The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball starts a new action-packed month this Saturday, and things get off to a fast start with all teams in action. On Saturday night’s main fantasy baseball slate, there are five games in the spotlight, including three divisional games. The Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, and Phillies were the only teams absent from Friday night’s slate and are all four in play on Saturday night. As we break down all 10 teams, check out the picks our projections indicate will be great plays to build around.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600) Los Angeles Dodgers (-345) vs. Colorado Rockies
Yamamoto has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction, and the Dodgers are the heaviest favorite on the slate, indicating he has a good shot at a win.
Yamamoto is 5-2 in his first 11 starts in the MLB after coming over from Japan. The 25-year-old righty has a 3.51 ERA, but his 2.83 FIP and 2.93 SIERA indicate he has pitched better than that ERA indicates. He has five quality starts and has totaled 69 strikeouts in his 59 innings. He hasn’t been quite as sharp lately, giving up 10 runs over his last three outings, but he should be in a good spot to bounce back in this home contest against the Rockies.
Despite their success over the last few games, the Rockies are still a favorable matchup for Yamamoto. They have the second-lowest team wRC+ in the MLB at just 84 (league average is 100). They also rank in the bottom 10 in road wOBA and road runs scored while posting the sixth-highest K% on the road.
Yamamoto has a very high ceiling in the late game, and he should be ready to help the Dodgers bounce back from losing the series opener against their divisional opponent.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Steele ($7,500) Chicago Cubs (-140) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cubs’ lefty Justin Steele has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday’s starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. Steele had been very shaky since returning from a hamstring injury, but he looked excellent in his last outing.
Steele has been limited to six starts this year since he missed a month and is 0-2 with a 4.45 ERA, 4.46 FIP, and 8.63 K/9 overall. If he can pick up where he left off on Monday, he has a chance to be a great value. He was on the road against the strong Brewers’ offense but came through with 28.8 DraftKings points in a no-decision, allowing just three hits in seven shutout innings with a season-high eight strikeouts. Steele was progressively getting better in his last few starts and looked like he found his groove against Milwaukee.
He should be in a good spot to keep rolling against the Reds, who have been a big disappointment on offense this year. They have the fourth-highest K% in the MLB and the fourth-lowest team wRC+ along with the second-lowest team batting average. They will likely improve on offense as they get healthier and the weather gets warmer, but they have been a good matchup to attack so far this year.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cal Quantrill ($5,500) Colorado Rockies (+270) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Facing the Dodgers is a tough enough matchup to make even the best pitchers high risk, so going against the juggernaut with an option like Quantrill would seem absolutely crazy at the start of the season. Since then, though, Quantrill has been very impressive and shown enough potential to be worth a flier play in GPP contests. The strategy is very risky, but it could pay off since it saves so much salary and goes against the grain.
Quantrill came into his first season with the Rockies after three so-so seasons in Cleveland, highlighted by a 15-win campaign in 2022. This year, he has been excellent and comes in with strong form to this matchup at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium instead of homer-happy Coors Field.
In each of his last five starts, Quantrill has earned over 20 DraftKings points. He has gone 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 32 strikeouts in 31 2⁄3 innings over that span while facing the strong lineups of the Padres, Giants, and Phillies. Quantrill had a 1.71 ERA in May after giving up a 5.34 ERA in March and April.
He will have to take on the stacked Dodgers lineup on Friday night, but recently, the Dodgers have looked fallible. Over the last 30 days, L.A. ranks outside the top 10 in runs scored and team batting average. Their relative struggles and Quantrill’s hot streak make him a viable cheap play even though he is a high-risk, high-reward choice at just over $5,000 (the cheapest starting pitcher in play).
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As is often the case even on much larger slates, the Dodgers have most of the top stacks in our projections. Quantrill has been excellent lately, but the long-term form of the top five in the Dodgers lineup is hard to argue with. They only scored one run on Friday night, but they did score 18 runs during their three-game sweep of the Mets to start the week. Our models say to count on the longer-term form and back them to bounce back on Saturday night.
As always, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are the starting point for the Dodgers stack. Ohtani and Betts have the top two median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters using the aggregated projections described below. Ohtani hit seven homers in his last 23 games while producing a .419 wOBA. He has hit eight of his 14 homers and has a .442 wOBA at home. Betts didn’t have a great May but did go 9-for-26 (.346) with multiple hits in three of the six games on the Dodgers’ road trip to start the week. He has shown signs of coming out of a mini-slump.
Freddie Freeman and Will Smith also bring lots of upside at their upper mid-range salaries, while Gavin Lux, Andy Pages, and even Jayson Heyward can help round out the stack at their more affordable bargain salaries.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
SS Masyn Winn ($3,200) St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
Winn has typically been hitting lead off for the Cardinals against lefties like Suarez, and the 22-year-old is having a breakthrough season in his second year in the MLB. He’s a good way to get value and good run production even though the rest of the Cardinals’ lineup has been scuffling.
In his 50 games this season, Winn is hitting .302 with two homers, a .345 wOBA, and seven stolen bases. He got a day off on Friday before entering as a pinch hitter, and in his previous 10 starts, he averaged 10.1 DraftKings points per game. He had six multi-hit games in his last 14 previous games, hitting .389 with a .439 wOBA.
In the lead-off spot this year, he has gone 5-for-18 (.278) with two doubles and a home run, and at barely over $3,000, he’s a great way to save salary without sacrificing upside Saturday.
1B Ty France ($3,200) Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
The Mariners have built a four-game cushion in the AL West after winning 5-4 on Friday night against the Angels to finish May with five wins in their last six games. They’ll take on lefty Reid Detmers in the second game of their divisional matchup with the Halos, which should set them up to offer good value throughout their lineup.
France was the hero on Friday, smashing a solo home run in the eighth inning as part of a three-hit performance that earned him 28 DraftKings points. Over his last six games, France went 9-for-20 (.450) with a double and two home runs. He has turned things around after a slow start and is hitting .296 with five homers and a .398 wOBA over his last 21 games.
Typically, France hits lefties well and has continued that trend this year with a .275 average and .372 wOBA in the splits. He is also 3-for-13 with a home run and four RBI in his career against Detmers.
Check out how the rest of the Mariners’ lineup stacks up against Detmers using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000) San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees (Cody Poteet)
Yastrzemski has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders using the blended projections. He and the Giants are in a good matchup against Poteet, who will be making just his second start of the season while stepping in for Clarke Schmidt (lat).
Yaz is hitting only .219 on the season but has been heating up lately with five multi-hit performances in his last 14 games while going 13-for-51 (.255) with four doubles, a triple, and two homers for a .345 wOBA. He’s also hitting .286 at home with a .352 wOBA, so he should be a strong value play at $3,000 if he hits second in the order against Poteet.
The Giants have gone 10-4 in their last 14 games and climbed back to .500, and they’ll look to bounce back after losing the series opener on Friday.
