The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($9,000) Seattle Mariners (-205) vs. Detroit Tigers
Woo checks in at second in THE BAT’s median projections and third in the FantasyLabs models, but he’s probably the safest/most comfortable option on the board. That’s largely driven by the Tigers, who have a slate-low three-run total tonight in Seattle.
This being a home game also helps Woo plenty, as T-Mobile Park is the best overall venue for pitching. Not that he needs it — through 12 starts, he has an excellent 2.08 ERA. While his ERA predictors are all somewhat worse, that’s largely driven by his home ballpark — which isn’t changing today.
The knock on Woo is his disappointing 18.4% strikeout rate, which limits his upside. The Tigers strike out at an above-average rate, but not enough to boost a pitch-to-contact arm like Woo into high upside status.
This makes Woo a solid option for cash games, especially though it’s a bit difficult to see him finishing with the slate’s highest score — which he likely needs to take down a GPP at his price point.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nestor Cortes ($7,900) New York Yankees (-245) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have the second-lowest team total on the slate today at 3.4 runs, while Cortes and the Yankees are huge favorites. That certainly checks all the boxes from a Vegas data perspective for Cortes, especially relative to his sub-$8,000 price tag
Cortes doesn’t have great numbers by any stretch, but his low-fours ERA and ERA indicators are at least passable. Ditto his 22.7% strikeout rate. Nothing to write home about, but workable at his salary. Especially against an Angels team with a bottom-10 wRC+ against lefties on the season. They don’t strike out a ton, but they don’t score many runs, either.
This makes Cortes a reasonably safe option for cash games and a solid GPP option, given the tough pitching landscape on today’s slate. Another cheap option for tournaments is the Tigers’ Kenta Maeda ($6,200). Maeda is being used as a long reliever following an opener, which should drastically limit his ownership. He’s topped 14 DraftKings points in two of four games since moving into that role.
Cortes leads the FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projection, while Maeda takes the top spot in THE BAT.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kevin Gausman ($9,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Given that there are just five games to choose from, it’s unsurprisingly a rough day for pitching. The leader in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections is Gausman, a $9,500 slight underdog whose opponent is implied for 4.7 runs.
That’s pretty bad in a vacuum, but it’s important to remember we’re all competing with the same player pool. The scores we might typically want from a certain price range might not be available, but they also might not be needed to take down the slate.
Which is the justification for spending up for Gausman. His full-season numbers are pretty rough currently after a bad stretch lately, but he’s shown big upside at times during the season. He has three starts of double-digit strikeouts. He also has multiple 30+ point DraftKings performances, which stands out on the slate.
Gausman isn’t exactly a safe pick, given the Baltimore offense, but we’re low on choices. I obviously prefer him for GPPs over cash games — but there are not a ton of comfortable options there either, so we may have to bite the bullet.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
The one positive about the poor state of pitching on today’s slate is it makes it relatively easy to spend down and save money for expensive bats. Like the Yankees, who have an excellent 5.3-run implied total at home against the Angels.
The Yankees are taking on lefty Tyler Anderson ($8,500), which puts them on the wrong side of their platoon splits as a team. However, hitters like Judge and Soto have excellent numbers against any type of pitching, while Torres has considerably better numbers against southpaws.
Therefore, you could justify a mini stack of the Yankees’ top three or pair with the bottom-of-the-lineup hitters to make more unique pairings around what should be the chalkiest team today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($6,000) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Koby Allard)
While I want to play Torres at second base, I might not get there today. That’s because we have Ketel Marte against a left-handed pitcher. Marte has been very good this season overall, but he’s been elite against lefties.
He’s hitting .360 with a 1.129 OPS, and his excellent numbers are clear in PlateIQ:
Bryce Harper 1B ($5,600) Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
The Phillies also draw a lefty opponent today, which is notable because they hit lefties better than any other team in the majors. I’d expect most of their ownership to condense around their right-handed hitters for that reason — but that could be a mistake.
Lefty Bryce Harper has “reverse” splits this season, with both his wOBA and ISO higher against left-handed pitching. That makes him a solid starting point, though I’m interested in stacking the Phillies lineup in general.
