The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-245) vs. Cincinnati Reds
We have a pretty easy top choice today, as NL Cy Young front-runner Chris Sale takes on a below-average Reds lineup. This game is in Atlanta rather than Cincinnati further improves the situation, as it’s a slight upgrade to the Park Factor on the pitcher’s side.
The 35-year-old Sale is having his best season in quite some time, with a 2.70 ERA and 32.4% strikeout rate this season. His underlying numbers are as good or better than his ERA, so there’s no need to worry about regression, either. While Cincinnati isn’t a huge strikeout team, Sale’s own numbers are enough to produce a slate-leading K Prediction.
We also have Vegas firmly on the side of Sale and the Braves. The Reds’ three-run implied total is the lowest on the slate, and the Braves are the heaviest moneyline favorites. It’s hard to poke any holes in Sale tonight, and he’s the clear leader in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Soriano ($7,600) Los Angeles Angels (+150) at Seattle Mariners
There are two pitchers in the $7,000 range I’m interested in tonight, depending on contest types. We’ll start with Soriano, who I believe is the better GPP option of the pair.
That’s mostly due to the matchup with the Mariners, who strike out at a ridiculous 28.8% rate against righties. The gap between Seattle and the next worst team (Oakland) is larger than the gap between Oakland and number eleven Boston. The point is the Mariners are a true outlier, and greatly increase the upside of their opponent.
Soriano has just a 20% strikeout rate this year, though his swinging strike rate suggests some room for growth. He won’t put up Sale numbers, but he doesn’t need to at his salary. This game is also being played in Seattle at the best pitcher’s park in baseball, which should aid Soriano in run prevention.
For cash games, I prefer Jon Gray ($7,000) of the Rangers. He’s $600 cheaper and taking on a White Sox team that’s much worse in terms of run production. Chicago ranks dead last in wRC+ against righties and are implied for just 3.6 runs, making Gray a low upside but a very safe option.
Gray leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projection, with Soriano tied for second with Chris Sale.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zack Wheeler ($9,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-150) at Minnesota Twins
Betting markets have Wheeler trailing only Chris Sale for the best odds to win the NL Cy Young this season, and his stat line backs that up. He has a 2.70 ERA and 27% strikeout rate through 19 starts, good for 21.6 DraftKings points per game.
He has a tougher matchup than Sale tonight, against a Twins team that ranks top-five in wRC+ against righties. Minnesota also has a lower strikeout rate than the Reds and are implied for 0.7 more runs. However, Wheeler is also $1,000 cheaper and should come in at lower ownership than the Braves lefty.
For those reasons, he doesn’t need to match Sale’s production; just stay within a couple of points — provided that extra $1,000 buys you more scoring elsewhere in the lineup. He trails Sale by less than two points in the FantasyLabs models, though THE BAT is projecting a bigger gap between the Cy Young front runners.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox needed 12 innings last night but they eventually got there for a total of eight runs. Somewhat frustratingly, the best fantasy scores came from further down the lineup hitters rather than the obvious choices at the top.
There’s a case to be made for going back to the bottom of the lineup again today as the Red Sox take on another lefty in Ty Blach ($5,300). The two most expensive Boston hitters do considerably worse against LHP and could see a steady diet of left-handed relief pitchers as well.
Going that route also saves a ton of salary and ownership, so it’s my preferred option for Red Sox exposure. Which you’ll want either way, thanks to their slate-leading 6.2-run total today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500) New York Yankees vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
I’m not exactly going out on a limb by suggesting Judge is a good DFS play, but it’s an especially strong spot for him tonight. The Yankees are at home — in the third-best park for home runs in the majors — with slightly positive hitting weather.
More importantly, Judge has absurd stats against lefties, as you can see in PlateIQ:
You can’t fit Judge around Boston stacks (without totally punting at pitcher), but he’s a solid one-off if building around cheaper offenses tonight.
Ian Happ OF ($4,300) Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
Speaking of the weather – the Windy City is providing some very nice conditions for offense today. Per WeatherEdge, the game time conditions typically boost scoring by 25% and home runs by 40%.
I’m not too picky about which players I get my exposure from in this game, with both teams boasting similar mid-four run totals. I do like Happ, though, for a couple of reasons. His 16 homers trail only Christopher Morel ($4,000), but Brewers starter Colin Rea ($7,400) has worse numbers against lefties.
Happ is a switch hitter, while Morel bats righty. I’ll be trying to stack the Cubs, though, rather than pick and choose individual bats.
Joey Ortiz 3B ($3,800) Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
I like the Brewers even more than the Cubs in this NL Central matchup, mainly thanks to the pitching. Jameson Taillon ($8,300) has a 45% fly-ball rate, almost 10% more than his counterpart Colin Rea.
Given the weather conditions at Wrigley, hitting the ball in the air will be key. Ortiz has a solid fly-ball rate, but really, the point of this entry is to suggest getting exposure to the Brewers however you can tonight.
