The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,000) Detroit Tigers (-127) at Seattle Mariners
There are two strong choices at the top of the salary scale for Wednesday’s afternoon slate, but it’s hard to say no to last year’s AL Cy Young winner when he’s the cheaper of the two options.
While Skubal had a rough first start of the season, his first game came against the Dodgers. Now, he draws a much easier matchup with the Mariners. Seattle was a roughly league-average offense in terms of run scoring last season but struck out as much as any team in baseball.
That’s a solid combination for DFS since Skubal had a strikeout rate over 30% of his own. He should be able to maintain that level tonight while also limiting runs against the Mariners. Seattle has a slate-low 3.2 run total, and this game is being played in Seattle, which is the best pitcher’s park in baseball.
Ownership is expected to be distributed fairly widely across the top options today, which also helps the case for Skubal. I doubt the field is going to condense entirely on one arm, and it’s very difficult to pay up for both of the five-figure starters.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Clay Holmes ($7,000) New York Mets (-205) at Miami Marlins
Prior to this season, Holmes was used almost exclusively as a reliever in his seven-year MLB career. Out of the bullpen, he had solid numbers. In each of the last three seasons, he had an ERA around 3.00 and a strikeout rate in the mid-to-upper 20s.
The logical question is whether he can continue that kind of per-inning production when operating as a starter. His first foray this season was fine but unspectacular, allowing two earned runs and striking out four in just under five innings.
That came against the Astros in Houston, though, while he gets a much easier matchup today against the Marlins. Miami has just two hitters with an above-average wRC+ last season in their projected lineup today, compared to five for the Astros. Miami’s team total of 3.6 is also low, especially relative to Holmes’ salary.
He’s got an outside shot at providing some big upside today if he can last a bit longer in his second start or pick his strikeout rate back up. Even if he doesn’t, he’s an extremely solid floor play. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection at the position.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($10,300) Pittsburgh Pirates (-122) at Tampa Bay Rays
Skenes and Skubal are fairly interchangeable today, with the Pirates rookie holding a slight lead in median and ceiling projection but also coming in at a $300 more expensive salary.
Skenes picked up right where he left off in his first start of the season, striking out seven through 5.1 innings while allowing two runs. He was unlucky to have even given up that second run, with all of his ERA indicators well below 2.0 after his first start.
Unlike Skubal, he’s facing a slightly more difficult matchup in his second appearance of the season, though nobody is especially worried about the Rays. He could also make up for a slight drop in efficiency by having a longer leash, though he did throw 94 pitches in his season debut.
All in all, Skenes has a slightly wider range of outcomes than Skubal, with the Rays being implied for a bit more scoring but Skenes having more strikeout upside. We’ll likely see somewhat similar ownership, which makes Skenes the better GPP play on paper.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
Speaking of the Mets, the cost of their five-player stack almost forces you into playing Holmes alongside them. That’s not a terrible thing, as the Mets’ bats going off increases the odds of Holmes picking up the four-point win bonus, so it’s a nice bit of correlation in your lineup.
The price point on the Mets’ bats, coupled with the two pitchers in the $10K range, means ownership should be fairly manageable for New York. Their 5.1-run implied total leads the slate by a decent margin, and they could separate lineups in a big way if you can find the salary.
They’re taking on Connor Gillispsie ($6,000), who gave up four runs over five innings in his first big league start last week. That came against a softer Pittsburgh lineup, so the sky is the limit for the Mets tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($4,500) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
I’m almost always going to roster Contreras against a left-handed opponent due to the catcher’s strong platoon splits against southpaws. Here are last year’s numbers via PlateIQ:
It wasn’t just 2024. Throughout his career, Contreras has hit .320 against lefties with a .954 OPS, compared to .260 with a .769 OPS against righties.
Luke Baker 1B ($2,300) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
Baker continues to be drastically underpriced this season. He’s hitting third for a team implied for 4.8 runs but is somehow just $300 off the minimum salary today.
Through six plate appearances in 2025, he has three hits, one a double, and a walk. That’s obviously a tiny sample size, but most projection services had him as a roughly league-average hitter coming into the season.
I’m not expecting him to set the world on fire, but he’s an auto-play for cash games at his salary. He leads all hitters in Pts/Sal projection on Monday.
CJ Abrams SS ($5,000) Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Easton Lucas)
The Nationals have one of the highest team totals on the slate today, and a large part of that is due to the matchup with Lucas. The 28-year-old has made sporadic big-league appearances in his career, with around 18 innings pitched in the majors and an ERA of 9.82.
He’s obviously not that bad, but he’s not good either. That’s good news for the Nationals, and especially leadoff hitter CJ Abrams. Abrams has a solid speed/power combination, with 20 home runs and 30 steals last season, and can put up points in a hurry. He’s a nice pivot from Lindor if you aren’t stacking the Mets.
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