MLB

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Saturday, June 22)

By Zach Thompson @ZT_Sports
Jun 20, 2024

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

This Saturday, there are four games on the evening slate on DraftKings, but even with a shallower player pool, there is plenty of fun fantasy baseball to check out. The main contests lock at 7:15 p.m. ET when the Braves visit the Yankees and the Brewers and Padres face off in San Diego. Later in the evening, the Nationals are in action at Coors Field against the Rockies, and the Angels and Dodgers bring us the late-night hammer from Los Angeles as they meet in the Freeway Series.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Tyler Glasnow ($11,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-365) vs. Los Angeles Angels

There may have been a more obvious stud pick on a slate than Glasnow on Saturday some time in the history of the world, but I sure can’t remember it. Glasnow has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the starters on the slate by a very wide margin on both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. His Dodgers are by far the heaviest favorites on the slate, and no other starting pitcher comes close to matching Glasnow’s ceiling.

In his first season with the Dodgers, Glasnow has been impressive, going 7-5 in 15 starts with a 3.00 ERA and 2.66 FIP. He leads the National League with a 12.1 K/9 rate and has at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts while totaling 38 strikeouts in 26 innings over that span. In his last start, he dominated a good Royals lineup, giving up just three hits while striking out nine in seven innings for 35.4 DraftKings points. He has averaged 27.0 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 starts.

The Dodgers’ ace should be set up to keep dealing against the Angels, who have scored the second-fewest runs in the MLB over the last 30 days while hitting just .222 as a team with a wRC+ of only 86.

You could fade Glasnow simply to be contrarian since he’s likely going to be popular. It’s hard to make a case for that though, since his ceiling is so much higher than any other starter in play. About the only argument against Glasnow is that playing him as a stud looks too easy.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Cal Quantrill ($6,000) Colorado Rockies (-105) vs. Washington Nationals

The rest of the starting pitching options after Glasnow get pretty wild. So wild in fact that Coors Field seems to be a good solution. Quantrill has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the scheduled starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections, and he has put together enough strong starts recently be worth considering at only $6,000.

Over his last nine games, Quantrill has allowed two runs or fewer seven times with the only two exceptions coming against the mighty Dodgers. Over that stretch, the righty is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 3.35 FIP. Even though Quantrill doesn’t typically get many strikeouts, he has reached over 20 DraftKings points in six of those nine starts.

Before taking the loss against the Dodgers at home in his last start, he had defeated the Phillies and Giants in his last two home starts and also spun a gem at Coors Field against the Mariners earlier this season. The Nationals started their series in Denver strong, but they still rank in the bottom 10 of the MLB in runs scored and team wOBA on the season.

Since the game is at elevation, there’s definitely risk, but Quantrill has shown the ability to succeed in Denver and is a solid play at only $6K, which can help balance out spending up for Glasnow or other big bats discussed below.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Mitchell Parker ($7,400) Washington Nationals (-115) at Colorado Rockies

Parker will take the mound on the other side of the matchup at Coors Field, so he brings a similar risk as Quantrill (and without the proven track record of being able to deal with it). Both pitchers allow a lot of contact, but Parker’s K/9 is slightly higher.

Parker has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of the probable pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.

In his 12 starts this season, the rookie lefty has looked very solid for the Nats, going 5-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.53 FIP. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his 12 starts and has done an excellent job of limiting base runners by holding opponents to a .225 average and only issuing 15 walks all season. If he keeps his WHIP so low, he may be able to survive Coors Field and end up as a good GPP play.

Parker has been better at home than away, but he does get a favorable matchup against the Rockies lineup, which isn’t that intimidating. On the season, the Rockies have only an 84 wRC+ as a team, which is the third-worst in the MLB ahead of only the White Sox and Marlins. They can put up runs at Coors for sure, but they have also been held to three runs or fewer in three of their eight games on their current homestand.

Parker would be an excellent value play in any format if it wasn’t for the Coors Field effect, but since that brings so much volatility, he makes for a good GPP option with nice upside.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

Not even playing at Coors Field can get either the Rockies or Nationals into the top stack spot on this small slate since the Dodgers are in a great matchup in their contest against Zach Plesac and the Angels. Plesac did okay in his first MLB start of the season, allowing three runs in six innings against the Brewers, but he did give up a pair of home runs. He gave up 14 home runs in his 13 starts this year at Triple-A, where he went just 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 6.03 FIP

The top five in the Dodgers’ lineup are the top stack, but swapping in Jayson Heyward, Cavan Biggio, or Gavin Lux can definitely work as well and still provide one of the top stacks on the board.

The start of any of those stacks, though, is Shohei Ohtani, who continues to absolutely dominate this season. Ohtani has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all hitters in the aggregate projections discussed below, and he comes in red hot with seven homers in his last 11 games while hitting .400 (16-for-40) with a .610 wOBA and an average of 17 DK points per contest.

In addition to Ohtani, Freddie Freeman has been heating up and has the second-highest ceiling projections of all hitters on the slate.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

2B Brendan Rodgers ($3,000) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)

After spending two weeks on the IL, Rodgers was activated before Friday’s series opener with the Nats, but he didn’t get in the game off the bench. The 27-year-old righty is expected to be back in the lineup on Saturday night though, and his discounted salary makes him an extremely attractive value play. Rodgers has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on Saturday’s slate using the aggregated projections.

On the season, Rodgers has been solid, hitting .275 with a .306 wOBA, but he was starting to trend in the right direction before landing on the IL. In his last 20 games, he went 24-for-78 (.308) with a .347 wOBA, and he hit two of his three homers in his last nine games before his IL stint.

Rodgers also has very strong splits this year against southpaws, hitting .347 against lefties with two homers and a .399 wOBA. If he’s back in the middle of the Rockies’ batting order with those splits at Coors Field, he’s too good a deal to pass up at only $3,000.

OF Jarred Kelenic ($3,100) Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees (Marcus Stroman)

Kelenic has taken over the lead-off spot for the Braves after injuries to Ronald Acuna (knee) and Michael Harris (hamstring). He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders in the blended projections this Saturday and the second-highest of all hitters on the slate.

The former top prospect has benefited from the change of scenery to Atlanta and is hitting .268 on the season, with six homers, two stolen bases, and a .321 wOBA. He has been great since taking over the top spot in the lineup, averaging 11 DraftKings points per game while going 9-for-28 (.321) with two home runs, a double, and a stolen base. He stayed in the lead-off spot against a lefty on Friday, but he’ll be back on the stronger side of his splits against righty Marcus Stroman this Saturday night.

The Braves have several strong options in play against the Yankees in the hitter-friendly environment of Yankee Stadium, and here’s how they stack up in our PlateIQ tool:

OF Jose Azocar ($2,000) San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Carlos Rodriguez)

Azocar has been mostly used as a pinch-runner and late-inning defensive replacement this season, but he could get a start on Saturday since both Fernando Tatis Jr. (triceps) and Jurickson Profar (knee) were forced to leave Friday night’s win over the Brewers due to injury. If either is sidelined or limited to DH on Saturday, Azocar could start against Carlos Rodriguez, who has struggled in his two MLB outings.

Azocar is hitting just .222 this season but does have a handful of stolen bases. He got back-to-back starts early in the month and had 7.0 DraftKings points in each game, with a double and a stolen base. He has actually hit better against righties (.258) and at home (.229), so he has some splits in his favor in what should be a good matchup.

He’s a punt play to consider if he gets the start since he saves so much salary. His primary fantasy asset is his stolen base and run production potential, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday.

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.