The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 5-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,400) Atlanta Braves (-122) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sale was thought to be the starter yesterday, but had his outing pushed back a day to Tuesday. Like yesterday, he leads the FantasyLabs Models in median projection, though he’s slipped to a close second in THE BAT. He has a 2.71 ERA but even better underlying metrics, with a 32.7% K rate that ranks third among qualified starters.
With that said, it’s not an easy matchup today. Arizona hits lefties much better than righties, with their wRC+ as a team jumping from 104 to 119 — tied for fifth in all of baseball. Sale can certainly overcome that, but it also lowers his odds of having a massive score.
The real question is whether he performs well enough to justify both his salary and ownership projection, both of which are the highest on the slate (at least based on THE BAT’s ownership).
I prefer to look elsewhere in massive GPPs, as the odds are one of the other pitchers will be close enough to Sale to edge him out while allowing more salary flexibility. For cash games and smaller tournaments, his combination of safety and upside is still fairly strong, though.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($8,000) Boston Red Sox (-202) vs. Oakland A’s
With one notable exception (that we’ll discuss shortly), none of the sub-$8,000 arms on today’s slate seem worth playing. That leaves us with Bello as a solid mix between upside and salary relief, as he takes on an A’s team that’s well below average against righties with a 92 wRC+.
More importantly, Oakland strikes out at the second highest rate against righties at 26.8%. Bello doesn’t typically pick up a ton of Ks, but this matchup certainly raises his ceiling a bit. Oakland having a Vegas Total of 4.3 runs is less than ideal, though, making this a high-risk high-reward option.
He’s also projecting for fairly low ownership, so the combination of a wide range of outcomes and leverage makes him an ideal salary saver for GPPs. He’s not my favorite cash game option, though it might be worth taking the risk if you need to save some salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Blake Snell ($7,800) San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
One of the enduring truisms in DFS is “by the time you see it, it’s too late.” What that means is when a player is returning from injury, if you wait for them to look good before rostering them, either their salary or their ownership (or both) typically rises to the point where it’s no longer worth it.
That applies to Blake Snell today, as he makes his first start since June 2nd. He’s been bad when he has taken the mound this year with a 9.51 ERA, but given his multiple injury stints it’s pretty likely he wasn’t operating at 100%.
Prior to this season, he had six straight years of a 30% strikeout rate, plus a 2.25 ERA in 2023 that led to him winning the Cy Young award. If he’s anywhere close to that tonight, he’s a steal at just $7,800 against a roughly average Blue Jays team.
Betting markets are on Snell’s side, with Toronto having a 3.7-run implied total that’s second-lowest on the slate. Snell probably won’t pitch deep into this one, but he also won’t need to, given his salary.
There’s obviously a lot of risk involved, but it’s worth taking in GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
One of the reasons I’m interested in rostering Bello today is because of how strong the Red Sox stack is. Not only does he (somewhat) open up the salary needed to get there, but there’s also the natural correlation between the stack performing well and Bello adding the four-point win bonus to his score.
Boston is expensive, but with their roughly six-run implied total, they could be well worth it. Fenway Park is the second-best hitter-friendly park in baseball (by overall run production) and WeatherEdge had the conditions boosting scoring an additional 17.8%.
That, plus the matchup with Joey Estes ($7,000), a rookie with a 4.39 ERA and sub-20% strikeout rate, make the Sox a fairly obvious stack today. It’s also worth noting that Estes has been much worse against lefties (.366 wOBA compared to .269 against righties), so swapping Wong/O’Neil for cheaper lefty bats could make this stack more affordable.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,900) Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers)
Typically we avoid lefty-on-lefty matchups like the one Alvarez has against Trevor Rogers ($5,000) tonight. However, it’s worth digging a bit deeper to see if we can find some exceptions.
Alvarez certainly qualifies, as he has the best numbers on the AStros against southpaws in PlateIQ:
Alvarez has a .993 OPS against lefties this year, nearly 100 points better than when he faces righties. He’s an excellent play if you can find the salary.
Rece Hinds 3B/SS ($2,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (Cal Quantrill)
The two best hitters by Pts/Sal projection are both bottom-of-the-lineup Reds bats. Along with Hinds, the other is first baseman Edwin Rios ($2,000). The Reds are implied for five runs against Cal Quantrill ($6,500) and the Rockies tonight, so this is a cheap way to get exposure to their offense.
Hinds and Rios have just seven plate appearances combined this year, so it’s hard to say much about them — other than the fact that a few points at a combined $4,000 salary would be more than solid while allowing access to top pitchers and/or hitters in a tight salary slate.
Corey Seager SS ($5,000) Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (Roansy Contreras)
With Angels starter Roansy Contreras ($5,500) yet to exceed three innings in a game this season, it will be mostly a bullpen game for the Angels. This is good news for Texas, as the Los Angeles bullpen ranks 28th in the majors in both ERA and xFIP on the season.
While Texas provides plenty of viable options, Seager is easily the best. He’s hitting .273 with 17 home runs at roughly the halfway point of the season. He (and the rest of the team) could get some easy at-bats in this one, making him a solid option.
