The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball has a small four-game slate this Saturday night, but even though there are only eight teams in the player pool, there are some great matchups to attack for DFS fantasy baseball. The action includes two strong AL matchups between teams with playoff hopes. The Orioles host the Rangers in the first game of the night before the Twins and Mariners meet in Seattle. The Tigers and Angels face off in the other AL game in a matchup that offers good value options on both sides, and in the only NL matchup, the Dodgers visit the Giants in one of the fiercest rivalries in baseball. It should be a great night of fantasy goodness from the diamond!
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($12,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-219) at San Francisco Giants
Glasnow and the Dodgers are the heaviest favorites on the slate, as they look to bounce back after Friday night’s walk-off loss in San Francisco. Glasnow has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of this slate’s starting pitchers using both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He also has the highest strikeout prediction and the lowest opponent’s implied run total.
Coming into this start, Glasnow has thrown exactly 100 innings through his 16 starts for the Dodgers. He leads the MLB with 135 strikeouts, and his 12.15 K/9 is second in the MLB. Glasnow has gone 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 2.64 FIP, and he comes into this start on an impressive roll. He posted back-to-back outings with over 35 DraftKings points by beating the Royals and Angels with 19 total strikeouts in 14 innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits.
Glasnow beat the Giants earlier this season and earned 21.9 DKFP in six innings with seven strikeouts and three runs allowed. The Giants offense has been much improved this season overall, but they’re still a good matchup for Glasnow.
The only real question with Glasnow on Saturday is whether can he do enough to be worth his hefty $12,000 salary. He has the highest pure ceiling by a wide margin, but you will have to get creative with the rest of your salary cap space. Fortunately, there are some value options highlighted later that can help you afford paying up to get Glasnow’s immense, strikeout-driven upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Reese Olson ($6,800) Detroit Tigers (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
Olson doesn’t have the pure strikeout upside that Glasnow offers, but the 24-year-old righty has been solid this season for the Tigers and seems to be back in form after a bump in the road earlier this month. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday night’s starting pitchers in both THE BAT X projections and the FantasyLabs projections.
Olson has a 3.35 ERA and 2.29 FIP over his 15 starts this season, with 72 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings. He allowed 18 runs in a three-start stretch early this month, but he bounced back with six shutout innings in Atlanta two starts ago to earn 27.1 DKFP in a no-decision. Olson followed that up with his second win of the season in his last start, earning 17.9 DKFP with 6 1/3 innings against the White Sox. He pitched six shutout innings to begin that game, but two runners on base in the seventh came around to score after he left.
The Angels scored five runs in each of the first two games of this series and have won five straight after starting this homestand with a sweep of the A’s. Their offense still ranks in the bottom six of the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and wOBA over the last 30 days, and they aren’t a matchup you have to avoid even though they are possibly trending in the right direction.
Olson comes very cheap under $7,000, and he brings solid upside despite his inconsistent strikeout totals. He doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling as the GPP pick discussed below, but he is relatively low-risk since he has been so solid overall this year.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cade Povich ($5,900) Baltimore Orioles (-157) vs. Texas Rangers
Povich is a swing-for-the-fences kind of pick this Saturday night and comes at a bargain rate in this matchup with the World Champion Rangers. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the scheduled starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-most in THE BAT X projections.
The lefty was ranked the No. 9 prospect in the Orioles’ system coming into the season by MLB Pipeline, and he got the call for his MLB debut on June 6. Unfortunately for him, he was pounded by the Blue Jays for six runs in just 5 1/3 innings in that outing. The good news for Povich and the Orioles is that he has looked much better in his three starts since then. Even though he faced good lineups against the Braves, Yankees, and Guardians, he posted a 2.20 ERA and 3.76 FIP ERA in those three starts with 12 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings. He had a career-high 21.9 DKFP against the Braves and 12.0 DKFP in his last start, which was against Cleveland last Monday.
