The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
After a busy afternoon, Major League Baseball has a focused, four-game main slate on DraftKings Saturday night. The action gets underway at 7:35 p.m. ET when the Dodgers visit the Yankees in the marquee matchup. The Guardians and Marlins are also scheduled to start at the same time, followed by the Diamondbacks-Padres game an hour later. The late-night hammer is an AL West matchup between the Angels and the Astros in Anaheim. With those eight teams in play, there are some fascinating matchups to consider, so let’s examine some of the top plays from our projections.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Ben Lively ($8,300) Cleveland Guardians (-162) at Miami Marlins
The Guardians are the heaviest favorites on Saturday night’s slate, as they face the fish in Miami. The Marlins have the lowest implied run total on the board, indicating this should be a good spot for Lively. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus as well.
After following a unique path to the MLB that included time in the KBO, Lively has gone 5-2 in his first nine starts for the Guardians this season, with a 2.84 ERA and 3.97 FIP. He has 47 strikeouts in his 50 2/3 innings and has at least four strikeouts in four straight starts.
Lively earned a win along with at least 14 DraftKings points in each of his last four appearances, including two games with over 20 DraftKings points.
Part of the reason for that is that the Marlins are a great matchup. On the season, they have the second-fewest runs scored in the MLB and have the lowest team ISO in the majors. They also have the second-lowest team wOBA and third-lowest wRC+.
In this favorable matchup, Lively is a good place to start building Saturday. While he doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some of the elite starters on larger slates, he has the top projections of the options in play on this four-game slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hunter Brown ($7,100) Houston Astros (-158) at Los Angeles Angels
Brown has the highest strikeout projection on the board on Saturday night and the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all pitchers in THE BAT X. He has the second-highest projections across the board in the FantasyLabs projections as well and is a great value play at barely over $7,000.
Brown had a very rough start to the year, going 0-4 with a 9.78 ERA in his first six starts. Since then, though, he has been able to go 1-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 3.38 xFIP over his last five outings. He has also been able to produce more strikeouts in those outings, racking up 36 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. He faced the Angels in one of those games and allowed just two runs over six solid innings.
In each of his last five starts, he has earned over 12 DraftKings points, with two games of over 20 DraftKings points during that stretch. The 25-year-old righty still has ugly splits across the board after his rocky start, but his last two road outings have resulted in 20.3 and 26.5 DraftKings points, so he seems to be settling in.
The Angels have scored under five runs in 14 straight games, and over the last two weeks, they have the lowest team wOBA and team batting average in the MLB. Over that span, they’re hitting just .195 with an absolutely awful 56 wRC+. They have the second-lowest implied run total on the slate, and Brown will look to have them continue their struggles at the plate, along with his own turnaround in this matchup.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Matt Waldron ($8,100) San Diego Padres (-134) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Waldron has shown a very high ceiling this season, but due to the nature of the knuckleball, his results can be erratic and highly volatile. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections, behind just Brown.
In his last five starts, Waldron has been excellent, allowing just six runs over 29 1/3 innings for an impressive 1.84 ERA and 1.91 FIP. He has racked up 35 strikeouts and walked just six while producing over 15 DraftKings points in each start, and he had two spike starts with over 30 DraftKings points. One of those outings came in his last home start, when he shut the Marlins out for seven innings with eight strikeouts.
Despite all the recent success, there is one major cause for concern with Waldron that makes him high risk: He was absolutely crushed by the Diamondbacks earlier this year. Arizona reached him for eight runs on eight hits in three innings, leaving him with an ugly -9.9 DraftKings points. Arizona has been trending in the right direction, winning five of their last seven, while the Padres had dropped five straight before winning on Friday.
Waldron has plenty of upside and can be dominant when his knuckleball is fluttering at its best. He’s a great fit for GPP contests where you can swing for the fences and accept the inherent risk in backing such an unpredictable pitch.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by projected points using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros are the top stack for the second day in a row against the Angels after scoring seven runs in their series-opening victory on Friday. On Saturday, they’ll face veteran lefty Tyler Anderson. In his 12 starts this season, Anderson is 5-5 with an impressive 2.37 ERA, but his 4.66 FIP and 5.07 xFIP indicate some of that success is due to an unsustainably high strand rate. The league average strand rate is just over 70%, but Anderson’s is 88.7% this season. He’s overdue for some regression, and our projections think it will start Saturday.
Yordan Alvarez has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters using the blended projections described below. Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz have both been scorching hot for the Astros lately. Bregman has five homers in his last nine games, averaging 14.0 DraftKings points per contest. Diaz has homered in four straight games and has specifically smashed lefties all season. Jeremy Pena also has great splits against southpaws and is expected to hit cleanup in a prime run-producing spot.
With Kyle Tucker (shin) hitting the IL, there should also be some bargain potential in the lineup (discussed below) to round out the stack. Overall, the Astros and Guardians are tied for the highest implied run total on this four-game slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500) San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Tatis has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Saturday night’s slate and has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield. He comes into this matchup against Nelson swinging a hot bat and can be a nice pay-up piece in your lineup to consider since he brings such a high ceiling.
On Friday, Tatis stole his seventh base of the season and had three hits to earn 18 DraftKings points and extend his hitting streak to 12 games. During that run, he has hit .449 (22-for-49) with two home runs and a .484 wOBA. He has a hard-hit rate of 66.7% during his streak according to Statcast, which is a huge improvement on his 48.7% hard-hit rate prior to the streak.
Tatis is hitting only .217 against lefties this season, so it’s a good thing he’s facing a righty on Saturday. In addition, 10 of his 11 homers have come against righties like Nelson, whom he has a .374 wOBA against, as you can see in the graphic below. Those strong reverse splits and his great current form make a strong case for Tatis Saturday night.
1B/3B Donavan Solano ($2,800) San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
To help balance out Tatis’ salary or other big bats, Solano is a great way to go cheap and still get consistent production. The veteran has been a regular part of the Padres lineup since the injury to Xander Bogaerts (shoulder), and he could get even more time with Manny Machado (hip) ailing as well.
Solano has the added positional flexibility of playing either corner infield spot and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3B and the third-highest at 1B. In his 21 games for the Padres, Solano is hitting .345 with a .385 wOBA. At home, he is hitting .423 with a .492 wOBA and has thrived against both righties and lefties so far this season. Even though he doesn’t usually bring elite power production, his above-average contact rate is enough to make him a great part of plenty of roster builds on Saturday.
The Padres have several strong plays against Nelson, as you can see using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Mauricio Dubon ($2,800) Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Dubon has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders using the blended projections, and he is a great way to round out your Astros stack on Saturday since he has had so much success against lefties this year.
In his role as a utility man, Dubon has thrived on the road and against lefties. On the road, he’s hitting .345 with a .338 wOBA, but he has been even better against lefties, hitting .350 with a .368 wOBA that gives him an impressive 142 wRC+ against southpaws. Some of the strength of those splits could be due to a small sample size, but throughout his career, he has hit a solid .299 against lefties in almost 400 at-bats.
Dubon didn’t play on Friday but will likely be back in the lineup Saturday against Anderson. Especially with Tucker sidelined, there should be space for him to produce good value on a regular basis over the next week.
