The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 12:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Scherzer ($8,600) Texas Rangers (-259) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s a pretty good day for pitching, as two of the better pitchers on the slate both have ideal matchups against bottom-five offenses. One of those is Corbin Burnes ($9,500) who we’ll get to shortly, with the other being Scherzer.
The 39-year-old Scherzer missed most of this season due to injury before making his season debut in late June. Some combination of the injury or his age are certainly catching up with him, as all of his numbers are noticeably off from where they were even just last year. He has a 3.99 ERA and 20% strikeout rate through six starts so far.
Part of that has been bad luck, though. Scherzer’s xERA is about half a run lower, and his swinging strike rate suggests a mid-20% strikeout rate. Plus, there’s always the hope that he’s going to pick things up as he works his way back from an extended IL stint. More importantly, he faces the White Sox today — the worst team in baseball against righties.
Chicago’s wRC+ is a full 10 points lower than number 29, and they rank 7th for the highest strikeout rate. Scherzer should be able to get there relative to his salary in this matchup. He’s projecting for the highest ownership on the smaller slate, but it’s hard to see an argument for fading him. He leads the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Bassitt ($7,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
A different “pitcher of a certain age” is the only arm with a better Pts/Sal projection than Scherzer on the slate. That’s Bassitt, who at 35 has very similar numbers to Scherzer on the year. His ERA is 3.71 with a 21% strikeout rate, though his underlying numbers in both categories are slightly worse.
Like Scherzer, he also has a plus matchup against the Rays. While they aren’t anywhere near as bad as the White Sox, Tampa is a solidly below-average offense with a top-10 strikeout rate against righties. They’re implied for less than four runs today, which you usually can’t say about pitchers in the $7K range.
Bassitt probably doesn’t have massive upside here. What he does have is a considerably lower ownership projection than Scherzer and Burnes while also saving a good bit of salary. That keeps him in play for GPPs, while his Pts/Sal projection obviously helps the cause in cash games.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,500) Baltimore Orioles (-270) at Miami Marlins
Burnes trails Scherzer by less than a point in median projection on Thursday, making him an interesting pivot. On a bigger slate, he’d be a solid “pay up to be contrarian” option, as typically, the higher salary would keep ownership down. That doesn’t seem to be the case today, but he’s still worth considering.
Burnes trails only Tarik Skubal for the best odds to win the AL Cy Young, and he’s been one of the big drivers of the Orioles breakout 2024 campaign. His ERA is an elite 2.38 through 20 starts, and he’s averaging well over six innings per appearance. His 23.4% strikeout rate is a bit disappointing, but his career mark is over 29%, so there’s room for growth there.
Especially tonight, against another bottom-five offense in the Marlins. They’re a bottom-five overall offense, with a 3.3-run implied total. Despite slightly lower projections, Burnes would be my bet for the top-scoring pitcher on the slate, so he’s worth paying up for if you can get there.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
There are three teams with implied totals of at least five runs, which is fairly uncommon for just a six-game slate. All are solid choices, but the price point on the Padres version makes them the most appealing. You can play (almost) any pitchers you want comfortably with this Padres stack.
They’re taking on Patrick Corbin ($6,500), who’s been one of our favorite fades for some time. While the Padres are almost exactly league average against LHP, Corbin has a 5.35 ERA against (on balance) league-average hitting, making this an appealing matchup.
Plus, the move from San Diego to Washington boosts the Park Factor for hitters a decent amount, while the Weather is also slightly favorable for bats. It’s hard to find any faults with the lineup as a whole, though trying to pick out Padres who perform better against lefties also makes sense.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corey Seager SS ($5,300) Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Seager went 4 for 5 last night, including a home run, as his Rangers dropped ten runs on the White Sox. They’re implied for another five today, making him an interesting choice again.
One of the reasons I’m going back to Seager today is White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon ($6,000).
Cannon has been dreadful against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Other Rangers lefties like Josh Smith ($4,300) and Nate Lowe ($3,600) are obviously also in play, but Seager is by far the best hitter of the group.
Heston Kjerstad OF ($3,400) Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins (Roddery Munoz)
Like Scherzer, we’re still getting a bit of a discount on Kjerstad, thanks to his lack of big-league action this season. He’s played in just 24 games at the MLB level but has hit the ball well when he’s been active. His overall OPS sits at .894.
His Orioles have the highest implied total on the slate, and Marlins starter Roddery Munoz ($6,200) has especially bad numbers against left-handed hitting. I want as many lefties from Baltimore’s lineup as I can fit, with Kjerstad offering fairly cheap exposure.
