MLB

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Saturday, May 11)

By Zach Thompson @ZT_Sports
May 11, 2024

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

On Saturday night, Major League Baseball continues a busy weekend with a solid seven-game slate that includes four divisional matchups. One of those contests is the second game of the marquee matchup between the Dodgers and the Padres, who played a low-scoring 2-1 contest on Friday night to open the series. If you’re looking for more offense, there’s also a game at Coors Field, where the Rangers are visiting the Rockies for the weekend. With 14 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of options to consider for fantasy baseball.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Cole Ragans ($9,500) Kansas City Royals (-147) at Los Angeles Angels

While the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections have differences at the top of the pitching slate on Saturday, they both have Cole Ragans with the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate. The 26-year-old lefty has the highest strikeout projection on the slate and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections.

In his eight starts this year, Ragans has been very impressive so far in his first full season with the Royals after being acquired in the middle of the season from the Rangers last year in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. He’s 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 2.35 FIP, and 11.39 K/9 rate. He has stacked up 54 strikeouts in his 42 2/3 innings, including 17 strikeouts in his last two starts in which he has earned 30.8 and 23.1 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in six of his eight outings, including four of his last five.

Ragans is in a good matchup this Saturday as well against the Angels, who have scored only 22 runs over their last seven games while hitting a paltry .217 as a team. They only managed one run on Friday night and have been outscored 12-5 in the first two games of this four-game set with the Royals.

On Saturday night, Ragans has a great ceiling due to his strikeout potential and is the stud I like the most for building around on the mound. Against him, the Angels have the third-lowest implied run total on the board.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Mason Black ($5,900) San Francisco Giants (-102) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Black’s Monday MLB debut didn’t go according to plan, but he should be set up to bounce back as a good value play on Saturday night’s slate. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the most Pts/Sal.

Black comes as a bargain after struggling against the Phillies on Monday and giving up five runs in 4 1/3 innings on eight hits with four strikeouts. He showed much more potential in his time at Triple-A, though, going 2-1 in six starts and posting a sterling 1.03 ERA and 3.39 FIP with 29 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. That strikeout potential is mostly from his strong sinker/slider combo, although his fastball can reach into the upper 90s at times. MLB Pipeline ranked Black as the team’s No. 7 prospect coming into the year, and he will get another chance to prove himself while filling in for the injured Blake Snell.

He should be set up for more success Saturday facing the Reds at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park instead of the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Reds come into Saturday’s matchup with the lowest team batting average in the MLB at only .212, and they also have the fourth-highest K%, which gives Black more strikeout potential.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Nick Lodolo ($10,200) Cincinnati Reds (-116) at San Francisco Giants

On the other side of that matchup by the Bay, Lodolo has a high ceiling due to his strikeouts but hasn’t been quite as consistent as Ragans or even Bryce Miller, who are safer pay-up plays but don’t have quite as high a ceiling as Lodolo.

The 26-year-old lefty has made five starts this year after starting the season on the 15-day IL with left calf tenosynovitis. He has totaled 37 strikeouts in his 29 innings but also given up nine runs. He had two games of double-digit strikeouts that earned him over 30 DraftKings points, but he also had two starts in which he earned under 12 DraftKings points, including his last time out when he gave up four runs to the Orioles in only five innings.

The Giants are a slightly favorable matchup and rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories against lefties. His matchup isn’t quite as strong as Ragans’, and his risk factor is higher, plus he comes at a higher salary. He has a high ceiling to target for GPPs but is a little too risky for cash games in comparison to Miller and Ragans.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers edge out the Rangers, who are visiting Coors Field and also a great stack. Even though L.A. only managed one run on Friday, they should be in a great spot to bounce back against Matt Waldron in the second game of their series in San Diego. Waldron is 1-4 in seven starts this season with a 5.82 ERA and 4.50 FIP. He has surrendered five home runs, three of those to left-handed hitters, who have a .418 wOBA against him.

Since lefties hit him so well, Shohei Ohtani is a great place to start your stacks. In his 39 games, Ohtani has 11 homers and a .359 batting average with a .321 ISO and .470 wOBA. After picking up a pair of hits on Friday, he has gone a scalding 15-for-34 (.441) over his last nine games with a .569 wOBA.

Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman are two more lefties with high ceilings. Muncy had a three-homer game last Saturday and is up to nine homers and a .378 wOBA on the season, while Freeman is hitting .354 with a .440 wOBA over his last 18 games. The fact that Mookie Betts is a nice addition to the stack but not the centerpiece shows just how incredibly loaded the Dodgers’ lineup is.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

3B Jose Ramirez ($6,100) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)

The Guardians will face their former teammate Mike Clevinger when they take on the White Sox Saturday night. Ramirez has the highest ceiling and floor projections of all batters on Saturday’s slate and the fifth-highest median projection. He is the top option at 3B by a wide margin, and he brings extra value since there aren’t many other elite options at the hot corner.

Ramirez has nine homers on the season including four in his last six games. Over that stretch, he is 8-for-23 (.348) with a .543 wOBA and a 13.6% barrel rate, which is double what his season average of 6.8% was before that recent surge.

Clevinger has only pitched two innings this season, but last year he gave up 11 of his 16 homers to lefties and allowed a .322 wOBA to left-handed batters, and since Ramirez is a switch hitter, he’ll face him from that side of the plate on Saturday.

OF Dairon Blanco ($3,100) Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)

The Royals face lefty Tyler Anderson in the third game of their four-game set in Anaheim, and they should bring some good value from across their lineup as they look to make it three straight wins over the Halos. Blanco has been a great value play over the last few days, showing off the upside he brings due to both his power and his speed. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders in the aggregated projections.

Blanco is hitting .265 on the season, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts. Five of those thefts have come in his last six games with an at-bat, and he also hit his only homer of the season during that stretch in a massive performance on Thursday that earned him 42 DraftKings points. His playing time has been inconsistent, but his speed gives him a high ceiling whenever he’s in the lineup. Against lefties, he has gone 6-for-12 (.500) with three doubles and a home run for an amazing .650 wOBA in the small sample size.

Here’s how the rest of the Royals lineup looks against Anderson using our PlateIQ tool:

OF Heliot Ramos ($2,000) San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)

Ramos was just called up by the Giants, and he’s definitely worth a look at the minimum salary since he’s projected to be in the lineup against Lodolo. He has the eighth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield on Saturday.

Ramos didn’t stick in the majors after hitting .179 in 25 games last year, but the 24-year-old righty started this season much stronger in the minors. He was tearing up Triple-A, with a .296 batting average, two stolen bases, three doubles, two triples, and eight homers for a .410 wOBA. He has gone 3-for-9 (.333) since joining the team mid-week and scored two runs with an RBI. At such a cheap price point, he doesn’t have to do much to return elite value and provide plenty of extra salary to stack stars in other spots.

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.