The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a 5-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,400) San Diego Padres (-161) vs. New York Mets
That the Mets — a top-ten offense by wRC+ against righties — have just a 3.2-run implied total says a lot about Cease. His 31.5% strikeout rate is top-five among qualified starters, and he has a 3.46 ERA with better underlying numbers.
You’d expect his ERA to continue to fall toward his park-adjusted measures, especially in home contests. Petco Park is the second-best pitcher’s park in baseball, lowering run production by 8% from the league average. He also has somewhat favorable weather conditions tonight as temperatures start to cool off heading into the fall.
Cease is a great value at his current price point, given his excellent Vegas Data and solid strikeout-driven upside. He should approach 50% ownership in GPPs tonight, but I’m more than willing to eat the chalk on a small slate. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for median today.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Griffin Canning ($5,000) Los Angeles Angels (+130) at Toronto Blue Jays
All of the best Pts/Sal options on today’s slate are also the most expensive pitchers, with Cease holding down the top spot in THE BAT. However, Canning narrowly edges him out in the FantasyLabs models despite the Blue Jays’ slate-leading team total.
That makes Canning an extremely uncomfortable option — but he’s just $5,000. He’s not been good this year, with an ERA over 5.00 and similar (to be fair, slightly better) underlying metrics. Toronto is a slightly above-average offense against righties as well, so the matchup doesn’t provide much relief.
Canning has had his moments this year, though, with two of his last four starts going for at least 17 DraftKings points. We’d obviously be thrilled with that number at his salary, so he’s worth a flier in larger GPPs especially because saving that much salary at pitcher while fading Toronto should create some unique lineup constructions.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($9,900) Pittsburgh Pirates (-143) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The big question surrounding Skenes is if, or how much, Pittsburgh will look to limit his workload down the stretch. The rookie is at 98 innings pitched on the season, and the Pirates don’t have much left to play for at this point in the year.
He’s been elite, though, with a stat line that would likely win him the NL Cy Young award if he was able to sustain it for a full season. His 31.8% strikeout rate is a tick better than Cease’s, with an excellent 2.30 ERA. What really separates him from Cease is the matchup, with the Reds a bottom-six offense by wRC+.
Skenes has lasted six innings in each of his last two starts, but it’s a bit of a catch-22. To rack up those innings, he’ll likely need to be extremely efficient, but strikeouts typically require more total pitches thrown. It will be tough for him to thread that needle and pay off his $9,900 salary, though if anyone can do it, it’s Skenes.
His ownership projections are approaching Cease’s, but he has a theoretically higher upside. Finding a way to roster both aces together should also be fairly unique despite them both having high individual projections, so consider that for your larger-field GPP builds.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
I mentioned fading the Blue Jays as a unique build above because they’re a screaming value today. For less than $4,000 per hitter, you can roster the top five hitters in a lineup implied for a slate-leading 5.2 runs.
That makes rostering both Skenes and Cease at pitcher fairly attainable, but the combination of those two arms and the Blue Jays will be relatively popular. Swapping to some down-lineup Toronto Hitters like 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz ($3,900) could alleviate some of that but at the cost of value/salary saved.
That makes this stack optimal for cash games if played with Skenes and cease, but if rostering them for GPPs I’d look elsewhere at one of those spots.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Joey Bart C ($3,900) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
Another cheap stack I’m interested in tonight is the Pirates. They have a solid 4.1-run implied total tonight against the Angels and Nick Lodolo ($8,000), a mediocre lefty with a 4.55 ERA.
The Pirates are a good bit better against southpaws, with a 96 wRC+ compared to 82 against righties. Some of that is thanks to Bart, as I noticed in PlateIQ:
It’s a small sample size, but Bart has a .396 batting average and four home runs in 48 at-bats. Not bad for his price point.
Taylor Ward OF ($4,000) Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (Ryan Burr)
The Blue Jays are having a bullpen game tonight, with 30-year-old Triple-A call-up Ryan Burr ($4,000) serving as an opener. That’s good news for the Angels, who have a solid 4.2-run total tonight.
The bad news is the Angels lineup doesn’t give us a ton to work with. Ward is a (slight) exception, with a .706 OPS on the season. He’s also been a bit unlucky, with an xwOBA about 40 points higher than his wOBa. Hopefully some of that positive regression hits tonight.
He’s the top-rated non-Toronto hitter in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT tournament models.
Colton Cowser OF ($4,900) Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros (Spencer Arrigheti)
With the massive values on Toronto today, Baltimore hitters could get lost in the shuffle. That makes them an interesting GPP pivot, with their 4.5-run implied total second on the slate.
The price point on Cowser (and most of their top bats) makes them tough to afford, but if fading one of Skenes/Cease for a cheaper pitcher, they make a ton of sense.
