The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($9,000) Minnesota Twins (-121) vs. Houston Astros
Thursday’s slate involves just three games, making it pretty slim pickings for pitchers in particular. The obvious choice is to target the arms in Astros vs. Twins since that game has an over/under of 7.0, while the other two are both at nine or above.
The Twins are slight favorites in that matchup, making Ryan the top arm on the slate. He lacks the truly elite strikeout upside that we typically look for in the top arm of the day, but with just six pitchers to choose from, we can’t be too picky.
That isn’t to say his 27.4% career K% or 27.3% mark last year are bad, but we should temper expectations against a relatively low-strikeout Astros offense. Ryan should at least limit runs today, and he’s bolstered by extremely favorable pitching weather.
Ryan is also projecting north of 60% ownership, so it might be worthwhile to find some alternate options for larger field GPPs. He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Taijuan Walker ($7,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-219) vs. Colorado Rockies
Finding at least one arm from the high total games is likely necessary on Thursday’s slate, both for salary purposes and to avoid completely chalky lineups. Necessary but not especially easy.
There’s not exactly an obvious answer, as we could poke holes in all four of the options. However, the easiest matchup by far belongs to Walker, who’s taking on a bad Rockies lineup. Seven of the Rockies’ nine projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 26% over the last two years, and not a single one had an above-average wRC+ in 2024.
Walker had an abysmal 7.10 ERA last season across 15 starts but was once a borderline ace. Walker dealt with a variety of injuries last season, so there’s a chance he regains some form in 2025. This is the perfect matchup to do so, making him worth rolling the dice on a small slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($9,500) Houston Astros (+102) at Minnesota Twins
My personal favorite pitching option on the slate is the Astros’ Hunter Brown. The 26-year-old had a strange 2024, starting terribly with an ERA over 9.00 in March and April but finishing with a 2.26 ERA in the season’s second half. Some of that was due to luck/variance — his xFIP shows a much less drastic swing — but something clearly came into place for the former Wayne State Warrior.
Brown is a pretty clear “pay up to be contrarian” pivot from Ryan. The extra $500 in salary to get to Brown saves a bit over 10% in projected ownership, which is significant on such a small slate. Brown had broadly similar numbers as Ryan last year, but the matchup is a bit easier for Brown, despite Houston’s underdog status.
Last season, the Twins both had a lower wRC+ as a team and a higher strikeout rate than the Astros. Even with some lineup turnover, that’s likely to be the case again this season. That makes Brown a higher upside option tonight, though pairing Brown and Ryan together is also viable.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are implied for a robust 5.8 runs on Thursday’s slate, while no other team is above 4.6. That makes them an extremely obvious stack today, though their price point is a bit restrictive, especially if paired with the two top pitchers.
They’re taking on the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela ($6,000), who has a career ERA of 4.87 and finished 2024 at 6.57. That’s the type of arm we like to target, and the Rockies’ bullpen doesn’t profile as much better.
I like pairing the Phillies stack with their pitcher, Walker, today. Not only does it make the salary work, but you build in a bit of correlation around Walker potentially getting a win bonus.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jarren Duran OF ($5,700) Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (Charlie Morton)
While I’m using the leadoff hitter Duran as the header in this section, it’s really about the value of the Red Sox as an alternate stack to the Phillies. Their first five hitters come in a bit cheaper than Philadelphia’s equivalent build, and their lefty-heavy lineup looks great in PlateIQ:
Duran stands out at the top, and I’d consider trying to maximize the number of left-handed bats I get in this stack since Morton’s career numbers are a bit worse against left-handed hitting.
Christian Walker 1B ($2,300) Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
With all of the chalk forming on Ryan, a potentially valuable move is to roster hitters against him. Not only will those hitters come in at lower ownership, but you’ll get a double whammy of leverage if they can find success against the popular starter.
My preferred option is Walker, a boom-or-bust power hitter. Target field is an above-average park for righty home runs, and since we’re looking for GPP leverage, we should swing for the fences.
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