The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Baseball is back, baby! After a quick break for the All-Star game earlier this week, the league jumped right back into pennant races and big slates for DFS fantasy baseball. On Saturday night, the main slate begins at 7:05 and includes nine games, including plenty with potential playoff impact. Three of the games are divisional matchups, including the game at Coors Field between the Giants and the Rockies. With 18 teams in action, there are plenty of matchups to analyze and break down, so let’s jump right into our models for this Saturday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($9,000) Seattle Mariners (-116) vs. Houston Astros
In one of the best matchups of the night, the Mariners host the Astros with the two teams tied for the top spot in the AL West coming into the day. Kirby has the highest median and ceiling projection of all 18 starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Kirby has turned in seven straight quality starts and has posted an impressive 2.11 ERA, 1.88 FIP, and 59 strikeouts over 55 1⁄3 innings over his last nine outings. He hasn’t gotten much run support, but his 0.99 WHIP and FIP rank in the top 10 of qualified starting pitchers this season.
While the Astros have been hitting the ball well lately, Kirby has shown he can succeed against his division rivals. He has allowed just two runs in 12 innings against Houston this season, with nine strikeouts in a pair of six inning no-decisions.
Despite a lack of run support, Kirby has been very consistent, posting over 15 DraftKings points in nine straight starts and averaging 21.9 DraftKings points per start over that stretch. He has a high ceiling with his strikeout stuff and has done a great job limiting damage all season. He didn’t make the All-Star game this season, but his elite control makes him a great option to build around on Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brady Singer ($8,100) Kansas City Royals (-207) vs. Chicago White Sox
Singer and the Royals are the heaviest favorites on the slate this Saturday according to our Vegas Dashboard. The White Sox have been a great matchup to attack all season, and Singer should be in a good spot to hit all the right notes this Saturday. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the fifth-highest ceiling projection in THE BAT X projections.
Singer has gone 5-6 in his 19 starts this season and has a 3.20 ERA, which would be a near career low. He has a 4.01 FIP and 8.57 K/9 to support that ERA and has been especially effective at home, where he has a 2.72 ERA and 3.02 FIP.
In his last start before the break, the Red Sox reached him for four runs, but before that, he was on a nice roll with four total runs allowed in his previous four outings. In those four starts, he picked up 20 strikeouts in 24 1⁄3 innings with a 1.48 ERA and 2.63 FIP.
Singer faced the White Sox twice early in the season and allowed three runs in 11 1⁄3 innings in a pair of no-decisions. The White Sox are a great matchup, since they have scored the fewest runs in the MLB and rank last in the league in wOBA and wRC+. They haven’t been trending up either, ranking last in both wOBA and wRC+ over the last 30 days. The matchup sets up well for Singer in his first start after the break.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kyle Freeland ($5,700) Colorado Rockies (+145) vs. San Francisco Giants
Rolling with Freeland is a high-risk, high-reward play for GPP lineups this Saturday night. Any starting pitcher at Coors Field is always a risky option, but the Rockies are also heavy underdogs in this matchup.
Freeland’s season-long numbers aren’t that awesome, but much of that is from a few bad starts before he missed two months with an elbow strain. Since returning, he has been excellent in four starts, allowing only a total of four runs with a 1.71 ERA, 3.13 FIP, and 7.2 K/9. Two of those games were at home at Coors, and his most recent game was at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Despite those less-than-ideal setups, Freeland has been able to go at least six innings in each of those four starts, earning at least 19 DraftKings points three times.
In his last start on Wednesday against the Reds, Freeland got his only win of the season with a season-high nine strikeouts and 27.6 DraftKings points. Freeland relies heavily on his sinker when he’s at his best, which is how he’s effective at Coors Field, where he has an impressive 1.50 ERA and 2.61 FIP this season.
Freeland’s ownership projection is minuscule, so he’s an excellent contrarian leverage play and could be an outstanding value if he can stay in his recent form.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
One of the top DraftKings stacks in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Plus/Minus and using THE BAT X projections to the Kansas City Royals:
While the Giants will be a popular stack at Coors Field, the Royals are another strong alternative option that brings great value. They face rookie Jonathan Cannon, who has been up and down since being called up in mid-June. He has given up three runs or more in three of his last four outings and has surrendered 16 runs in 18 2⁄3 innings. He has been especially hittable by lefties, who have a .316 average, six home runs, and a .407 wOBA.
The Royals offer two bargain lefties in their lineup with Adam Frazier and Kyle Isbel. Frazier has been hitting lead off, and Isbel typically hits ninth, making them a wraparound stack with big bats Bobby Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Witt has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters in THE BAT X projections. He went 3-for-3 and smashed his 17th homer of the season on Friday, finishing with 26 DraftKings points in the series opener. On the season, Witt has a .328 batting average and .398 wOBA and has added 22 stolen bases to those 17 home runs. He’s the centerpiece to build around against Cannon this Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
In this example for Saturday’s slate, we’ll highlight some of the hitters that stand out in the premium add-in of THE BAT X projections.
2B Ketel Marte ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)
Marte and the Diamondbacks won 5-2 at Wrigley on Friday, and they’ll be in a good matchup against Hendricks on Saturday night. Marte went to the All-Star game batting lead off for the NL, and the fact that he made the trip shows that he’s past the back injury that cost him some time earlier this month. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all 2B in THE BAT X projections.
In each of his last five starts, Marte picked up multiple hits each of his last five starts and put up at least 19 fantasy points three times. He hit .377 (23-for-61) over his last 16 games with three homers, three stolen bases, and an average of 11.3 DraftKings points per game.
Marte has a great blend of power and speed upside, and he and Corbin Carroll ($4,600) make a great mini stack atop the DBacks batting order. See how the rest of the squad lines up using our PlateIQ tool:
C Connor Wong ($3,800) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (Justin Wrobleski)
Wong didn’t start for the Red Sox on Friday night, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup Saturday, as the Sox take on lefty Wrobleski. Wong has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all catchers in THE BAT X projections.
The 28-year-old backstop is in the middle of a breakout season and has especially smashed lefties. On the year, he’s hitting .306 after only batting .235 last season, and he has improved his wOBA from .292 to .354.
Against lefties, he has been an even better .317 with three homers and a .382 wOBA. He hit .286 in his last 25 games before the break, with three homers and a .346 wOBA. The Red Sox have been carefully managing his workload, so he should be fresh down the stretch and remain a solid value behind the plate, where offense can be tricky to find.
OF Andrew Benintendi ($2,600) Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Thirty players with salaries under $3,000 are expected to be in starting lineups this Saturday by THE BAT X projections. Benintendi has the highest median projection and the highest ceiling projection of those 30 players and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate behind only Shohei Ohtani and Jorge Soler.
Benintendi has been hitting second for the White Sox and has averaged 6.6 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests by hitting .265 (9-for-34) with two doubles, a home run, and a stolen base. Benintendi went 3-for-4 with a home run and 26 DraftKings points in his last game before the All-Star Break, and he brings that kind of high ceiling despite his low numbers on the season.
His opponent on Saturday, Brady Singer, has let lefties hit .297 this season with a .388 wOBA. While the White Sox don’t have a lot of worthwhile bats to be boosted by that split, Benintendi can be a great cost-saving option due to those splits and his recent success.
