The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
This weekend, Major League Baseball delivers a sweet seven-game slate for Saturday night that gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET. Even though just one of the five matchups is a divisional game, there are still plenty of good matchups to target and players to consider for your fantasy lineup. As you build your roster for Saturday night, check out some of my top plays below.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zac Gallen ($9,400) Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) vs. Detroit Tigers
On Saturday’s slate, Gallen has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. The 28-year-old righty also has the highest strikeout prediction of all the scheduled starters on the slate, and even though he has the highest salary, his $9,400 is not prohibitive.
Gallen is well on his way to another big year, going 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 3.57 FIP over his first eight starts. He has piled up 45 strikeouts in 44 innings, and his 9.2 K/9 is consistent with his numbers for the last few seasons.
In four of his eight outings, Gallen has produced 20+ DraftKings points, and he is coming off back-to-back road wins that earned him 27.1 DraftKings points in Cincinnati and 17.9 DraftKings points in Baltimore.
He should get a slightly more favorable matchup at home on Saturday night. He has been lights out at Chase Field this season, allowing just one run in 17 innings with 16 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .172 batting average. The Tigers rank in the bottom 10 in the MLB in runs scored and the bottom five in team wOBA with just an 89 team wRC+. They also rank in the top 10 in K%, so they’re a good matchup to attack by going with Gallen on Saturday, especially given his great numbers at home.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,400) Houston Astros (-152) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The cheap starting pitching plays on Saturday’s slate are pretty scary, and our projections indicate that they are high-risk options without much of a ceiling. Verlander is my top value option even though his salary is higher than my usual picks in this spot. On this slate, it makes more sense to pay up a bit for pitching since there are some nice bargain bats highlighted below.
Verlander has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections, and he also has the third-highest ceiling in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the whole slate in THE BAT X projections.
The 41-year-old veteran got a late start to the season but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five outings with just an ugly outing in the Bronx ruining his ERA. He has a 3.38 ERA and 5.09 FIP with 23 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings.
His best fantasy start of the season came last Sunday when he held his former team the Tigers to just two hits in seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts for a season-high 32.8 DraftKings points. He’ll look to build on that outing against the Brewers on Saturday.
Milwaukee’s offense has been good this season, but the Astros have won six straight, and Vegas thinks they’ll keep rolling on Saturday, making them the third-heaviest favorites of the night and giving the Brewers the third-lowest implied run total.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Walker Buehler ($8,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Buehler has the potential to dominate, but he’s still working his way back from injury, which makes him risky. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate using the FantasyLabs projections, and in THE BAT X projections, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and third-highest ceiling projection.
After missing almost two full years while undergoing his second Tommy John surgery, Buehler has made two starts this season. He has only lasted a total of 7 1/3 innings and given up six runs with six strikeouts for an average of 3.8 DraftKings points per outing. Buehler hasn’t dominated, but he has shown glimpses of his elite, pre-injury form that saw him go 46-16 with a 3.02 ERA from 2017-22.
He threw exactly 77 pitches in each start and is still likely not stretched out enough to go deep into the game. He should be able to pitch long enough to qualify for a win, though, if he improves his command.
On this slate, the Dodgers are the heaviest favorites on the board since the Reds have struggled so badly this season. Cincinnati is seven games below .500 and just 3-13 over their last 16 games. They rank in the middle of the pack offensively, but Buehler should be able to get a win if he finds his form.
Buehler is a boom-or-bust play, but his ceiling is high, which makes him an option to consider for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are always a top stack, and they’re usually locked into this spot if they’re on the slate. They lead the MLB in runs scored, team wOBA, and team wRC+ while ranking second as a team in batting average and ISO. On Saturday, they face Cincinnati starter Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft does have a winning record at 3-2 but also has a 4.12 ERA and 4.70 FIP. He has served up seven homers in his eight starts and been especially hittable by lefties, who have five homers and a .386 wOBA against him this season.
Since this looks like another slate to stack Dodgers’ lefties, Shohei Ohtani has to be the first place to start. In the aggregated projections, he has the second-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest median projection on Saturday. He smashed his 13th homer of the season on Friday night and is hitting .404 over his last 15 games, with six homers, six stolen bases, and a wOBA over .500 during that span. He has averaged 12.3 DraftKings points per game this season and 14.0 over his last 15 games.
The Dodgers made a few roster moves on Friday, placing Max Muncy (oblique) on IL and sending James Outman to Triple-A, so the stack looks slightly different behind Shohei. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are still great options, but Andy Pages joins the mix as a nice OF play under $4,000.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Willie Calhoun ($3,300) Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (Jose Urena)
Since paying up for pitching makes sense on this slate, I’ll focus on three cheaper hitters in these picks. Calhoun has brought a high ceiling throughout his career with plenty of power potential but has struggled with consistency. At just $3,300 in a good matchup, though, he’s worth a look this Saturday night. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of outfielders with salaries under $4,000.
Calhoun’s best season came in 2019 when he hit 21 homers in 83 games with the Rangers, and he started this weekend’s return to Arlington with a big game on Friday night. Calhoun went 4-for-5 with two runs scored and an RBI for 18 DraftKings points. He’s been a nice addition to the middle of the Angles lineup since being called up early this month. He’s hitting .365 in his 13 games with eight doubles, a home run, and a .411 wOBA. His 46.8% hard-hit rate shows his production hasn’t been a fluke.
He should continue to get plenty of playing time against righties while Miguel Sano (knee) and Anthony Rendon (hamstring) are on the IL, and he looks ready to light up his former team this weekend. He brings a high ceiling while hitting in the heart of the Halos’ order.
OF Nelson Velazquez ($2,900) Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics (Ross Stripling)
The Royals have the second-highest implied run total on Saturday night’s slate behind only the Dodgers, partly because they have a great home matchup against Ross Stripling of the Athletics. The Royals bring plenty of high-upside value, and their three outfielders all rank in the top six of all batters in Projected Plus/Minus, led by Velazquez, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate.
Velazquez had his five-game hitting streak snapped on Friday but is still hitting .300 (6-for-20) over his last six games. He has a high strikeout rate this season but also has three homers and has very favorable splits at Kauffman Stadium. At home this season, he has a .311 wOBA and two of those three homers.
In their matchup with Stripling, the Royals bring a very high ceiling, and here’s how the rest of the lineup looks on Saturday night using our PlateIQ tool:
1B Dominic Smith ($2,300) Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)
The Red Sox are another lineup that should be a good source of value in a favorable matchup on Saturday night. Connor Wong and Vaughn Grissom are among the top Projected Plus/Minus at their positions, and Smith has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 1B since he comes with a salary barely over the minimum.
In his 13 games since joining the Sox, Smith is hitting just .190 but has hit safely in each of his last four games, going 4-for-13 (.308) with a pair of doubles and three RBI. Smith has yet to homer for Boston but does have a 31.3% hard-hit rate.
The bargain lefty 1B will be in a good spot against Mikolas, who has a 1.48 WHIP this season and has allowed opponents to hit .307 against him with a 43.3% hard-hit rate and 8.5% barrel rate.
