The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Grayson Rodriguez ($9,400) Baltimore Orioles (-115) at Seattle Mariners
There are plenty of front-line starters on Tuesday’s slate, leading to a crowded list at the top of the projections. There are five pitchers within a point or two of each other — depending on if you’re looking at THE BAT or FantasyLabs Models — all priced at $8,700 or above.
Of that group, Rodriguez might be the best combination of safety and upside. He has a 3.72 ERA and 25.7% strikeout rate on the year, but it’s the matchup that sets him apart. Seattle is a below-average team against right-handed pitching but also has the highest strikeout rate in the majors. That speaks to his tremendous upside today, while their 3.5-run total is a good indicator of his safety.
There’s a case to be made for Luis Gil ($9,800) in this spot instead of Rodriguez. He has slightly better overall numbers and a similar matchup against the Reds. While Gil leads THE BAT’s median and ceiling projection, his recent form is concerning. The rookie seems to be breaking down, with consecutive starts finishing at negative DraftKings points.
The $400 in savings is also important on today’s slate, so I prefer Rodriguez. We’ll touch on a few of the other top options in the next two entries, though, as all are reasonable options.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($8,700) Seattle Mariners (-104) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Of the five highest-projected pitchers on today’s slate, Kirby’s salary stands out. At $8,700, it’s a full $700 cheaper than the next lowest salary, that of his counterpart Rodriguez. He leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projection while trailing only some thin/budget options in the FantasyLabs Models.
Kirby’s numbers are right in line with the other pitchers in his cohort, with a 3.35 ERA and even lower underlying numbers. His 24.2% strikeout rate is slightly lower than the group but not enough to be concerned about.
What is slightly concerning — and explains his lower salary — is the matchup. He’s taking on a strong Orioles lineup that ranks third in the majors against right-handed pitching in wRC+. He gets a boost based on this game being played in Seattle, though. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, with a 15% dip in scoring, according to StatCast.
On a smaller slate, I’d have no problem playing Rodriguez and Kirby together. However, the negative correlation between their odds of landing the four-point win bonus is a non-starter today. Given the high scores we’ll likely see tonight, we need at least a shot at the extra points from both of our starters to have a chance.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,500) Detroit Tigers (-110) at Minnesota Twins
Like with Kirby, the discussion on Skubal comes down to talent versus matchup. Skubal is pretty easily the best pitcher on the slate, with a 2.32 ERA through 16 starts and all of his ERA indicators under 3.00. His 29.1% strikeout rate is even a bit low compared to his 15.1% swinging strike rate.
However, he has a fairly difficult matchup with the Twins. Minnesota is a top-three offense against left-handed pitching this season, with a 125 wRC+ and sub-20% strikeout rate. That’s obviously not ideal for the southpaw Skubal and should lead to tempered expectations.
Still, Skubal leads all pitchers in the FantasyLabs Models in median projection, narrowly edging out Rodriguez and Gil. Whether he can beat them by enough to justify his higher salary is up for debate, but it’s within the realm of possibilities. In his last outing, he took on another team (the Phillies) with strong platoon splits against lefties — and went seven scoreless innings.
Matchup might not be better, given how good Skubal is, so it’s worth getting some exposure to him. Especially considering his ownership projection, which is the lowest among the top group in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
While it would probably be preferable to go with the visiting Milwaukee Brewers if price weren’t an issue, it’s hard to pass up on the value of the Rockies on today’s slate. They’re fairly underpriced relative to their 5.5-run implied total, and we have lots of expensive arms to fit into our lineups.
That makes them an obvious stacking option today, as they host the Brewers and Dallas Keuchel ($5,000). Keuchel might be the only active starting pitcher capable of making the Rockies look good, as he hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.00 since 2020.
His lone 2024 start went poorly, allowing five runs through four innings against the Rangers. With the Brewers bullpen already somewhat depleted following a 10-inning game that utilized an opener yesterday, Keuchel could be left in long past the point of effectiveness.
All of which paints a pretty optimistic picture for the Rockies, who are also on the correct side of their platoon splits against the lefty. I’ll try to pair Rockies stacks with less popular pitching options, though, since they’ll be very popular.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($3,800) Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
The other premier game to target on Tuesday’s slate is Royals Rangers. It has a 9.5 run total, aided by excellent hitting conditions. Per WeatherEdge, the weather should boost both scoring and home runs by about 20% tonight.
When narrowing down which hitters from this game to target, I noticed some extreme platoon splits from Royals’ starter Brady Singer ($8,200) in PlateIQ:
He’s much worse against lefties, who have a whopping .375 batting average against. That means Lowe and the unrelated Josh Lowe ($3,700) are my primary starting points for Rays lineups.
Nico Hoerner 2B ($4,000) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Michael Mercado)
I’m not sure if Michael Mercado ($7,000) will be a typical starter or an opener here for Philly, but his sole big league appearance lasted just one inning. Either way, the Cubs are implied for more than five runs, making them an interesting team to stack.
Those should start with Hoerner, who, at $4,000, is underpriced for his leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s hitting .248 with four home runs and 14 steals on the season — not ideal numbers — but he gets a boost from the matchup.
He’s a regression candidate anyway, with his .272 BABIP about 30 points lower than his career average. Given his solid speed, that number should pick up in the second half of the season.
Brandon Marsh OF ($4,000) Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (Hayden Wesneski)
Hayden Wesneski ($6,300) is another pitcher I want to target against today. He has a 3.60 ERA (mostly in relief) but a 4.81 xERA this season, pointing to some major regression.
Relative to their salaries, Marsh might be the best option to do so. The cleanup hitter is a boom-or-bust option, with a 31% strikeout rate but a solid .270 batting average on the year. He has an elite 51.5% hard-hit rate — at least when he makes contact — giving him a high ceiling for his price point.
