The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes ($10,000) Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) at Miami Marlins
The typical debate for the first few weeks of the MLB season is whether or not it’s worth it to pay up for the top pitchers. Aces tend to be on somewhat limited pitch counts early in the season, which makes their price tags harder to stomach, especially when there are cheaper options with similar implied opponent totals.
Paul Skenes makes that not a debate today. The Pirates’ breakout star and NL Rookie of the Year was third in the MLB with a 33.1% K rate last season and was an elite fantasy asset in limited innings throughout the season. That should continue into 2025, and he gets a great matchup to start the season.
He’s taking on the Marlins, who come into the year with a win total of just 63.5 or so. They’re implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs, while Skenes leads our models with his 7.6 K prediction. You can’t ask for much more than allowing the fewest runs while striking out the most batters.
Most lineups will find the salary to pay up for Skenes, so there’s a case to fade him in GPPs based on ownership. However, for cash games and tighter builds, he should be included with confidence. He leads our projections in median and ceiling by a comfortable margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Yusei Kikuchi ($6,900) Los Angeles Angels (-155) at Chicago White Sox
The only pitcher with a better matchup than Skenes on the main slate is Yusei Kikuchi, who gets to start his season against the dreadful White Sox. No single hitter in Chicago’s projected lineup finished last season with an average or better wRC+, and they were even worse against southpaws.
Kikuchi wasn’t great last year, finishing with an ERA just over 4.00. However, he had a very strong 28% strikeout rate, as well as ERA predictors a good bit lower than his actual ERA. Combined with the incredibly soft matchup, that’s enough to project him very well on Opening Day.
Kikuchi ranks third in median projection, despite being the fourth cheapest arm on the slate. That obviously makes him a massive value, and he leads the Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin. He’s an absolute must in cash games.
For GPPs, it’s a similar story as with Skenes. Kikuchi is an elite on-paper play but will come with correspondingly high ownership. I’ll try to avoid playing the two chalky arms together unless pairing them with a contrarian stack, but most or all of my tournament lineups will have one or the other.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($7,400) Cincinnati Reds (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants
Hunter Greene is a notoriously high-variance arm, with nearly 25% of his starts last season producing 30 or more DraftKings points — and a similar number giving you a dozen points or less.
The fireballing righty averages around 98 MPH on his fastball but has a limited arsenal that fails him if and when opponents catch up on his timing. He tends to fade heavily throughout games, with a 1.39 ERA his first time through the order that jumped to 4.19 his second time around the lineup.
Normally that’s not a good thing, as we need pitchers to go deeper into games for fantasy production. However, early in the season it might be a feature, not a bug. With most pitchers likely to get quicker hooks than usual, Greene missing a ton of bats before exiting early is possibly the dream scenario.
More importantly, we’re projecting him for single-digit ownership today. He’s also a strong value at DraftKings with a 98% Bargain Rating, so it’s a perfect storm for some exposure to the Reds ace.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
There’s not a lot of great offensive options today, with just three teams implied for at least four runs, and none of those over 4.2 That makes it important to not break the bank on your stacks, since it’s somewhat unlikely that any team separates by a huge amount in the run column.
Fortunately, the team with the best implied total is also reasonably cheap. That’s the Angels, who are lucky enough to open the season against the White Sox.
Chicago’s Opening Day starter is Sean Burke ($6,300), who has less than 20 innings of MLB service to his name. To his credit, Burke was great in very limited 2024 action, but he had a 6.75 ERA in spring training prior to this year.
That’s a bad sign and makes the Angels reasonable salaries seem more than fair. Like Skenes and Kikuchi, they’re a fairly obvious top option today, so consider different Angels configurations for larger field GPPs.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trea Turner SS ($5,300) Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore)
Shortstop is a surprisingly strong position today despite the low totals throughout the league. There are three solid options to pay up for, but my favorite is probably Turner.
That’s because of the pitching matchup. Not only is MacKenzie Gore one of the weaker opening day starters, he’s also a lefty. Turner excels against southpaws, as is apparent in PlateIQ:
While I wouldn’t fault anyone for pivoting to Bobby Witt ($5,900) or Elly De La Cruz ($5,700), the savings and matchup make Turner the stronger overall play.
Carlos Santana 1B ($3,400) Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
The case for Santana is similar to that for Turner. Santana is a switch hitter who had a .934 OPS against lefties last year but just .676 against righties. Since his salary is based on his overall performance — which came mostly against righties — he’s underpriced for this specific matchup.
Ragans is a tougher matchup, though, and Santana is much worse against righties than Turner is. However, that’s why he’s so much cheaper. He’s not a priority play for me, but he makes a lot of sense in lineups that spend up at both pitcher spots.
Rafael Devers 3B ($4,900) Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
The Red Sox are a sneaky potential stacking pivot and/or mini stack option today despite their sub-4.0 run total.
That’s partially due to the splits of their opposing pitcher. Eovaldi allowed an OPS 100 points higher against lefties than righties last season — and three of the first four Boston hitters are left-handed. The best among them is Devers, but I’ll be primarily including him as part of Boston mini stacks.
Devers himself should be fairly highly owned, but the hitters around him are all somewhat contrarian. Grouping them together is a way to be unique with at least part of your roster.
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