The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an 8-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($9,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-186) vs. San Francisco Giants
After having plenty of aces take the mound yesterday, it’s fairly thin at the top on Wednesday’s slate. We have a few “good, not great” pitchers in good matchups and some better arms in less appealing spots as our top options.
The best among those is probably Glasnow, whose 33.6% strikeout rate trails only Garret Crochet among qualified starters. While Glasnow’s ERA is in the mid-threes, there’s also some evidence he’s been unlucky this season. His xERA and xFIP are about a full run lower than his actual ERA, plus he has a slightly elevated HR/FB ratio.
It’s not an ideal matchup with the Giants tonight, but it’s not a shy-away either. San Francisco is roughly league average against righties in both strikeout rate and wRC+. We’d obviously prefer to target pitchers in a better spot (especially in terms of strikeout rate), but I don’t foresee too many struggles from Glasnow either.
He leads the FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling by a wide margin. Glasnow and Nathan Eovaldi ($8,800) are expected to have extremely high ownership today, but I’d prioritize the upside of Glasnow for GPPS — and you should probably avoid pairing them together.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tanner Bibee ($8,500) Cleveland Guardians (-149) vs. Detroit Tigers
I don’t love any of the actually cheap options today. Edward Cabrera ($6,300) stands out from a Pts/Sal standpoint, but he’s been wildly inconsistent and has a very tough matchup with the Orioles. I’m far more bearish on his chances today than our models.
The cheapest of the “good pitchers with good matchups” range is Bibee, who brings a mid-threes ERA and upper-20s strikeout rate into a matchup with the Tigers. Detroit is implied for just 3.3 runs tonight, and they remain bottom-ten offense against RHP despite hitting better in recent weeks.
Both Bibee and the matchup are solid but not exactly elite — but so is his price tag. He’s a solid pivot from Eovaldi of Glasnow that saves a bit of salary and plenty of ownership. That makes him more of a GPP pivot than cash game option in my book. He’s tied with Eovaldi for the lead in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,000) Detroit Tigers (+124) at Cleveland Guardians
Flaherty is just shy of the minimum innings to qualify for MLB leaderboards, but were he to be eligible he’d be a top-five player in strikeout rate. His likeliest outcome is probably a bit disappointing relative to his salary, but his ability to miss bats gives him massive upside tonight.
Flaherty’s numbers compare favorably to Glasnow’s, with a 3.13 ERA and slightly lower xERA and xFIP coming into the game. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine outings, with four 25-point games in that span.
It’s a more difficult matchup than the one Glasnow faces, with Cleveland having the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors against righties. Even with the $500 discount, that still makes Glasnow the better play on paper, but Flaherty is an interesting GPP pivot.
Especially if his ownership projection remains in the single digits. He’s projecting at the lowest rate among all the $8,500 pitchers by a wide margin, so he could be a solid leverage option if he gets back to the 20-point range.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Rangers matchup tonight is an example of bad pitching against bad hitting. Texas ranks 25th in wRC+ against righties — but they’re taking on Chris Flexen ($6,000) who has an ERA and underlying numbers all above five.
Betting markets are siding with the Rangers, giving them a five-run implied total tonight. Given their fairly reasonable DFS salaries that makes them a solid value. Flexen has been especially bad against lefties this season (.873 OPS allowed), so smaller stacks built around Rangers lefties are also in play.
Three of the four other hitters in the Rangers projected lineup are either left-handed or switch hitters, so there are certainly more economical ways to build a stack around them.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Teoscar Hernandez OF ($5,000) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
It could be a big day for the Dodgers as they take on the returning Robbie Ray. It will be the first appearance of the season for Ray and just the second since 2022, as he’s struggled with injuries.
Making his comeback against the best team in baseball against lefties is a big ask, so it could get ugly in a hurry. I used PlateIQ to see which Dodgers hitters are especially strong against southpaws:
Hernandez immediately stands out, with the best ISO and an elite wOBA. Obviously, there are other strong options, but for the price I really like Hernandez.
Jahmai Jones 2B/OF ($2,700) New York Yankees vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Yankees’ 4.9 run total is just off the lead set by the Rangers, so they’re obviously a team worth targeting today. Jones is their leadoff hitter, but he’s priced at just $2,700. That’s enough for me to roster him in most of my lineups.
Beyond that, he’s also hitting lefties much better than righties this season — albeit in a very small sample size. He’s hitting in front of Juan Soto ($6,200) and Aaron Judge ($6,500), who the Mets walked a combined four times yesterday, so he should see some good pitches to hit as well.
Colt Keith 2B ($3,700) Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee)
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Tigers rookie. He hit just .154 in March and April, spent some time in the minors, and is now back in Detroit, hitting .328 with six home runs in July. He’s in a decent spot against Bibee, against whom lefties have a .336 wOBA this season.
The big appeal for Keith, though, is the leverage against Bibee. The Guardians starter is projecting as the third-most-popular pitcher on the slate, so rostering hitters against him is a solid option in lineups that don’t use him.
