The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a ten-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($11,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-199) at San Francisco Giants
We have plenty of strong pitching options on Monday, with the slate headlined by two very expensive choices. That would be Wheeler at $11,000, and Freddy Peralta ($10,500) slightly cheaper. Choosing between the two — since playing them together is extremely difficult — is likely to be the deciding factor in many contests today.
I’m leaning towards Wheeler personally. He has the best Vegas Data on the slate, with the Giants implied for just 3.2 runs. He also has better underlying numbers than Peralta, with both his ERA and xERA about a full run lower. In theory, Wheeler doesn’t record as many strikeouts, with a 3% lower K rate. However, his swinging strike rate is higher than Peralta’s, so those numbers could easily flip.
The argument for Peralta is more based on the matchup, as he takes on a Cubs team that scores less and strikes out more. However, that’s balanced out by a better Park Factor for Wheeler as well as pitcher-friendly weather.
Both are strong choices, but I prefer finding the extra $500 for Wheeler. He leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling, while Peralta takes the top slot in THE BAT.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hunter Brown ($6,500) Houston Astros (+114) at Seattle Mariners
Hunter Brown leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal, but he’s far from a safe cash game play. His up-and-down results coupled with the matchup today give him a massive range of outcomes, and he could just as easily finish with the best score on the day or somewhere in the negatives.
Brown has an ugly 7.06 ERA on the season, though his xERA and xFIP are both in the low fours. He’s seen some of that positive regression hit in his last few appearances, in which he’s allowed seven runs over 16 innings combined.
Brown’s strikeout rate is down to 21.8% this season, but each of his first two big-league campaigns saw him finish in the upper 20s. He gets to face the Mariners today, who’s 28.7% strikeout rate against righties is by far the highest in baseball.
That gives him tons of upside, making him a very intriguing salary-saver for GPPs.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kevin Gausman ($8,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-219) vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m a little surprised that we don’t have a higher projection on Gausman today. He’s slotting in behind Peralta and Wheeler for the best median and ceiling on the slate, but he has a dream matchup with baseball’s worst offense in the White Sox.
Gausman’s numbers are all over the place, with ERA and xERAs in the mid-to-high fours but FIP and xFIP numbers in the very low threes. I tend to lean towards the latter numbers as being more predictive in this case, though. His BABIP of .367 suggests he’s been awfully unlucky considering his career mark is .317.
Even viewed through the lens of his bad numbers, it’s still a great spot against the White Sox. They’re tied with the Giants for the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.1 runs.
Gausman is also a massive value on DraftKings, where he holds a 97% Bargain Rating. He’s an excellent pivot from the more expensive arms for GPPs and should be considered a foundational cash game play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians scored six runs in the first day of their series at Coors Field and are implied for right around that number today. Of course, they’re also extremely pricey, so we probably need even more than that to justify their salaries.
That’s well within the realm of possibility, though. They have a solid matchup with Ryan Feltner ($5,800), who has an ERA over five on the season. Besides the thin air and spacious confines at Coors Field, he also has to deal with hitter friendly weather that boosts home runs by more than 10% according to the RotoGrinders Weather Edge Tool.
That’s a tough situation against a quality offense like the Guardians, who rank tenth in overall wRC+ on the season.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan McMahon 3B ($4,800) Colorado Rockies vs. Cleveland Guardians (Triston McKenzie)
I’m actually more interested in the Rockies than Guardians today thanks to the pitching matchup. Triston McKenzie ($7,000) is uniquely ill-suited to pitch at Coors, with a low strikeout rate and very high 50% fly-ball rate. He’s also particularly bad against lefties, allowing a .229 ISO this season
Using PlateIQ, I looked to see if any Rockies lefties can take advantage of that match up:
It’s fairly slim picking given the Rockies’ offensive struggles, but McMahon is an excellent choice. He’s having a career year, hitting .288 with ten home runs, with an xWOBA higher than his actual wOBA. He’s a great pivot from the Guardians’ Ramirez, and it saves $1,600 in salary.
Ryan Jeffers C ($4,700) Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
It’s an oddly good day for catchers, as we have plenty of options to choose from. Both backstops at Coors Field are firmly in play — and should see heavy ownership — but there are strong options elsewhere as well.
One of those is Jeffers, the Twins’ slugging catcher. He has a career OPS of .824 against lefties and faces one today in Cole Ragans ($10,200) of the Royals. Ragans has been awesome this season, which should keep ownership low on the Twins hitters, but they’re a sneaky stack today.
Vladamir Guerrero 1B ($5,000) Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)
Another team I’m looking to stack today is the Blue Jays. That’s primarily due to the matchup with Mike Clevinger ($5,000), who has a 6.75 ERA/7.13 xERA in 2024.
Toronto’s offense struggled to start the season, but they’ve come alive recently. They’ve scored at least nine runs in four of their past nine games, all against these White Sox or the Tigers. Vladdy has four double-digit DraftKings scores in that span, and he could get there again in a great matchup tonight.
