The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Seth Lugo ($9,500) Kansas City Royals (-147) at Oakland A’s
There are not really any truly elite pitching options today, but the best projections belong to the Royals’ Lugo. He comes into this game with an ERA of just 2.40 and is taking on a below-average Oakland offense. The A’s have a Vegas Total of just 3.8 runs, the lowest mark on the slate.
That 3.8 is the lowest total on the board is somewhat telling but still a good sign for Lugo’s chances. His underlying metrics are a bit concerning, though, with his xFIP, xERA, and SIERA all around 3.90. That’s tied to the fact that he has just a 20.2% strikeout rate since those ERA indicators place a high value on strikeouts while assuming balls put in play will even out.
However, that’s where this matchup comes in. Oakland strikes out at the second-highest rate against righties, 26.6%. If Lugo can continue his excellent run-prevention, the matchup boosts his strikeout potential to the point where he has solid upside relative to this smaller slate.
It’s certainly viable to avoid the top tier of pitchers all together, but Lugo is the best play if spending up.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Simeon Woods Richardson ($7,400) Minnesota Twins (-130) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Both pitchers in this game are projecting as solid values, considering it has an eight-run total, but they’re both checking in under $8,000 on DraftKings. The favored Richardson is slightly cheaper, though, making him the better value option.
Richardson is essentially just a cheaper Seth Lugo. He has a strong 3.29 ERA, but ERA predictors about a run higher thanks to his 20.3% strikeout rate. He doesn’t get to face a high-strikeout team like Lugo does, but at more than $2,000 cheaper, we can live with that downgrade.
The matchup is still a strong one, with Tampa ranking slightly below Oakland in terms of wRC+ against righties. There’s not a huge upside case for Richardson since he’s not exactly an innings-eater — he’s averaging less than five innings per appearance — but a score in the mid-teens might be enough, given the context of today’s slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Gil ($10,800) New York Yankees (-146) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Luis Gil has been elite this year, but the combination of matchup and elevated price tag make him a tough click. Of course, the rest of the field sees that, too, so it’s likely that he comes in at fairly low ownership — at least by seven-game slate standards.
Gil’s upside is the best on the slate, with a 30.4% strikeout rate and just 2.03 ERA on the year. He’s been a bit lucky in run prevention with a 2.74 xERA and 3.73 xFIP, but those are still solid numbers. His .194 BABIP is likely to regress a bit, but it’s possible he’s just not allowing much solid contact.
Gil has a tough matchup against Baltimore, a top-five offense against righties with a fairly low strikeout rate. He also might be good enough where that doesn’t much matter, making him an interesting GPP play. His likeliest outcome here doesn’t justify his high price tag, so I’d stay away for cash games. However, he’s a classic “pay up to be contrarian” GPP play.
Gil has a slight lead in median projection over Lugo in THE BAT, while coming in just behind him in the FantasyLabs Models.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
There’s not much more to be said about the Dodgers, who are averaging just under nine runs through the first three games of their series at Coors Field. They, again, have the highest implied total on the slate at a whopping 7.4 runs.
They’re taking on lefty Ty Blach ($5,000), who brings a 4.65 ERA and 5.15 xERA into the contest. Los Angeles is the best team in the league against left-handed pitching, with their wRC+ rising eight points to 129.
On today’s slate, the presence of a handful of $7,000-$8,000 pitchers that are firmly in play makes it much easier to afford this expensive Dodgers stack, making the borderline must-play. There’s also an argument for sticking with some cheaper Dodgers at the bottom of the lineup since Ohtani is on the wrong side of his platoon splits here, and the stars are more likely to get benched if this one gets out of hand.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,300) Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
The two best lineups in baseball against lefties are both facing southpaws: the aforementioned Dodgers and also the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona is just mediocre against righties but have smashed left-handed pitching this season.
We can easily see who’s driving that discrepancy using PlateIQ:
Marte is the biggest reason, with an elite .423 wOBA since the start of last season. This year, he’s hitting .333 with 11 home runs in 102 at-bats against southpaws, making this a smash spot. I’m also interested in full Diamondbacks stacks while targeting their hitters who do better against lefties.
Anthony Volpe SS ($4,500) New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin)
The Yankees might get lost in the shuffle, but they have a solid 4.7-run implied total against the Orioles and Cole Irvin ($8,200). Irvin has been solid this season with a 3.03 ERA, but his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all over 4.00.
Volpe is (narrowly) on the better side of his platoon splits against the lefty Irvin, plus has the Yankees elite lineup behind him, so has a high chance of scoring if he can get on base.
Mitch Garver C ($3,500) Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
If you can’t afford the $5,800 price tag on the Dodgers’ Will Smith — or want to build a more unique Dodgers stack — Garver is an interesting pivot. He’s had some struggles this year, with a .179 batting average, but he’s a career .243 hitter whose BABIP is unusually low this season.
He still has eight home runs through 62 games, plus has been better against lefties. His OPS is a borderline-elite .833 against southpaws, so he’s on the better side of his splits by a long shot in today’s matchup.
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