The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a 7-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bailey Ober ($8,700) Minnesota Twins (-185) vs. Detroit Tigers
The main slate of the day at 1:05 p.m. ET manages to miss most of the front-line starters on today’s slate, with the best options appearing earlier or later. That leaves Ober as the best remaining option, largely thanks to his matchup with the Tigers.
Yesterday’s nine-run outburst notwithstanding, Detroit is a bad offense. They rank 25th in the majors in wRC+ against righties, with a well above-average strikeout rate. They’re 3.5-run Vegas Total is tied for the lowest on the afternoon slate.
Of course, that’s not all because of Detroit. Ober has a 4.30 ERA, but most of his ERA indicators are in the mid-three range. Depending on your state of choice, he’s either due for some positive regression or a lot of it. He also has a solid 26% strikeout rate, which gives him the highest K Prediction on the slate.
Considering his moderate salary, that makes him a near must-play across all contest types on Thursday. Nick Pivetta ($8,600) is another solid option at a similar price point, whose value is also driven by the matchup.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jameson Taillon ($7,300) Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Given their reasonable price points, it’s somewhat hard to justify going away from the Pivetta/Ober combination today. The cheaper options aren’t projecting all that much better from a Pts/Sal standpoint, so you aren’t gaining much in projection by taking cheaper options.
However, that pairing should see pretty high combined ownership, so what you lose in projected points, you make up for in leverage. Especially if pivoting down to Taillon, since the extra $1,300 or $1,400 in salary will also allow for some unique hitter builds.
Taillon has an elite 3.03 ERA on the season, though his underlying numbers range from the mid-threes to slightly above 4.00. Through 13 starts and 74 innings, there’s certainly a case to be made that his actual ERA is stickier than his underlying numbers, though.
He’s mostly a pitch-to-contact option, so don’t expect massive upside. That means rostering him is a bet on one of Pivetta or Ober failing — which should include opposing hitters in those lineups as well.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Scherzer ($8,800) Texas Rangers (-137) vs. San Diego Padres
Scherzer’s low ownership projections are, in some ways, very surprising today. He’s taking on the Padres, a below-average team against right-handed pitching, who are implied for just 3.6 runs. That’s essentially identical to the Tigers’ implied total, which is the lowest on the slate.
He’s also Max Scherzer, one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Or at least he was one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Since returning from the IL two weeks ago, he’s made two starts. His ERA is an awesome 1.74 (with a 2.12 xERA), but there are some concerning signs. He’s racked up just eight Ks in 10.1 innings, with the lowest swinging strike rate he’s had in a decade.
The Padres also aren’t a high-strikeout team, so it’s hard to see massive upside from Scherzer without him lasting deep into the game. This also feels unlikely, as Texas will probably want to play it safe as he works his way back from injury.
Still, with no pitcher projecting above 19 or so points, it wouldn’t be that hard for Scherzer to top the slate. With his salary right in line with the top options, he’s an elite leverage play for larger field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
While the Twins implied total is slightly off the lead on the slate, their top stack is cheap enough to make them worth considering on Thursday. Much of that is due to the matchup with Detroit’s Kenta Maeda ($6,300), who’s been awful this season with a 5.76 ERA.
These price tags are somewhat surprising, considering the Twins are a top-ten offense against righties on the year. However, they aren’t without risk.
The weather in Minnesota looks rough, with the likeliest outcome being rain hitting at some point during the game. The Twins could do enough damage before then to pay off their salaries, but it’s obviously not ideal to roster players who may only play six or so innings.
Still, that will keep ownership down, making it a way to build very unique GPP lineups today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($6,400) Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox (Jared Shuster)
Were it not for their price tags, the Guardians might be the best stack on the slate. They’re implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs, while on the right side of their platoon splits by a wide margin against the left-handed Jared Shuster.
The top performer against lefties is Ramirez, but there are many solid options, as we can see in PlateIQ:
If pivoting down to a cheaper pitcher allows you to fit the Guardians stack, it’s an excellent option for Thursday’s slate.
Ben Rice 1B ($2,800) New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds (Frankie Montas)
Ben Rice is a no-brainer today, as the leadoff hitter in a Yankees lineup implied for 5.2 runs today. At his $2,800 price tag, that would be enough information to blindly play him — but the case for him is even stronger than that.
Reds starter Frankie Montas has allowed a .351 wOBA to lefties like Rice — compared to just .267 against righties. Rice has also performed fairly well through the first 14 games, with a .270 batting average. He also gets to bat in front of Juan Soto ($6,200) and Aaron Judge ($6,500), giving him plenty of chances to score if he gets on base.
Yankees stacks, in general, are solidly in play here, as the presence of Rice makes the total cost more affordable.
