The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
On Saturday night of Memorial Day weekend, Major League Baseball has six games scheduled under the lights. Two games get the action started at 7:15 p.m. ET when contests lock and the other four games all get underway between 9:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET. There are some big rivalries on tap along with some very fun fantasy matchups to attack. It should be another great night on the diamonds.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,700) San Diego Padres (-120) vs. New York Yankees
It’s a tricky night to figure out starting pitching because the top options have big risk factors. Cease has a tough matchup against the visiting Yankees, but he still has the highest ceiling and median projections in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He has the highest strikeout prediction and the lowest opponents’ implied run total of any starting pitcher on the slate.
In his first year in San Diego, Cease has gone 5-3 in his first 10 starts with six quality outings and a 3.05 ERA supported by a 2.82 FIP and 11.1 K/9. He had over 19 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts before running into a little trouble in Atlanta against the Braves in his most recent outing. He showed how dominant he can be with a seven-inning, one-hit masterpiece against the Cubs earlier this month, earning 41.4 DraftKings points with a season-high 12 strikeouts.
Overall, Cease has averaged 22.5 DKFP per start on the season, and he’ll look to bounce back from last Monday’s rough outing with a better showing on Saturday.
The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball and have been hot lately, winning 10 of their last 12 and scoring 5+ runs in eight of those games. Cease will try to slow them down in the second game of their stop in San Diego, and despite the risk, he still has the top projections of the starters on Saturday’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jordan Montgomery ($7,400) Arizona Diamondbacks (-182) vs. Miami Marlins
Montgomery has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. He is in a much more favorable matchup than Cease as he takes on the Marlins at Chase Field in Arizona.
Montgomery is also in his first year with his new team but hasn’t been quite as dominant as Cease. In his six starts, Montgomery is a solid 2-2 but has a 4.98 ERA and 4.44 FIP. He only has 20 strikeouts in his 34 1/3 innings for just a 5.24 K/9. Montgomery hasn’t reached 20 DraftKings points in any outing this season and has given up multiple runs in each of his last five starts. He has limited damage, though, and pitched at least five innings in every start this season. He has shown signs of coming around, totaling 10 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings over his last two starts.
The Marlins are a good matchup for him to get back on track since they rank in the bottom 10 in team batting average and have the second-lowest team wOBA in the MLB. The Marlins have hit just .223 this year against lefties with a .266 wOBA, so Montgomery should be able to put together a strong outing and maybe even pick up a win since Arizona is the third-heaviest favorite on the slate. He’s a solid mid-range value in this matchup.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Walker Buehler ($8,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) at Cincinnati Reds
For GPP contests, it makes sense to take on extra risk in order to raise a lineup’s ceiling. One boom-or-bust pick that makes sense in that format this Saturday is Buehler, who is still working his way back from his second Tommy John surgery. This pick comes with a little bit of deja vu since I had him in this spot last Saturday against the Reds. That worked out pretty well, so I’m going back to the well again this week.
Before last Saturday, Buehler had been knocked around in his first two starts off the IL, giving up six runs in 7 1/3 innings. He found his groove against the Reds, though, earning 29.7 DraftKings points in six shutout innings with no walks, three hits, and seven strikeouts. Buehler showed he still brings a high ceiling and finally looked like his pre-surgery self.
The Reds couldn’t touch Buehler last week and are a good matchup overall for opposing starting pitchers. They have the third-highest K% in the MLB and the lowest team batting average at just .215. They have good power and speed but haven’t been able to get enough hits to realize their potential yet this season.
While there’s lots to like about Buehler, he is still risky in this rematch since he only needed 78 pitches to get through those six innings. The Dodgers will continue to manage his workload carefully, and if the Reds are patient, they can probably work to get him out of the game early. He has shown enough upside to be a solid GPP play at $8,500, and he makes a strong alternative if you don’t trust Cease against the Yankees or Aaron Nola at Coors Field as pay-up plays.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Even with the Phillies at Coors Field, the Dodgers are back in the top stack spot. They face Hunter Greene and the Reds at Great American Ballpark, and the top five in their lineup are the highest-rated stack on the board. They also cost a little less than a Phillies top-five stack, whose salaries are a combined $28,500. Greene pitched well against the Dodgers last Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, but he has struggled to a 4.19 ERA and 3.83 FIP at home this season. Three of his four homers allowed this season have come against lefties, giving them a slight advantage in the split.
Shohei Ohtani is always a good spot to start the Dodgers stack, and he has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Saturday’s slate. He has gone 25-for-72 (.347) in May with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .458 wOBA. Freddie Freeman is another lefty to consider, especially since he is 2-for-9 with a home run against Greene in the past.
In addition to those two lefties, Mookie Betts is always a strong option at the top of the lineup and has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Saturday. Betts is hitting .370 on the road this season with a .434 wOBA. He has hit safely in nine of his last 11 games with a .349 batting average and 10.1 DraftKings points per game.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Corbin Carroll ($4,300) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins (Sixto Sanchez)
Carroll’s salary has slid all the way down to $4,300, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any hitter on the slate in the aggregated projections. The 23-year-old is only hitting .188 on the season but did pick up a hit in five straight games before coming up empty on Friday.
Carroll has gone 5-for-27 in his last six games, and three of those five hits have been triples, helping him to average 7.3 DraftKings points per game. He only has nine barrels on the season, but three have come in his last five games. He also has a 45.0% hard-hit rate over his last seven games after posting just a 31.3% hard-hit rate over his first 42 games of the season.
On Saturday, Carroll will go up against Sixto Sanchez and the Marlins. Sanchez has let lefties hit .327 against him with a .393 wOBA. Carroll has a sky-high ceiling at this low salary, so this looks like a great place to buy the dip and count on him to deliver against Sanchez, especially based on his splits.
SS Edmundo Sosa ($3,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson)
In their matchup at Coors Field, the Phillies have the highest implied team run total on the board. While their stack isn’t quite as strong as the Dodgers, they do have plenty of balanced value throughout their lineup, including Sosa who comes in with a salary under $4,000. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at SS on Saturday.
Sosa has served as the Phillies’ primary shortstop since Trea Turner (hamstring) landed on the IL three weeks ago. Over those three weeks, Sosa has hit .375 (15-for-40) with eight extra-base hits including two homers with a .507 wOBA and a pair of stolen bases. He homered on Friday in the first game of this series at Coors Field and has double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games and six of his last eight starts.
In the midst of a very productive lineup, Sosa can sometimes be overlooked, but he’s been a very solid producer at his salary. Check out how Sosa and the rest of the Phillies look at Coors Field in our PlateIQ tool:
1B Kyle Manzardo ($2,100) Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
The Guardians called up the 23-year-old Manzardo in early May, and the lefty is starting to find his way at the plate. With his salary barely over the minimum, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B on this slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters.
Manzardo was hitting .303 with nine homers and a .421 wOBA in Triple-A before being called up but is only hitting .209 in his first 15 games in the MLB, which is why his salary is still so low. He has looked much better lately, though, with hits in six straight games including five doubles and a 42.9% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. He has six hard-hit balls in those six games after posting just three hard-hit balls in his first nine games in the MLB.
Since he’s starting to find his footing and hit the ball better, Manzardo is a strong punt play with upside against Soriano on Saturday.