Povich has more strikeout upside than he has shown to this point in the MLB. In his 56 2/3 innings at Triple-A, he had 75 strikeouts for an impressive 11.9 K/9 rate. As he adjusts to the majors, more strikeouts should start to come, which will give him an even higher ceiling.
At this early point in his career, Povich is still boom or bust, which is why I prefer using him in GPP formats. His upside is definitely intriguing though, and he has a great lineup backing him at home on Saturday night against the Rangers (more below).
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles get a good home matchup on Saturday night against Michael Lorenzen and the Rangers. They have the highest implied run total in the four games on Saturday night and will be looking to take their third straight game against the Rangers. Over the last 30 days, the Orioles lead the MLB in runs scored, rank third in team batting average, and rank second in team wOBA and team wRC+.
Lorenzen has been decent overall this season but has allowed righties to hit .295 with a .388 wOBA. Leaning into the right-handed hitters from the Orioles should be a strong strategy this Saturday. Adley Rutschman is hopeful to be back in the lineup after missing Friday’s game due to an injured hand sustained on Thursday. X-rays were negative, so he’ll likely return to his second spot in the lineup Saturday. He was rolling before the injury, going 15-for-40 (.375) with an average of 9.0 DKFP per game over his last 10 contests.
Jordan Westburg, Anthony Santander, and Ryan O’Hearn have also been hot lately and can be included as part of your Orioles stack. Baltimore even offers some lower-cost plays as well with Heston Kjerstad, Cedric Mullins, and Jorge Mateo bringing good Projected Plus/Minus at their salaries.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B/OF Willi Castro ($4,500) Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (Bryce Miller)
Castro has provided the Twins with great versatility this season, playing a wide variety of positions and moving around as injuries to his teammates opened up playing time. Wherever he has played in the field, he has been productive at the plate and recently moved into the lead-off spot in Minnesota’s lineup. In that spot, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of all 2B on this slate and is also in the top 10 in the outfield.
On the season, Castro is hitting .277 with a .359 wOBA, seven homers, and eight stolen bases, but he comes into this matchup in Seattle swinging a hot stick. Over his last 15 games, he is hitting .365 (23-for-63) with three home runs, eight doubles, 15 runs scored, and a .459 wOBA. He’s also riding a 12-game hitting streak.
Whether he fits into your roster construction better in the infield or the outfield, Castro is a solid mid-range target with a high ceiling this Saturday.
SS Zach McKinstry ($2,700) Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
The Tigers lineup is projected to be a great source of value on Saturday, even though they were a letdown in their first two games against the Angels. McKinstry is one of the top options from the lineup since he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops (using the aggregated projections) and the fifth-highest of all hitters on the slate.
McKinstry is only hitting .190 on the season but has been more productive lately, picking up multiple hits and double-digit DKFP in back-to-back starts earlier this week. He’s a nice value option with decent upside from this very low rate.
Against Griffin Canning, McKinstry and the other Tigers’ lefties should be in an especially good matchup since the Angels’ starter has allowed lefties to hit .283 against him this season with a .374 wOBA and 10 homers. Here’s how the Tigers lineup looks using our PlateIQ tool, highlighting how they have hit against righties in the last 30 days:
OF Derek Hill ($2,200) Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (Cade Povich)
Hill has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday and the fourth-highest of all hitters. He’s projected to get the start against lefty Cade Povich for the Rangers and has good potential value since his salary is barely more than the minimum.
Hill has bounced around the last few seasons playing for the Tigers, Mariners, and Nationals organizations before signing with the Rangers this past offseason. The 28-year-old tore up Triple-A, hitting .350 for the Round Rock Express with eight homers, seven stolen bases, and a .445 wOBA. He played five games for the Rangers earlier this season and was called back up on Wednesday. He started two games since then, going 1-for-4 in each game and adding a stolen base on Wednesday. After getting Friday off, he’ll be a good value if he’s back in the mix on Saturday against Povich.
