The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a twelve-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($8,900) Seattle Mariners (-225) vs. Chicago White Sox
Editor’s Note: Bryan Woo is no longer starting.
There’s an interesting group of pitchers at the top of the slate, with each having their own pros and cons. The leader in THE BAT’s median projections is Bryan Woo, which is largely driven by his excellent Vegas Data. The White Sox are implied for just 2.9 runs, easily the lowest number on the slate.
That’s partially due to Woo’s abilities. Through six starts in 2024 (33.2 innings), he has a 1.07 ERA. Obviously he’s not actually that good, but his underlying metrics are solid as well. His xERA is 1.80, and his worst ERA predictor is his 3.70 xFIP.
So he’s certainly due for some regression in terms of run prevention, but probably not tonight. The White Sox rank 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, just one point ahead of the last-place Rockies. This game being in Seattle is a further boost, as T-Mobile Park has the best Park Factors for pitchers in the MLB.
At a significantly cheaper price than the other top options, it’s no surprise to see Woo leading the field in ownership projection on Tuesday. While he’s not a huge upside-arm, his lower price means he could still easily finish as the best option on a per-dollar basis, keeping him in the conversation for cash games and GPPs alike.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Louis Varland ($6,000) Minnesota Twins (-199) vs. Colorado Rockies
The cheapest of the viable plays today is the Twins’ Louis Varland. That’s entirely based on the matchup with the Rockies, who as we already noted above are the worst offense in baseball against righties.
That doesn’t mean Varland is without risk, though. He’s been back and forth between AAA and the minors this year, with a 9.18 ERA in his four big league starts. While his 4.40 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA paint a much prettier picture, it’s still tough to feel too confident.
The Rockies being implied for just 3.7 runs eases some of my concern while also explaining how Varland ended up with the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate. Still, I’d consider looking elsewhere for cash games, as Varland could torpedo your lineup.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zach Wheeler ($10,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-175) at Boston Red Sox
Wheeler is projecting ahead of Woo in the FantasyLabs models, albeit at a higher price. That makes him a classic “pay up to be contrarian” option, though the extra $1,600 is a fairly steep price for a small discount in ownership.
However, Wheeler makes up for that a bit with his increased upside. We’re projecting him for nearly 2.5 more strikeouts than Woo, giving him a much higher ceiling if he can limit runs at a similar level. His 2.23 ERA suggests he can, though it’s a moderately difficult matchup in Boston tonight.
There’s a similar argument to be made for Paul Skenes ($9,400). Skenes is priced between the two other top options, with arguably the best upside thanks to his absurd 35% strikeout rate. His ownership projections are the lowest of the trio, though they’re all reasonably close. Skenes also has the hardest matchup, making him the highest-variance option.
I’ll be mixing and matching among the three in my lineups today while ideally fitting two of them together — though that’s difficult from a salary standpoint.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Everything is trending in the right direction for Arizona tonight. They’re taking on Angles lefty Jose Suarez ($6,600), who has a 6.54 ERA out of the bullpen this season, and it looks like the Angels plan on using him as a traditional starter today.
Obviously, we don’t expect pitchers to be more effective when tasked with longer outings, so that’s great news for the Diamondbacks. Additionally, Arizona hits lefties much better than righties, with a 26-point jump to their wRC+ as a team.
As if all that weren’t enough, the Diamondbacks’ top five projected hitters cost barely over $4,000 per player. Hopefully, we’ll get their confirmed lineup before the slate locks at 7:10 tonight, but be sure to double-check, as their order could be shuffled a bit.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gary Sanchez C ($3,500) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Yuseki Kikuchi)
I don’t mind pivoting away from Moreno in my Arizona stacks today, as there are similarly priced options throughout their lineup. My favorite player to do so with is Gary Sanchez, thanks to his excellent power numbers against lefties.
Those are immediately apparent when looking at the Brewers with PlateIQ:
American Family Field in Milwaukee is also a top-five home run park in the majors, giving Sanchez plenty of upside. He’s a high-strikeout/low-average hitter, giving him almost no floor but a tremendous ceiling for GPPs.
Juan Soto OF ($6,200) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
We want some Yankees exposure today, thanks to their 5.3 run total — and the fact that their lineup features the two best hitters in the MLB. That would be Soto and Aaron Judge ($6,600). Assuming you aren’t stacking the expensive Yankees, picking between the two can be a challenge, though.
However, I noticed that the Royals starter Brady Singer ($8,600) has pretty strong platoon splits. He’s allowed righties (like Judge) a .252 wOBA on the season, while lefties like Soto have a .359 wOBA. That’s more than enough to break the tie between these two and enough for me to load up on Yankees lefties in general.
Michael Stefanic 1B/3B ($2,000) Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
The Angels are implied for a solid four runs tonight as they travel to Arizona to face the left-handed Jordan Montgomery ($8,000). Los Angeles has the most extreme platoon splits in the MLB, with an 89 wrc+ against righties that jumps to 116 against southpaws.
None of that is driven by Stefanic, who’s yet to draw an at-bat against a lefty this season. However, he’s projected to lead off for the Angels while carrying the minimum salary on DraftKings. Sometimes, that’s enough, especially on a slate where we want to force two high-priced arms in most of our lineups. As always, be sure to double-check the lineups this evening, as Stefanic falling lower in the order would drastically reduce his value.
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