The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
This Saturday night, Major League Baseball features a solid six-game DFS fantasy baseball slate, which gets underway a little early at 6:40 p.m. ET to include the fun matchup between the Reds and Orioles in Cincinnati. There are plenty of fascinating matchups to dive into, including the second game of what could be an epic NLCS preview as the Dodgers host the Braves.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasgow ($10,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-177) vs. Atlanta Braves
Glasnow is the stud among all studs right now on the mound and has looked outstanding during his first seven starts in Dodger blue. Glasnow has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the 12 starting pitchers scheduled for Saturday night in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. If you have the salary available, there’s no question that he brings the highest upside on the slate.
In his seven starts for L.A., Glasnow has gone 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA, 2.72 FIP, and 53 strikeouts in 43 innings. In four of his last six starts, he has allowed one run or fewer while posting impressive strikeout totals and earning at least 30 DKFP in three of his previous four. During that run, he had an amazing start in Minnesota that resulted in a season-high 46 DraftKings points, and he also had a strong outing in Toronto in his last start, totaling 30.5 DraftKings points with nine strikeouts in six innings.
Glasnow has the highest strikeout prediction on this slate and always brings a very high ceiling with his elite punchout potential. Even in a tough matchup against the Braves, he makes the Dodgers the heaviest favorite on the slate.
Although he is the most expensive starting pitcher on the board this Saturday, he brings enough upside to make it worth trying to squeeze him under your salary cap if possible.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Framber Valdez ($7,800) Houston Astros (-143) at Seattle Mariners
Valdez looked sharp in his return from the IL last Sunday and will try to help the Astros continue their recent turnaround after a disastrous start to the season. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the second highest in THE BAT X projections.
In addition, Valdez has the second-highest strikeout prediction of all starting pitchers on Saturday. He also brings the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections as well, which is impressive since he has just the fourth-highest salary.
Valdez made two starts before landing on the IL with elbow inflammation and missed 26 days before returning with an effective five-inning, six-strikeout performance against the Rockies at Coors Field that earned him 20.3 DraftKings points. On the season, he has 16 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings.
Facing the Mariners will be a tougher test than the Rockies, but Seattle has the highest team K% in the MLB at 28.7%. They have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and Valdez should be able to pick up enough strikeouts to be a great value even if he isn’t stretched out all the way to go deep into the game. He has a great history in his career against Seattle, going 4-0 at T-Mobile Park with a 2.42 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 26 innings.
The lefty is a great play at under $8,000. He can help balance out spending up for Glasnow and still leave you plenty of salary to stuff your lineup with strong bats.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Andrew Abbott ($6,000) Cincinnati Reds (-100) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Abbott edges out Valdez for the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate in THE BAT X projections and has the second highest in the FantasyLabs projections behind just Framber. He has the lowest salary of any scheduled starter, so going with him should leave you plenty of flexibility to build around whatever stack you have your eye on at the plate.
In his six starts this season, the 24-year-old lefty has put up a solid 3.27 ERA despite a 4.56 FIP that indicates some regression should be coming. His strikeout rate has dropped sharply from last season, dipping from 9.88 K/9 to 7.36 K/9. He gave up a season-high four runs against the Rangers in his last start but still posted 14.4 DraftKings points since he had seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. Before that outing, he had given up two runs or fewer in every start this season.
The big risk factor with Abbott on Saturday is that he’ll face the tough Orioles lineup. Baltimore leads the MLB with 48 home runs, and they have an impressive .331 team wOBA. Despite being a lefty-heavy lineup, the O’s have also smashed southpaws with a .362 team wOBA, which is the second highest in the MLB.
Abbott is the quintessential GPP pick since he’s both high-risk and high-reward. The reward is getting him at such great value with good strikeout potential, but he’s a little too “boom-or-bust” facing the Orioles to be in my cash lineups for this Saturday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Braves and Dodgers typically are the top stacks on pretty much any slate, but with Glasnow facing the Braves, the Dodgers surge to the forefront in their head-to-head matchup this Saturday. Bryce Elder will start for the Braves, and the 24-year-old righty has been solid since being called up, allowing just two runs over 12 innings. He only has six strikeouts, though, and has given up a .331 wOBA to lefties. That could be bad news coming into this matchup with the Dodgers, who bring plenty of left-handed thunder throughout their lineup.
Shohei Ohtani is the obvious place to start. In his last 13 games, Ohtani has gone 19-for-57 (.333) with four doubles, three homers, and four stolen bases for an average of 13.1 DraftKings points per game. His splits are good any way you slice them, but they are especially strong at home (hitting .344 with a .429 wOBA) and against righties (hitting .373 with a .517 wOBA). Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts sandwich around Shohei for an incredibly potent top three in the lineup.
Andy Pages is a great way to save a little salary and still stack more Dodgers. The rookie had four hits and the walk-off winner on Friday and is now hitting .333 with an average of 9.5 DraftKings points per game.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
SS Gunnar Henderson ($5,900) Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Shortstop is absolutely loaded on Saturday night, with Henderson, Betts, Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz all bringing immense upside. Even in a lefty-lefty matchup, Henderson has the highest ceiling projection of the bunch in the aggregated projections and the second-highest median and floor projections.
Henderson is averaging 11.1 DraftKings points per game so far this season with a .279 batting average, 10 home runs, and six stolen bases. He actually has better splits against lefties than righties so far this year, posting a .313 batting average and .426 wOBA in that matchup.
The 22-year-old SS had two hits and a walk in the Orioles win on Friday. As long as he stays so productive at the lead-off spot in Baltimore’s powerful lineup, he’ll be a top option on just about every slate he’s a part of.
2B Michael Massey ($2,800) Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
The Royals bring some good value on Saturday night in a matchup with righty Dane Dunning and the Rangers. Massey has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 2B and ranks in the top five of all hitters on the slate.
The 26-year-old lefty got a late start to the season after dealing with a back issue, but he has been surging lately. His season batting average of .250 is being held back by a well below-average .194 BABIP, which may indicate he is due for some positive regression. Massey comes into this matchup with a six-game hitting streak during which he has gone 7-for-21 (.333) with two homers and seven RBI for an average of 10.2 DKFP per game.
Getting Massey for under $3,000 is a solid way to balance out some bigger salaries, and he is one of a few value plays that stand out when you check out the Royals lineup in our PlateIQ tool:
OF Bubba Thompson ($2,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles (John Means)
Means will be making his season debut after being activated from the IL, and the Reds will likely lean into their right-handed hitters like Thompson for this matchup against the lefty. Thompson is projected to hit ninth but brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate in the aggregated projections since he comes at the minimum salary of just $2,000.
Thompson is 2-for-18 (.111) in his 16 games this season but has managed to steal five bases in five attempts. In his career, Thompson is a .232 hitter with 27 stolen bases in 108 MLB games. At Triple-A last year, he stole 27 bases in 65 games for the Royals and Rangers.
Even though he hasn’t started a game in over a week, Thompson always brings a high ceiling due to his elite speed. If he is indeed in the lineup as projected, he’ll be worth considering as a punt play against Means.
