The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The first Saturday night of the MLB regular season features a solid six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-152) vs. Boston Red Sox
After George Kirby shut down the Red Sox last night, the Mariners will send Gilbert to the mound on Saturday night in Seattle. He has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections of all the starting pitchers on Saturday night’s slate in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections.
Gilbert also brings the highest strikeout prediction on the slate, and the Red Sox are tied for the lowest Vegas total on the slate, meaning Gilbert should be able to keep them in check. On Friday, Rafael Devers (shoulder) was scratched, and if he’s out again on Saturday, Boston’s lineup again be even thinner.
Last season, Gilbert won 13 games for the second straight year. He also made exactly 32 starts for the second straight season. He finished with a 3.73 ERA and 3.85 FIP while posting a solid 8.92 K/9 rate. This Spring Training, Gilbert allowed 12 runs in 16 innings, but he was much better in his last two games, allowing just two runs in 9 2/3 innings against the Diamondbacks and Cubs while striking out seven in each outing. In total, he racked up 24 strikeouts in 16 innings this spring, showing that he brings plenty of punchout potential, giving him a high ceiling.
Early in the season, paying up for a starting pitcher is tricky since pitch limits are often lower, but Kirby showed just how rewarding the right ace can be. If Gilbert can keep the Red Sox in check again on Saturday, he’ll be able to provide similar upside as a stud starting pitcher to build around.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tommy Henry ($6,800) Arizona Diamondbacks (-180) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Dbacks have dominated the Rockies in the first two games of the season and are the second-heaviest favorite on Saturday night’s slate. They’ve scored 23 runs in back-to-back routs, and Henry will hope for that kind of run support as he makes his first start of the season.
The 26-year-old lefty has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday night’s starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in THE BAT X. He also has the third-highest median projection of all starters in the FantasyLabs projections even though his salary is the 10th-highest of the 12 pitchers expected to start.
Last season, Henry made 16 starts for Arizona and went 5-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 4.88 FIP. He was much better at home, where he had a 3.38 ERA and 4.28 FIP while holding opponents to a .292 wOBA. He faced the Rockies twice last season, giving up four runs in 5 1/3 at Coors Field, but throwing seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts against them when he faced them at Chase Field.
During Spring Training, Henry had a few rough outings early but didn’t allow a run in either of his last two games. One of those appearances was against the Rockies, and he held them scoreless in 3 1/3 innings with three strikeouts. He stretched out to six innings in his final Spring Training outing, shutting out the Guardians and striking out four.
Henry has a high ceiling and a great chance to return excellent value in his matchup with fellow lefty Austin Gomber and the Rockies. He’s worth taking the risk at under $7,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($8,200) Houston Astros (-124) vs. New York Yankees
Brown has the second-highest strikeout prediction of all starting pitchers on Saturday night, but he does come with risk since he’s taking on the powerful Yankees’ lineup. His ownership projection is the seventh-highest of the 12 starting pitchers on the slate, according to THE BAT X, which should make him a very good leverage play given his high ceiling.
In his first full season in the Majors, Brown went 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and 4.37 FIP. He did post an impressive 10.29 K/9 rate, though, and an even better 10.53 K/9 at home. That punchout potential gives him a high ceiling against New York on Saturday. The Yankees have struck out 19 times in their first two games and were shut down by Cristian Javier on Friday night.
Brown is coming off a good Spring Training in which he allowed four runs in 17 innings while piling up 17 strikeouts. He didn’t throw more than five innings in any of his appearances, so he may not be ready to go super deep in this matchup. While there are some risk factors, the 25-year-old still brings enough of a good ceiling to consider for GPP lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As will likely be the case for almost every slate they’re on this season, the Dodgers dominate the top stacks available on Saturday. The top five in the lineup are all outstanding plays, or you can pivot off of Max Muncy to Teoscar Hernandez, who blasted two home runs on Friday.
In their four games this season, the Dodgers have piled up 29 runs and have hit an MLB-leading seven home runs with a .199 ISO, .384 wOBA and 139 wRC+. The team has the second-highest implied run total on Saturday’s slate behind only the Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers will be facing their former teammate Lance Lynn, who will be making his first start after re-joining the Cardinals as a free agent. Lynn was knocked around last season, going 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 5.53 FIP. He gave up 44 home runs in 32 starts. This Spring Training, Lynn gave up 12 runs in 13 2/3 innings and gave up a home run to lefty Brett Baty. Last year, 24 of his 44 homers were to left-handed batters, who posted a .384 wOBA against him.
Shohei Ohtani has the highest median and ceiling projections of all batters on the slate in both Fantasy Labs and THE BAT X projections. As usual, L.A. is not cheap, but this stack makes sense if you can make it work under the salary cap.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gabriel Moreno C ($3,800 DraftKings) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
The Diamondbacks have the highest implied run total on Saturday’s slate after demolishing the Rockies in the first two games of the series. One great way to get a piece of their lineup at a position of need is by going with Gabriel Moreno, who brings a big bat in the heart of the lineup for under $4,000.
Moreno went 2-for-5 with a double in the opener before going 0-for-4 on Friday. He broke through last season with a .284 batting average, seven homers, and a .325 in his first year with Arizona. The 24-year-old is one of the top young catchers in the game, and he is always worth a look at the position.
He’s an especially good play in this matchup with Gomber. Last year, he hit .352 with a .370 wOBA and 139 wRC+ against lefties.
Moreno is just one option from the Diamondbacks’ solid lineup at Chase Field. Our PlateIQ tool (using last year’s stats vs. LHP) shows just how good of a spot they’re in this Saturday.
Wyatt Langford OF ($2,600 DraftKings) Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)
Langford has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all batters on Saturday’s slate in both the FantasyLabs projections and the THE BAT X projections. The rookie is still under-priced based on his upside.
At just 22 years old, Langford forced his way onto the Rangers’ roster with a massive Spring Training. He was drafted by the team with the No. 4 overall pick less than a year ago, and he tore up the minor leagues, hitting .360 with 10 homers, 12 stolen bases, and a 1.157 OPS in his 44 games across multiple levels of the system.
He crushed six homers in his 21 games in the Cactus League this spring and went 1-for-5 in his MLB debut on Thursday. Against soft-tossing veteran Kyle Hendricks, Langford brings high upside at a bargain rate this Saturday.
Victor Scott II OF ($2,000) St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
I had Victor Scott II in this spot Friday too, and Scott let me down with an 0-for-4 against a dominant Bobby Miller and the Dodgers. However, I’m back for more this Saturday since getting a player at the minimum salary unlocks so many other options. You can stack the Dodgers against Scott’s Cardinals or the Diamondbacks very easily if you save with rookies like Scott and Langford.
As I wrote yesterday, Scott isn’t just a punt play, because he brings plenty of upside. He has yet to get a hit in his two MLB games, but when and if he gets on base, he will show off his best fantasy asset- speed. He already swiped one base after reaching on an error.
The speedy 23-year-old stole a remarkable 94 bases in his 132 games in high-A and double-A last season. He hit a solid .303 as well, so he’s far from totally lost at the plate even though he may not be quite ready for this level. Hitting near the bottom of the Cardinals’ order should give him the green light on the bases and give him chances to score runs for St. Louis as long as he keeps starting in CF. At just $2,000, almost any production will make him a good value. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all batters in the aggregate projections for Saturday.
