The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features, in theory, a nine-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. However, there are plenty of weather concerns across the board. Be sure to check out the free MLB Weather Report from our friends at RotoGrinders for up-to-date weather information.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shane Bieber ($8,800) Cleveland Guardians (+100) at Seattle Mariners
Shane Bieber dominated in his first start in 2024. He threw six scoreless innings, striking out 11 of the 22 batters he faced for a 50% strikeout rate. That’s obviously not sustainable — and it came against the A’s — but still an encouraging sign. Bieber has been everything from a Cy Young winner to solidly mediocre at points in his career but appears to be back to top form.
The matchup with Seattle is obviously a step up compared to the one against Oakland, but it’s still relatively pitcher-friendly. Through the minuscule sample size of the start of the 2024 season, they rank 25th in wRC+ as a team and have the league’s highest strikeout rate. They’re more talented than that, but Bieber still has plenty of strikeout-based upside.
He also has Vegas on his side, mostly. The Mariners’ 3.7-run implied total is just 0.2 off from the lowest on the slate — which would be Bieber’s Guardians. Don’t bank on a win bonus from the Biebs, but he should score well even without much help from his offense today. He’s among the top two pitchers in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs player models.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Javier Assad ($6,600) Chicago Cubs (-187) vs. Colorado Rockies
The reason Bieber is only second in median projection in the FantasyLabs models is because of Assad. Despite his bargain price, he currently sits atop the projection for median, though Bieber and a few others edge him out in ceiling.
That’s based on a somewhat optimistic pitch count (that will likely be adjusted down throughout the day) for the former long reliever. However, the matchup and betting markets still paint a rosy picture. He’s taking on the perpetually rebuilding Rockies, who are averaging less than three runs per game to start the season.
That profiles nicely with Assad’s skill set. He’s a pitch-to-contact pitcher who has a 3.06 ERA across 147 innings over the last two seasons but a strikeout rate of barely 20%. While that limits his upside, he’s a fine play in any contest type due to his cheap salary and strong moneyline odds.
How long of a leash he has will likely be the biggest factor in his DFS score tonight, as I’d expect a fairly short leash. Still, that should be enough to justify his price tag. He’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models.
However, be sure to keep an eye on the weather — we’re expecting a late start due to rain and cold.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Reynaldo Lopez ($7,500) Atlanta Braves (-225) at Chicago White Sox
Like Assad, the biggest concern for Lopez may be the Chicago weather forecast. It’s never comfortable having your pitchers waiting out a rain delay in DFS, but both games look like they should be able to take place. If they do, it will be in sub-40-degree temperatures, a huge boost to the pitchers.
Assuming he plays, Lopez has an excellent matchup with the White Sox, who’ve already been shut out twice in 2024. He also had the highest strikeout rate in 2023 (at 29.9%) of any pitcher on today’s slate. Plus, the Braves have the slate’s best moneyline odds.
It’s hard to argue with that combination, especially at his modest salary and reasonable ownership projections. All of Lopez’s 2023 numbers are likely to regress this year, but he has plenty of room for that while remaining an excellent play at his salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves’ 5.5-run implied total is nearly a full run better than any other team today, making them a fairly obvious stack. While they’re expensive, we have enough cheap pitching options that it’s relatively easy to fit them in lineups as well.
Especially if paired with their teammate Lopez. Matching stacks to their pitchers is a solid way to add some extra correlation to GPP lineups. If the offense goes off, the pitcher is more likely to get the four-point win bonus.
That’s doubly true today, where the weather forecast in Chicago could scare some players off these games entirely. Strong projections, bonus correlation, and lowered ownership? It’s hard to do much better than that for tournaments. Obviously, this strategy requires being willing to lose if the game gets rained out — but it’s a risk worth taking.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler O’Neil OF ($4,300) Boston Red Sox at Oakland A’s (Alex Wood)
If you’re not building around “all Braves” outfields, there are some other quality options on the slate. O’Neil is one of those batting cleanup for a Red Sox lineup implied for 4.5 runs on the road in Oakland. They’re taking on lefty Alex Wood, so I turned to PlateIQ in search of some lefty-specialists to target:
O’Neil has comparable numbers to Rafael Devers ($5,400) but at a significantly cheaper price. Thanks, PlateIQ.
Yanier Diaz C ($3,300) Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
The Astros lineup is absurdly stacked, leading to a solid 4.8-run implied total even against a tough pitcher in Berrios. Of course, getting exposure to the lineup isn’t easy. Their top four hitters all cost at least $4,800, which makes them less strong from a value perspective.
Which is where Diaz comes in. He’s cheap at $3,300 and plays a position without much opportunity cost at catcher. He also had numbers last season to rival his more-heralded teammates, with a .279 ISO and .383 wOBA against righties last year. For some context, those are better numbers than either Alex Bregman ($4,800) or Kyle Tucker ($5,500).
He’s an excellent starting point for Astros stacks or mini-stacks and an even better one-off in lineups built around pricey teams like the Braves.
Ketel Marte ($5,200) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes)
Arizona is another team worth a look today, with a 4.7-run implied total at home against the Yankees. Chase Field in Arizona is a solid hitter’s park, and we don’t have to worry about the rough weather impacting many other games today.
Marte is probably my favorite option for the Diamondbacks, thanks to his solid platoon splits against lefties. Last season, he hit .313 against southpaws and .259 against right-handed pitching. He also has solid power with 25 home runs last season, and the leadoff spot in Arizona’s lineup.
