2 innings of big league work this season. To his credit, he’s had some bad home run luck with a 30$ HR/FB ratio (average is closer to 10%), but it’s still not a great sign. He also had an ERA of nearly 5.00 in AAA this season, so it’s not like his MLB results are surprising.
The Twins are a slightly above-average team against righties this season with a 5.2-run implied total, so it’s hard to see a great start from Montero. Still, the salary flexibility he provides means even a single-digit score could be enough to boost your lineups to the top.
Montero leads the FantasyLabs Pts/SAl projection while coming in second in THE BAT’s.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanaga ($8,700) Chicago Cubs (+101) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
A pair of rough starts has caused Shota Imanaga’s salary to plummet more than $1,500 on DraftKings since his last appearance. That makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate today, even in a somewhat difficult matchup with the Phillies.
Imanaga has a 3.07 ERA on the season with slightly worse underlying numbers, and some of his issues in the last few weeks could be explained by regression hitting him. On the positive side, his 14% swinging strike rate is nearly identical to pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Jack Flaherty — both of whom have strikeout rates almost 10% higher than Imanaga’s 24%.
That means he’s due some positive regression in the punchout department, and Philly is a somewhat high strikeout team. The real appeal to Imanaga is his ownership, though. He’s projecting in the single digits, which is far too low for a player of his talent.
Obviously, I won’t be playing any Imanaga in cash games, but getting some exposure to him in GPPs makes a ton of sense today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
One of the reasons I suggested Montero as a possible pitching option is because he makes it easier to afford this Brewers stack. Milwaukee is implied for 6.5 runs at Coors Field today, making them the top team to stack — if you can find the salary.
They disappointed yesterday with a four-run performance but have an even better matchup tonight against Dakota Hudson ($5,000) of the Rockies. Hudson comes into the game with a 5.84 ERA, and even his park-adjusted ERA estimators are all over 5.00.
The Brew Crew are a top-five overall offense against righties this year, so they’re a fairly obvious choice. Their salaries will keep ownership reasonable, so finding a way to stack their top hitters is a great way to build for tournaments.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Heliot Ramos OF ($4,800) San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale)
Due to Sale’s overwhelming lead in ownership, lineups that fade him should probably contain at least one or two members of the Giants. That’s a way to increase your leverage against the popular starter, who you’re already betting on failing to meet expectations by virtue of not starting him.
My favorite way to do so is through Ramos, whose elite splits against lefties are evident in PlateIQ:
He’s not the only Giant with solid platoon splits, but he’s hitting .426 with a bit more than one home run per 10 at-bats against southpaws this year.
Vladamir Guerrero Jr. 1B ($4,600) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros (Ronel Blanco)
After a slow start to the season, Guerrero has hit his stride in recent months. He’s been especially hot lately, with an eight-game hitting streak that includes five home runs and five doubles.
However, his salary still hasn’t caught up to his production, making him a bargain in a winnable matchup against Ronel Blanco ($9,000). Blanco has a 2.49 ERA, but FIP, SIERA, and xFIP numbers are all on the other side of four.
Between the likely regression of Blanco and Guerrero’s recent performance, it’s easy to see the high projection. He trails only Shoehei Ohtani ($6,600) in median and ceiling projection at first base while coming in $2,000 cheaper.
Ryan McMahon 3B ($5,100) Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
It’s worth looking at both sides of the Brewers-Rockies game today, which has a total of 11.5 runs. On the Rockies side, I like targeting their left-handed hitters — since Brewers starter Colin Rea has a .347 wOBA against lefties but just .278 against righties.
Which mostly means McMahon, who’s probably their best overall hitter anyway. Rockies mini-stacks centered around left-handed bats also make sense, though, and should be fairly contrarian.
