The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($8,000) Houston Astros (-272) vs. Colorado Rockies
In some ways, it’s nice when there’s an obvious top option on the slate. It makes for one less factor to consider, as long as you’re OK with eating the high ownership and working around it. That’s an easier feat to accomplish on DraftKings with multiple pitchers, which is why I’ll be loading up on Hunter Brown.
What makes Brown even better is his low salary. That salary is because of his terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad start to the season. He had a 9.78 ERA in March/April combined, a 3.42 ERA in May and is down to 1.44 so far in June. That’s a firm enough trend to believe he’s found his groove, even though the 1.44 ERA is obviously due for some regression.
That regression probably won’t come against the Rockies, though. They rank 28th in wRC+ against righties with the fourth-highest strikeout rate, making them an excellent team to target pitchers against. Their Vegas total is just 3.1 runs, by far the lowest on the slate.
Thanks to that low total and his solid strikeout projection, Brown leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Hendricks ($5,600) Chicago Cubs (-119) at San Francisco Giants
With Brown easily leading the slate in Pts/Sal projection, it’s both difficult and potentially unnecessary to find another value option. Most of the top projecting pitchers are in the $8,000 range and could be easily paired together on Tuesday.
With that said, building around an $8,000 range pitcher and a cheaper option could produce some unique builds and free up plenty of salary to use on hitters. The best way to do so is with Hendricks, who, like Brown, is priced more based on his early season futility than his recent results.
Over his past four starts (which make up just 14.1 innings), he’s allowed just one run while striking out 12. The lack of innings is concerning, though at his price range, a five-inning start would be more than enough. The Giants are a slightly below-average offense against righties, so no reason to avoid Hendricks there.
This is also one of the few games on the slate with weather conditions that favor pitchers, according to Weather Edge, which projects an 8% decrease in total runs. With an above-average Park Factor of 59 for pitchers, there’s a lot to like about Hendricks relative to his price tag.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($8,600) Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
One thing I’m always going to do when they’re both on the slate is play the Hunter x Hunter lineup. Hunter Greene has settled into a less high-variance profile than he previously had but is still a solid upside play on Tuesday’s slate.
Now in his third MLB season, his strikeout rate is down about 4% from where it was each of the past two seasons, but his ERA is also down nearly a run from his career mark. He’s clearly figured out a balance between blowing hitters away with his 100+ mph fastball and pitching to contact, leading to better overall results.
With that said, he still has the highest K Prediction on the slate in our models. That’s thanks in part to the matchup, as Pittsburgh strikes out at a top-five rate in the league. He’s a somewhat risky option thanks to the ballpark, as Great American is the best park for home runs in baseball. Since he profiles as a high flyball pitcher, it has the potential to get ugly fast.
Or Pittsburgh won’t be able to get the bat on the ball. Both are possible, making him a classic high-risk, high-reward GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals were our top stack yesterday and remain so today. While they fell a bit short of their six-run implied total yesterday, three of their four runs came on homers, so certain variations of Royals stacks still worked out well.
They’re in a similar spot tonight, with reasonably low salaries across the board and the highest implied total on the slate of 5.7 runs.
It’s hard to pass up that kind of value, though they’ll likely be the chalk team to stack tonight. Therefore, using less-obvious Royals stacks that include later-in-the-lineup hitters also makes some sense. There are plenty of viable ways to get there, so experiment with different versions if multi-entering.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,200) Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
The header is Shoehei Ohtani, but the point of this entry is to highlight Dodgers lefties. They should have a big edge tonight, based on the numbers of starter Chris Flexen in PlateIQ:
The .279 ISO allowed against left-handed hitting is particularly notable, especially considering the predicted wind in Chicago typically boosts home runs by a third.
Jesus Sanchez OF ($3,100) Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
Yesterday, I went with Bryan De La Cruz ($3,200) as the cheap Marlins outfield option. Today I’m going with Sanchez. That’s mostly thanks to the matchup, as Sanchez has far better numbers against righties while De La Cruz is a left specialist. He paid off for us, with an RBI double giving him seven points on DraftKings.
Sanchez is also projecting well as the cleanup hitter for Miami. With the Royals taking on a pitcher in Seth Lugo ($9,600) who’s due for some regression (2.42 ERA, 3.98 xERA), that’s a valuable position to be in. Miami is implied for 4.1 runs tonight but priced well below that expectation.
Josh Smith 3B/SS ($4,000) Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)
Brewers starter Bryse Wilson ($6,000) also has rough splits against lefty hitters, with a .246 ISO and .398 wOBA allowed on the season, which makes Rangers lefties especially interesting today.
The obvious choice is shortstop Corey Seager ($5,100), but Josh Smith is a solid option as well. Smith’s multi-position eligibility means they can be played together, of course, but the savings on Smith make him a solid one-off option.
He’s hitting .300 with a .869 OPS and should have some RBI opportunities as the cleanup hitter for Texas since the Rangers are implied for a strong 4.5-run total.
