The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,100) Los Angeles Dodgers (-189) at Minnesota Twins
Glasnow checks in as the leader in median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs models and a close second in THE BAT, making him a solid pick if you’re looking to spend up for an arm.
He checks all of the usual boxes today, with a 3.48 ERA dating back to last season and a very strong 32% strikeout rate. Minnesota has been a pitcher-friendly matchup so far this season, with a bottom-three wRC+ and top-five overall strikeout rate that climbs even higher against righties.
This explains why Vegas is so high on the Dodgers and Glasnow. Minnesota’s 3.7 run total is one of the lowest on the slate, and Los Angeles is a solid -189 moneyline favorite. Since Glasnow also leads the slate in K prediction, he’s a strong mix of safety and upside.
That means I’ll be heavily invested in Glasnow in both cash games and GPPs. His ownership in tournaments should be fairly reasonable thanks to the large number of quality pitchers on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon ($7,900) New York Yankees (-192) vs. Miami Marlins
The Vegas data for Rodon is very telling on Tuesday. The Marlins have the lowest implied total of the day at 3.5 runs despite Rodon’s recent struggles. That’s largely due to the Marlins’ weak offense; as a team, they have the worst wRC+ in the MLB through 11 games.
While Rodon has struggled in limited work in 2023 and this season, for a time he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2021 and 2022, he posted consecutive sub-3.00 ERA seasons with strikeout rates over 33%. If he’s fully healthy, the 31 year-old could reclaim that form at some point, which makes him drastically underpriced today.
Obviously there’s some uncertainty there, as we’ve yet to see Rodon regain his peak form. Still, if we’re going to take a chance, the time to do it is when he has an elite matchup.
Rodon leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection and is near the top of the FantasyLabs models as well. He also packs considerably more upside than the other “value” plays. That makes him an excellent salary relief play in all contest types, and one I’ll be targeting heavily today.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,800) Texas Rangers (-202) vs. Oakland A’s
Due to his price point, Eovaldi could get slightly lost in the shuffle between players like Rodon and Glasnow. He doesn’t quite have the upside of Glasnow, and he’s a bit more expensive than Rodon, putting him in an awkward position overall.
However, he’s still an excellent play. He has comparable Vegas data to Glasnow at a much cheaper price and is coming off four straight years of sub-3.00 ERA baseball. While he’s not a big strikeout player, he could outscore somebody like Glasnow by lasting deeper into the game or prove more valuable on a Pts/Sal basis.
THE BAT has Eovaldi with the highest median projection on the slate but lower ownership than either Rodon or Glasnow. He’s a solid choice to pair with Rodon if looking to spend up on hitters. On the other hand, if you can find the salary to pair him with Glasnow, it should prove to be fairly contrarian since most lineups will pick one or the other today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Get used to seeing the Diamondbacks in this space throughout their series in Colorado. They’re an above-average offense on their own accord, but playing in Coors Field makes them the clear top choice on a daily basis.
They were a slight disappointment yesterday, scoring “just” five runs and falling short of their total. That’s not enough at their price tags, but obviously they have the upside for way more. They have an absurd 6.8 implied total today and a soft matchup with Cal Quantrill ($5,000).
Quantrill had a 5.24 ERA last season with the Guardians that could’ve been much higher if not for an unusually low 8.8% HR/FB ratio. I’d bet the house on that number getting worse this season given the combination of regression and change in scenery.
That makes any permutation of Arizona stacks a strong option today assuming you can find the salary to squeeze them in. Don’t forget about the bottom of their lineup either. They’re a fairly balanced unit as a whole, and you could save some salary with late-in-the-order hitters.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonah Heim C ($3,600) Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A’s (Alex Wood)
We’re looking for reasonably affordable options to pair with our expensive pitchers and/or Coors Field stacks today, and Heim certainly fits the bill, at least given the current matchup.
Oakland starter Alex Wood ($5,700) is a southpaw, which is ideal for the switch-hitting Heim. Heim should possibly consider batting exclusively from the right side, actually; his career batting average is .281 against lefties and just .216 against righties.
Given that his slugging percentage also jumps more than a hundred points to a respectable .473 when facing lefties, he’s an excellent option on Tuesday’s slate.
MJ Melendez OF ($3,400) Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
I’ve mainly used PlateIQ to identify hitters with good splits against the pitcher they’re facing that day. After all, it’s called PlateIQ, not MoundIQ. However, the tool is also useful on the other side of the coin. We can use it to identify pitchers who struggle against hitters of a certain handedness, like the Astros Cristian Javier ($8,300):
Check out the difference in WOBA for Javier depending on the opposing hitter handedness. While I’m not too worried about the current season stats (a WOBA of .000 is unsustainable, to say the least), there was a noticeable difference last season too.
This is where the left-handed Melendez comes in. He’s also on the better side of his platoon splits, though with a less extreme difference. Given his reasonable price and limited ownership projection, he’s a strong play today.
Ezequiel Tovar SS ($4,200) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
It’s always worth taking a look at the Rockies’ side of things even when their opponent projects for a much better day offensively. Tovar (and the rest of the Rockies) are pretty cheap for a team with a five-run total, and they just put up seven runs last night.
Tovar doesn’t have superstar numbers by any stretch, but he fits nicely around Arizona stacks if building that way and is a good value for his salary.
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