The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Baseball is back! Our first full slate of the regular season is today, with an eight-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($9,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-230) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pitcher decisions are always tough in DFS the first few times through the rotation. With most starters on a pitch count, on paper, the highest-priced arms are unlikely to pay off their salaries, at least relative to what we’d want in the middle of the season. That’s doubly true on Opening Day, when the slate is made up almost exclusively of every team’s ace.
On the other hand, if every pitcher is expected to be pulled early, the score we need from our top arm is lower than it typically is, so there’s an argument for paying up for pitching.
Glasnow comes to Los Angeles via an off-season trade from the Rays, where he posted a 3.53 ERA and 33% strikeout rate in 2023. That was a timely acquisition, as the Dodgers have three starters currently on the injured list. While Glasnow may not be the best pitcher on the Dodgers by season’s end, he’s certainly an ace by most metrics.
That excellent strikeout rate makes him worth paying up for today. He finished second among starters with at least 100 IP last season in the category, and leads our model in K projections. He also leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems in median and ceiling, making him a strong option in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jesus Luzardo ($7,600) Miami Marlins (-132) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
There’s a handful of arms with similar Pts/Sal projections at different price points today. That means the best option is arguably the one that fits your roster construction and salary needs.
With that said, in a vacuum, my favorite pick is Luzardo. The Pirates team total of 3.6 runs is nearly as low as any team on the slate. Additionally, he had the best 2023 strikeout rate of any sub-$8,000 pitcher, while Pittsburgh struck out at a top-ten rate against lefties last season.
That gives him more upside than players like Frankie Montas ($6,300) or Jose Berrios ($7,100), both of whom project for slightly better Pts/Sal numbers today. However, if going down to one of the cheaper options appreciably improves your lineups elsewhere, I’d be fine pivoting off Luzardo.
Particularly in tournaments, where the Marlins hurler has one of the highest ownership projections on the slate.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yu Darvish ($8,200) San Diego Padres (-113) vs. San Francisco Giants
We currently have Darvish projected for single-digit ownership on today’s main slate, which would make him an excellent GPP option. Darvish is coming off a slightly down year in 2023, in which he posted his lowest strikeout rate of his MLB career and an ERA over 4.5.
On the one hand, that’s somewhat concerning for the now 37-year-old. However, he’s due for a bit of regression. Both his xERA and xFIP were below four, and his swinging strike rate was solid. Even under the likely scenario he never gets back to his prime form, he’s still a solid arm at this price point.
It’s also a bonus that he’s already made one start this season in the Seoul Series last week. Despite facing a tough opponent in the Dodgers, Darvish allowed just two hits through 3.2 innings and one unearned run. He will likely have a longer leash than most starters today since he’s already got some regular-season action.
It’s also a solid matchup. The Giants had a top-10 strikeout rate against righties and are implied for just 3.8 runs. Check back in on ownership projections to see if they change, but if they don’t he’s an excellent GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds come in extremely reasonably priced today, with an average of just under $4,000 per player across their top-five hitters. That’s despite being just 0.1 runs off the Dodgers for the highest implied total on the slate, at 5.1 runs. A similar stack built around Los Angeles would cost nearly $9,000 more.
Their projection is largely thanks to an excellent pitching matchup against the Nationals Josiah Gray ($6,000). Gray had a strong 3.91 ERA last season, but advanced metrics suggest he got lucky. His xERA and xFIP were both over 5.00 — as was his ERA in 2021 and 2022.
The field isn’t going to overlook the obvious value on the Reds today, so consider alternate options or pair them with less popular pitchers/other hitters for tournaments. This game also features the best Park Factor for hitters on the slate, making it one to target.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Vierling 3B/OF ($3,500) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Garrett Crochet)
Vierling is getting the nod for the leadoff spot for Detroit, who are implied for a solid 4.3 runs today against the White Sox Garrett Crochet. Crochet is a converted reliever who’s (allegedly) going to be used as a full starter, not an opener, in 2024.
While he’s probably better than his limited sample size xERA of 6.48 last season, the move to full-starter duty likely comes with some bumps on the road. If he leaves early, the Tigers get the pleasure of facing FanGraph’s 30th-ranked bullpen the rest of the way.
On top of that, Vierling is simply too cheap, considering his spot in the order. He’s a strong value with some upside, and his multi-position eligibility makes him easy to fit around various lineup constructions.
Will Smith C ($4,800 DraftKings) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)
The Dodgers lead the slate with their 5.2-run implied total today. If you aren’t running a Dodgers stack, you’re still going to want some exposure to their offense.
My favorite way to get there is through Smith. He’s the only catcher we have projected for more than seven DraftKings points, and he’s north of eight. Despite that, he’s somewhat reasonably priced, considering how much he stands out over the rest of the position — and relative to his team. He’s the cheapest Dodger in the top six of their lineup, tied with Max Muncy ($4,800).
Smith will also be the chalkiest Dodger — for the reasons mentioned above — but we can eat that chalk at some positions if we stay contrarian elsewhere.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($6,000) Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees (Nester Cortes)
My favorite thing about our premium PlateIQ tool is the ability to visualize platoon splits at a glance. Typically, we prefer hitters against opposite-handed starters — but that’s not always the case. A perfect example today is Yordan Alvarez, who has excellent numbers against fellow lefties:
The theoretically bad matchup and price tag should keep ownership down on Alvarez despite having arguably the best numbers against lefties for a team implied for 4.8-runs. Platoon splits are probably slightly overrated by the field in general, making this an excellent time to jump on Alvarez as a somewhat contrarian play.
