The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryce Miller ($7,900) Seattle Mariners (-158) vs. Athletics
The Mariners are the second-heaviest favorite of the six games on Saturday night’s slate, and the Athletics have the lowest implied run total on the board. While he isn’t the most expensive pitcher on the board, Miller has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the 12 pitchers expected to start and is a great place to start your lineup construction.
Miller went 12-8 in his 31 starts last season, setting a new personal best in wins, starts, and innings pitched. He had an impressive 2.94 ERA with an 8.5 K/9 and 3.58 FIP. While his walk numbers were slightly up, he cut down on home runs and turned in a very solid season overall. The 26-year-old pitcher was especially effective at home, where he had a 1.96 ERA and 2.45 FIP to go with a 10.4 K/9.
In spring training, he had 17 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings, building up to 5 1/3 innings in his most recent outing against the Brewers. He did give up six earned runs for a 3.77 ERA but looked ready to contribute to a strong Mariners rotation out of the gate.
In his first start of the regular season, Miller will face the Athletics, a team he held to two runs on five hits over six innings in his only start against them last year. He had nine strikeouts in that game, and he has the second-highest strikeout prediction in our models for Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Spencer Arrighetti ($7,500) Houston Astros (-125) vs. New York Mets
Arrighetti has the highest strikeout prediction on the board and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only Miller. He isn’t significantly cheaper than Miller, but the tandem of AL West hurlers can be a solid starting pitching duo between $7,000 and $8,000.
The matchup isn’t ideal for Arrighetti since the Mets do bring plenty of pop, but the 25-year-old showed enough of a high ceiling to trust him as a value in his first start of the season. Last year, he went 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA, a 4.18 FIP and an impressive 10.6 K/9. He was pressed into service earlier than the team hoped due to injuries in the rotation, but he settled in as the season went on and made the needed adjustments.
In his final six games last season, Arrighetti allowed just nine earned runs over 34 1/3 innings, posting a 2.36 ERA and 3.75 FIP over that span. He was better in the second half of last season in just about every category and looked solid in spring training, with 20 strikeouts in 17 innings and a solid 3.71 ERA.
Arrighetti has the kind of strikeout upside that always makes him a good target for DFS, and even in a less-than-ideal matchup, I’m ready to trust his stuff over the other options on the board that all come with their own question marks.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Griffin Canning ($6,700) New York Mets (+105) at Houston Astros
On the other side of that interleague matchup, Canning is a fascinating option with the second-lowest salary on the board. He is coming off a wild offseason after being traded from the Angels to the Braves in exchange for Jorge Soler before being non-tendered and ending up a free agent. After signing with the Mets as a low-risk reclamation project, the 28-year-old righty put together a fantastic spring.
While he flashed potential and had dominant stretches, his numbers lately were unimpressive. Last year, he went 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA and 5.26 FIP. He turned things around this spring, thriving after his change of scenery. In his 14 1/3 Grapefruit League innings, Canning allowed just three runs on 11 hits and racked up 22 strikeouts. While his 13.8 K/9 and 1.88 ERA are likely unsustainable in the regular season, it does show how high the ceiling can still be for Canning.
He starts the season with a tough matchup against the Astros in Houston. It’s a team he knows well from his time with the Angels, and had no success against them, going 0-3 with a 6.69 ERA in nine starts. However, if you believe in the Canning turnaround, he brings a very high ceiling at his salary despite the tough matchup.
On Saturday’s slate, Canning is a very high-risk play, but he is also expected to come at an extremely low ownership. If you’re looking to swing for the fences with your GPP lineup, he could be worth the risk in order to differentiate your lineup and keep a high ceiling. He is a high-risk play though, so other options make more sense for conservative cash game lineups.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using the tournament model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers and Red Sox have split the first two games of their four-game series in Arlington, and the third game of that series is tied with the Astros-Mets game for the highest over/under on the board. Since the Rangers are slight favorites, they have the second-highest implied run total on the board, behind only the high-priced Dodgers.
The top five in the Rangers lineup can all be a solid part of this stack against Walker Buehler ($8,100), who will be making his Red Sox debut. Buehler had a strong postseason and encouraging spring training, but he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP and 16 home runs allowed in 16 starts during the regular season last year.
The Rangers are very stackable against him Saturday, especially since he gave up a .380 wOBA to lefties. Corey Seager ($5,000) and Joc Pederson ($4,100) stand out as a result of that split, and Marcus Semien ($4,500) has the highest rating of all hitters in the Tournament Model.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,700) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
Marte went 2-for-5 with a double in each of his first two games of the season. The DBacks bounced back from their 10-6 loss on Thursday with an 8-1 win on Friday, and on Saturday, they’ll take on lefty Shota Imanaga in his second start of the season. While Imanaga looked good in the Tokyo Series, he had a rough spring training and should be hittable at Chase Field on Saturday.
The Diamondbacks lineup is a little lefty-heavy, but Marte has excelled against southpaws, as you can see in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Marte hit an impressive .342 against lefties last season with a .448 wOBA and 190 wRC+. While lots of small sample-size issues are in play early in the season, that’s from 193 at-bats last year, so there’s a definite trend that Marte mashes southpaws. At a 2B spot without a ton of elite options, he is a very strong centerpiece to build around on Saturday.
Austin Riley 3B ($4,800) Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
Vazquez gave up eight runs on 14 hits in eight innings this spring, so the Braves are a nice lineup to try and stack as well. Riley hit .261 with a pair of homers in his spring training and hit his first regular-season homer on Opening Day. He went 1-for-3 with a double on Friday as well, giving him a .450 wOBA through his first two contests.
He looks locked into the second spot in the Braves’ current lineup, hitting behind Jurickson Profar ($4,100) until Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) can get back in the mix. Riley brings plenty of power potential to this smash spot and has the highest ceiling projection and highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 3B on Saturday night’s slate.
Jesse Winker OF ($2,700) New York Mets at Houston Astros (Spencer Arrighetti)
Since my hitters have been a little pricey overall in today’s preview, let’s finish with a bargain option. Winker has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders under $3,500 and should get a second straight start since the Mets will be taking on a righty. He didn’t start on Opening Day but hit sixth on Friday as DH, going 1-for-3 with an RBI.
Winker split last season between the Nationals and Mets and re-signed with the Mets as a free agent this past offseason. In his 145 games in 2024, he hit .253 with 14 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .338 wOBA. This spring, he hit .265 (9-for-34) with three doubles and a .359 wOBA.
On Saturday, he’s a great way to save some salary and still get good production. He has the highest median and floor projections of outfielders under $3,500 in our projections.
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