The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,000) Detroit Tigers (-115) at Milwaukee Brewers
For the second straight day, a Tigers pitcher leads the slate in projections. Yesterday it was Tarik Skubal, who delivered with 35 DraftKings points across seven scoreless innings. This time it’s Jack Flaherty’s turn, and he comes in $1,500 cheaper than his teammate yesterday.
That pricing differential might make him an even better play than Skubal was, though the Brewers are a tougher matchup for righties. Still, Flaherty has a 30% strikeout rate dating back to last season, and Milwaukee has a team total under four runs for tonight’s game.
Flaherty is a slightly riskier option, as his ERA over the past two seasons is considerably lower than his expected stats say it “should” be. His strikeouts give him a ton of upside, but getting knocked around a bit by the Brewers isn’t out of the question.
That makes me somewhat more interested in him for GPPs than cash games, but with his slate-leading median and ceiling projections, he’s a strong play in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Landon Knack ($7,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-307) vs. Colorado Rockies
Starting pitchers against the Rockies — at least away from Coors Field — are becoming a borderline automatic play this season. Colorado is dead last in both wRC+ and strikeout rate as a team, and they come in with a slate low 3.2 implied total.
That’s enough to make league-average arms look like Cy Young winners, which is what they did last night against Dustin May. This time it’s Knack’s turn, and he brings a 4.05 ERA and 24% strikeout rate (dating back to the start of 2024) into the contest.
Those aren’t numbers that will blow you away, but he should improve in both categories in the extremely favorable matchup. I’d be willing to pay considerably more than his $7,000 price tag today, making him a very strong play for all contest types at this price.
Knack is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection and has by far the best Vegas data of any starting pitcher tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,000) Houston Astros (-125) at St. Louis Cardinals
In some ways, I’m pretty surprised to see the sub-10% ownership projection on Hunter Brown on Tuesday’s slate. The Astros righty has continued the turnaround that started in the second half of 2024, with a 2.00 ERA and 28% strikeout rate so far in 2025.
Those are excellent numbers, and the Cardinals aren’t a lineup we typically look to avoid with our starters. Nor are they a team we look to target, but I’m not shying away from Brown based on the matchup here.
The drawback is the price tag, as there’s a handful of pitchers with better projections that are priced below his $10,000 mark. However, with the possible exception of Flaherty, none have been as good as Brown so far in the young season.
That makes him a classic pay-up-to-be-contrarian option, who I’m exclusively looking to play in large-field GPPs. It will be hard for Brown to truly separate from the field on an 11-game slate, but he would provide massive leverage if he can.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
For the second straight day, the Dodgers are the clear top team on paper, with a team total that’s half a run ahead of the rest of the field.
On the plus side, this stack is $200 cheaper than yesterday’s edition, and there’s much more value at pitcher to free up salary.
On the downside, they’re still extremely expensive. Given their price tags, they need to lap the field to pay off for GPPs. The five runs they put up yesterday won’t cut it, as odds are at least one other team will put up even bigger numbers.
They also have a slightly tougher matchup against Ryan Feltner ($7,200), who comes into the game with a 2.81 ERA despite two of his starts coming at Coors Field. For that reason, I probably won’t go too heavy on the full Dodgers stack but will look to incorporate mini stacks and one-offs throughout my lineups.
Feltner is noticeably worse against left-handed hitters, so it makes sense to pay the premium for hitters like Ohtani, Freeman, and Conforto while possibly skipping Dodgers righties.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler O’Neil OF ($4,700) Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
Baltimore is another team I’m interested in stacking tonight, as they have a solid matchup against left-hander Logan Allen ($6,300) and his 5.53 ERA since the start of last season. It’s pretty apparent where those stacks should start when looking at PlateIQ:
Those are absurd numbers against lefties for O’Neil, and they’re not based on a small sample size either. His high strikeout rate makes him a boom-or-bust option, but he’s an excellent GPP play as part of a stack or as a one-off.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($3,900) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (Walker Buehler)
It feels a little bit like chasing points to load up on the Rays tonight, after they scored 16 runs against the Red Sox yesterday. However, they have a great matchup against Walker Buehler ($7,500), who has a 5.44 ERA dating back to last season.
The Red Sox bullpen is also beat up after yesterday’s drubbing, so things could go downhill in a hurry today. Diaz is the projected leadoff hitter in the lineup and costs just $3,900, making him the top choice. However, I’m interested in all of the top Rays hitters.
Kerry Carpenter OF ($3,700) Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers (Quinn Priester)
“Kerry Bonds” already has five home runs on the young season, despite missing some playing time against left-handed pitching thanks to his fairly extreme platoon splits. He and the Tigers draw righty Quinn Priester ($6,600) tonight, so Carpenter should be in the lineup.
Priester has thrown just over 100 big league innings in his career, dating back to 2023. In that span, lefties have a .416 wOBA against him, compared to just .311 for righties. That’s excellent news for the left-handed Carpenter, even if he does get pinch-hit for late in the game.
Fellow lefty Riley Greene ($4,100) also makes sense for a Tigers mini stack, as both have a huge platoon edge against Priester.
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Pictured: Mookie Betts
Photo Credit: Getty Images
